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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 19

 

Personal opinions today: 

 

The US President has no intention of scrapping the extra tariffs, and investment will fall. U.S. Dow futures failed to close higher, international crude oil prices also failed to close higher. The dollar fell below 108.6 against the yen as Dow futures fell and gold and silver prices rose. The dollar fell as markets focused on the impeachment of the U.S. President by congress and the release of the FOMC minutes soon. European currency analyst comments by banking institutions, it is expected that the Brexit will be solved in the first quarter of 2020. The European central bank has no intention to increase monetary policy significantly and cut interest rates. Expect the Euro and pound next year rebound momentum will be more obvious, suggested by the end of this year, the European currency can consider low absorption. Gold prices, along with monetary policy from the European central bank and the federal reserve, are bearish.

 

Note: * refers to the degree of importance

 

08:30 RBA minutes **

15:00 Swiss October Trade account **

17:00 Eurozone current account **

19:00 UK CBI industrial orders difference *

21:30 U.S. building permits **

21:30 U.S.  housing starts total **

22:00 Federal reserve Williams speaks ***

The next day 05:30 U.S.  API crude oil stocks ***

 

Euro/dollar

1.1085/1. 1100 resistance

1.1055/1.1045 support

The dollar index fell as the U.S. President was impeached by congress and watched the minutes of the federal reserve board meeting. Polls in the UK parliamentary election were positive, and an analysis by the banking institute showed that the Euro gained indirectly as monetary easing by the European central bank and Brexit became clear. But for now, markets are waiting for the federal reserve to release its monetary policy record on Thursday morning. But it could start to limit the Euro’s gains against the dollar.

 

British pound to dollar

1.2935/1.2945 resistance

1.2875/1.2865 support

Opinion polls suggest Britain's ruling conservative party could win an election in December, leaving the EU in place and allowing an orderly Brexit by the end of January to resolve the crisis and boost pound. Technically, short-term focus 1.2980 important resistance. If there is no breakthrough, the trend may adjust, suggest a correction to 1.2820 or below, and then see the situation to buy pound dollar and other related cross.

 

Australian dollar to US dollar

0.6825/0.6835 resistance

0.6775/0.6765 support

Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy, pessimistic stance, looking forward to moderate economic growth in the future, affecting investment confidence in the Australian dollar. On the other hand, the Australian dollar faces the international trade tariff dispute, if not resolved early, the Australian dollar rise against the United States dollar is limited, and limit the rise of the New Zealand dollar. Keep in mind that international trade disputes can be resolved by mid-december. If the short - term trade negotiations progress, ready to boost the Australian dollar. At the recommended level of 0.67, the aussie has a chance to rebound.

 

Dollar/Japanese yen

108.80/108.90 resistance

108.30/108.20 support

International trade disputes, the President of the United States investment will affect the mood of speech,  the Dow futures and the Nikkei index futures may extend to fall against the yen, the dollar fell. On the contrary, if the issue is resolved or expected to cool down, Dow and Nikkei futures are up and the dollar could see significant resistance against the yen, 109.05 and 109.40.

 

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar

1.3235/1.3245 resistance

1.3185/1.3175 support

The market expects progress on the U.S. -Canada trade deal to be made within December and boost demand for crude oil in the fourth quarter, which could boost the Canadian dollar if oil prices rise. In contrast, any international trade dispute could affect Canadian exports and oil prices. It is recommended to keep an eye on the trend of crude oil price and understand the trend of Canadian dollar.

 

United States crude oil futures

57.35/57.55 resistance

56.05/55.85 support

U.S. President remarks, which renewed an international trade dispute, reduced demand for crude oil in the fourth quarter. Technically, the current international trade negotiations have run into problems, the crude oil price adjustment, the first target is expected to be $56.75. If the trade dispute intensifies, U.S. crude oil futures could test 55.85 support.

 

Gold

1478/1480 resistance

1467/1465 support

U.S. President speaks against trade talks, venture capital sentiment has cooled and risk aversion has increased, Dow futures have pared gains and are likely to fall further, and gold prices have seen more downside opportunities. If events do not resolve in the short term, gold can test resistance at $1,480. Gold could also break through that resistance, depending on the downward trend in Dow futures.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

28080/28125 resistance

27830/27750 support

The US President has agreed to resolve a trade deal with Mexico and Canada by the end of the year. But hopes of a successful trade deal between China and the United States next month, which is likely to be repeated, could bullish Dow futures after a phone call between the two countries tonight. Markets are watching the minutes of the fed's monetary policy meeting and progress in international trade negotiations. Technically, if Dow futures adjust to fall, it could test 27830 or 27750 support.

 

BTCUSD:

8380/ 8480 resistance

7950/ 7885support

Technically, the crypto currency demand decreased, the trend bearish Bitcoin price. Now the bitcoin price break US8350 support, looking at US7885 support. Without any good news for crypto currency, the bitcoin price could keep downtrend.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

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<JB Area>：20.11.2019