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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 21

 

Personal opinions today: 

 

The FOMC minutes released that the current level of interest rate is appropriate and that they have no intention to consider a rate cut in the short term and will not view a negative interest rate policy. The comments helped explain expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates. However, some officials expressed concern that the global trade war would affect the economy of the United States and the global economy. If US consumption and economic growth slow, it will consider cutting interest rates. Then, after the US President expressed dissatisfaction with the progress of China's trade deal, the market worried that the first phase of the US-China trade deal delayed. Dow futures were fell more than 100 points from the close of the day, lifting gold prices. The dollar index was also affected, with other significant currencies rising against the dollar. Crude oil prices have been affected by a substantial increase in crude oil inventories down. But the Fed minutes and the Russian President and government support for a production cut, the crude oil prices rebounded, reached as high as $57.

 

Today focus, The ECB minutes, Bank of Canada, Charles speech and the U.S. existing home sales. U.S. existing home sales results maybe affected the US dollar, Dow and commodity market.

 

Note: * refers to the degree of importance

 

15:30 Swiss industrial output in Q3 **

17:30 U.K. government balance **

20:30 ECB minutes ***

21:30 U.S. jobless claims last week ***

21:30 Philadelphia fed manufacturing index **

21:40 Bank of Canada, Charles speech ***

23:00 U.S. existing home sales **

23:00 U.S. CB leading indicators *

 

Euro/dollar

1.1085/1. 1095 resistance

1.1055/1.1045 support

European central bank officials say growth in the European economy is slowing in the short term and could pick up in the first half of next year. But growth in Europe is expected to remain low next year, suggesting monetary policy will remain loose and keeps negative interest rates will be maintained to limit the Euro’s gains. Technically, if the dollar falls, the Euro has a chance to break through 1.11. Otherwise, the Euro still has a chance to test 1.09 against the dollar. Currently, watch for 1.1085 or 1.1095 resistance and lower target 1.1055 or 1.1045 support.

 

British pound to dollar

1.2935/1.2945 resistance

1.2875/1.2865 support

Markets are optimistic about the U.K. conservative party return to the House of Commons, predicting a strong chance of victory in next month's general election, as well as an orderly Brexit next year. But with the result of next month's UK general election, limited the British pound gains against US dollar. On the other hand, the U.S. President criticised the Fed for the slow pace of interest rate cuts, and some Fed officials were dovish comments, which were bearish for the dollar and bullish for the pound. Technically, the short-term focus 1.2945 important resistance. If there is no breakthrough the important resistance, the trend may adjust. There is an opportunity to approach to 1.2865 support.

 

Australian dollar to US dollar

0.6815/0.6825 resistance

0.6785/0.6775 support

The US President's comments have once again triggered China's trade deal. The market is worried that the first phase of the agreement cannot be signed in December, and the additional tariffs are once again being imposed, which is bearish for the Australian dollar. Technically, it is recommended to support the Australian dollar at levels of 0.6785 or 0.6775. The dollar's move was helped by the Fed’s dovish commentary in monetary policy, could bullish AUDUSD.

 

Dollar/Japanese yen

108.75/108.85 resistance

108.30/108.20 support

The U.S. President, unsanitary with the progress and pace of trade deal, also criticized the federal reserve's monetary policy, which bearish the dollar. In addition, trade tensions heats up, the Dow futures and the Nikkei index futures fell, the dollar fell against the yen to follow the steps. For now, the key is the Fed’s monetary policy record showed the direction of dollar interest rates. More importantly, the lack of progress in trade deals between the United States and China, cannot change the investment climate, tend to cause the dollar to fall against the yen. Technically, if Dow and Nikkei futures rebound, the dollar could test significant resistance against the Japanese yen.

 

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar

1.3335/1.3345 resistance

1.3280/1.3270 support

Progress on a U.S.-Canada trade deal is expected in December, though, and a deal could be signed next month. The both sides have not fully reached an deal, the market on the prospects of fear, continue to bearish the Canadian dollar. Technically, it could use OPEC and Russia government coming to cut crude production, bullish oil prices and bullish the Canadian dollar. Currently the resistance could observed at 1.3345.

 

United States crude oil futures

57.35/57.55 resistance

56.05/55.85 support

The U.S. President's comments and a sharp rise in U.S. API crude inventories are bearish for crude oil prices. The current global trade deal with US, have encountered difficulties. The crude oil prices may still need to correction. But with OPEC and the Russian government agreeing to cut output, the price of crude oil could support. It may believe that first support at $55.85. If Crude oil prices rebound, the key resistance would looking at $58 barrier.

 

Gold

1478/1480 resistance

1467/1465 support

Dow futures fell yesterday and gold rebounded from a low of $1,465, after FOMC minutes and US President speech. If Dow futures continue to fall, gold is expected to test $1,480 resistance. Expect in short term, the gold would test $1472 support. The next support bit, observed at $1,465 support.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

27890/28015 resistance

27530/27450 support

The market did not confirm whether the US government would sign a trade deal with China and Canada in mid-December, and investment sentiment dropped. FOMC minutes showed it was not considering cutting interest rates. Investors are worried about the fourth-quarter economic growth and corporate earnings. Dow futures continued to correction for the recent monthly gains. Technically, Dow futures correction, it may be down to 27450 key support.

 

BTCUSD:

8380/ 8480 resistance

7950/ 7885 support 

Technically, the crypto currency demand decreased, bearish Bitcoin price. Now the bitcoin price under US8350 support, looking at lower to US7885 support. However, US President and Fed officials comments and Dow future fell. That is good news for crypto currency; the bitcoin price could reverse and uptrend. If the bitcoin price over US8480 resistance, it could test US9000.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

 

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<JB Area>：27.11.2019