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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 25

 

Personal opinions today: 

 

Last week Germany Q3 GDP growth rate final was 1%. Preliminary manufacturing PMI readings for Germany and the Eurozone rose slightly in November. The ECB President, Christine Lagarde, spoke as markets expected continued slow growth in the Eurozone. ECB would announce stimulus measures in the short term and consider further monetary easing if necessary. The comments sent the Euro down. The UK manufacturing and services PMI continued to slow in November, while the US economy and the Michigan consumer confidence index finally rose in November, the US dollar strengthened and British pound correction to 1.28 level.

 

European markets today focused on the difference between the German November IFO business sentiment index and UK November's CBI retail sales. The performance of the direct impact on the British pound, indirect impact on the Euro. During U.S. trading hours, Canada reported September wholesale sales. Then the US Dallas Fed business activity index for November. Canadian dollar investors, worth watching Canada September wholesale sales. The dollar index and dollar assets are more likely to be influenced by the November performance of the Dallas fed business activity index, and indirectly by the price of gold and crude oil. New Zealand reports Q3 retail sales tomorrow morning. Based on last week's rise in the New Zealand producer price index, we believe there is an opportunity for retail sales to grow. Estimates before the release of the New York dollar. Finally, depending on the result, see whether to test 0.6450 resistance.

 

Besides, this weekend is the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, Friday trading day is short. At the same time need to consider the opportunity to correct the position of investment institutions, a variety of asset prices may reverse the trend.

 

Note: * refers to the degree of importance

 

17:00 German IFO business sentiment index **

19:00 UK CBI retail sales gap *

21:30 Canada wholesale sales **

23:30 U.S. November Dallas Fed business activity index **

 

Euro/dollar

1.1045/1. 1055 resistance

1.1015/1.1005 support

European central bank President Christine Lagarde said she expected Europe's economic growth to remain low next year and said the monetary policy would keep interest rates negative, limiting the Euro’s gains. Subsequently, the US Michigan consumer confidence index finally rose in November, the dollar strengthened, and the Euro fell against the dollar, which had a chance to break through 1.1015 support. The U.S. economy, the market's focus this week, is Wednesday and Thursday. Following relevant European data on Thursday and Friday, the Euro is still expected to be dominated by U.S. economic data early this week. Until the Fed Beige Book, the Euro was dominated by Eurozone economic data.

 

British pound to dollar

1.2890/1.2905 resistance

1.2830/1.2820 support

U.K. manufacturing and services PMI in November were bearish for pound. Meanwhile, US economic data strengthened, pound broke 1.2905 support. Then according to this analysis, the trend continues to adjust. Pound breakthrough 1.2890 and 1.2865 support respectively last Friday. At the beginning of this week is expected by the US economic data and the Fed Beige Book. It is expected to limit the rise of the pound, mainly to see the resistance of 1.2905.

 

Australian dollar to US dollar

0.6815/0.6825 resistance

0.6785/0.6775 support

There are still uncertainties in the trade deals. The market is worried that the U.S. will fail to resolve the trade deals in December, which will affect the economic growth in the Q4, and may affect Australia's export trade and economic prospects next year, which is bearish for the Australian dollar. Tomorrow morning, New Zealand and Australia economic data, it is worth noting that the related short-term currencies may adjust the recent decline, a slight rebound. Technically, it is recommended to support the Australian dollar at levels of 0.6785 or 0.6775. Also, if the United States and China get a positive response in the trade talks, the trade ministries of the two countries can conclude the first phase of the trade agreement next month and postpone the implementation of additional tariffs in December, which could help further bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

 

Dollar/Japanese yen

109.05/109.15 resistance

108.55/108.45 support

Trade talks between the United States and the rest of the world are fraught with uncertainty and investment tensions. Dow futures fell, which had affected the dollar's fall against the yen. The China government has reportedly continued to offer positive response to U.S. trade officials and invited the U.S. trade secretary to Beijing China next month to discuss a trade deal. Expected to increase investment confidence, the dollar rose against the yen. Over the weekend, especially in Asian market time today, the USDJPY is testing 108.80 resistance. Technically, if Dow and Nikkei futures rebound, the dollar could test the next significant resistance against the yen 109.40.

 

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar

1.3310/1.3320 resistance

1.3255/1.3245 support

Both OPEC and the Russian government have agreed to plan to discuss a deal to reduce crude production in December. Bullish crude oil prices, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar. If Canada makes progress on a trade deal with the United States, it could boost the Canadian dollar. Canada today reported September wholesale sales, in the short term to watch the USDCAD could test 1.3255 or 1.3245 support.

 

United States crude oil futures

59.05/59.35 resistance

57.05/56.85 support

OPEC and the Russian government plan, and initially agreed to cut crude oil production, bullish crude oil prices. If the trade talks succeed, crude oil prices could test $58 or over. Technical, pay attention to the crude oil futures price $60 significant resistance, suggested that the crude oil price on the $59 level, it has chance to reversal!

 

Gold

1469/1471 resistance

1452/1448 support

FOMC minutes showed the Fed has no intention of cutting interest rates. China's trade ministry has invited the US trade minister to Beijing China to discuss and look forward to signing the first phase of a trade agreement. Short - term market less harmful news and adverse sentiment, bearish gold. Besides, Dow futures moved higher, the dollar index rebounded, short - term watch gold prices down $1458 support. If the breakthrough is expected to explore the $1452 and $1448 support.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

28105/28215 resistance

27720/27655 support

US economic data were better than the market expected last week. Also, the China trade ministry invited U.S. trade officials to visit China. The first phase of a trade agreement between the two countries is expected to be signed in December, and the temporary suspension of additional U.S. tariffs on China imports is expected. The investment climate is expected to improve. Dow futures could get a boost if the U.S. government follows through on its agreement to visit China. Technically, the short-term focus Dow futures 27720 and 27655 support. Overhead first target 28105 and second target 28215 resistance.

 

BTCUSD:

7085/ 7180 resistance

6450/ 6250 support 

Here we mentioned over a month, the cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885 support., next target to US7550. These all mark broke. If any reasons let Dow future fell, it is good news for cryptocurrency, and the bitcoin price could rebound. But now, the bitcoin price could test US6450 or US6250 support. Critical support, it would US5800.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

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