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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 28

 

Personal opinions today: 

 

The final reading of U.S. real GDP in the third quarter was 2.1%, up sharply from 1.9% in the previous report. Besides, the jobless claims fell to 210,000 last week, a significant improvement from the past two weeks. The only disappointment was a drop in personal income and consumer spending, coupled with a lower than an expected PCE price index. The market has been watching the U.S. economy as a whole, depending on the Fed monetary policy direction. This morning, the Fed Beige Book economic report noted that the U.S. economy expanded modestly between October and mid-November, with an optimistic outlook for overall economic growth, a still-tight job market across the country and modest upward pressure on wages. The report said consumer spending was stable to moderate in most of the 12 federal jurisdictions, while retail and manufacturer costs rose in some areas, some citing tariffs. These factors support Dow futures continue to create new highs to close. But with the long U.S. Thanksgiving holiday expected this weekend, investors and investors are cautious and retail sales likely to reposition ahead of the holiday season, which could limit gains in dow futures and asset prices.

 

[Important financial data and events] 

note: * is important

 

U.S. stocks were closed on the eve of the Thanksgiving holiday, and the market for commodity futures contracts closed early

 

18:00 Eurozone economic and industrial sentiment index **

18:00 Eurozone consumer confidence index Final **

21:00 German CPI preliminary ***

21:30 Canada Q3 current account ***

 

EURUSD 

1.1020/1. 1030 resistance

1.0995/1.0985 support

Despite recent lacklustre European economic data, the President of the European central bank said the monetary policy would remain negative for an extended period, which would be bad for the euro. The Fed Beige Book report showed a message of moderate U.S. growth, bullish for the dollar and bearish for the euro. Today's final reading on consumer confidence in the Eurozone and the preliminary reading on the German CPI for November. On the sidelines, the short - term may be bullish for the Euro. The Euro could test 1.1030 against the dollar if Germany beats market expectations for its November CPI reading. Conversely, if the data is weak, the euro could check 1.0985 support against the dollar. If the support is broken, 1.0955 support will be tested.

 

British pound to dollar

1.2960/1.2970 resistance

1.2875/1.2865 support

The pound was boosted by British opinion polls showing the ruling conservative party leading by a wide margin to win the House of Commons election in December and lead by a wide margin to lead an orderly Brexit. British pound broke through resistance at 1.2905 yesterday and is expected to be closed for the US holiday without US economic data.

 

Australian dollar to dollar 

0.6795/0.6805 resistance

0.6755/0.6745 support

Confidence in the Australian economy continued to fall and reserve bank of Australia chairman Lowe was bearish on the Australian dollar after her comments on inflation were negative. This morning, the US President signed the Civil Rights Act, which may affect the US-China trade talks, indirectly bearish for the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar had tested 0.6755 support against the U.S. dollar. If the Chinese government does not respond today, believed that it would remove the risk of the Australian dollar falling. As long as China's trade negotiations with the United States succeed. Technically, if AUDUSD can break through 0.6805 resistance, see 0.6855 or 0.6885 for lower targets.

 

Dollar to Japanese yen

109.55/109.65 resistance

109.10/109.00 support

The U.S. dollar rose against the yen on the back of positive news from the U.S. Fed Beige Book economic conditions report on the U.S. economy. If we break 109.15 in the first stage, we will break through the significant resistance in the next level. At present, if the USDJPY to maintain the upward trend, could test 109.65 or 109.85 resistance. However, considering the U.S. holiday, investment climate under the cautious, estimated current direction has an opportunity to adjust. Technically, target support bit 109.00 is supported.

 

USDCAD 

1.3310/1.3320 resistance

1.3275/1.3265 support

Canada and the United States have made tentative progress on a trade deal but still, haven't reached an agreement on parts of it. Technically, USDCAD would test 1.3320 resistance. If crude oil stays above $57 and breaks above $58.50, it could be bullish the Canadian dollar. It would check 1.3265 support.

 

US crude oil futures

58.50/59.05 resistance

57.05/56.85 support

OPEC and the Russian government initially agreed to cut crude oil production, bullish crude oil prices. International trade climate needs to improve further, with crude oil expected to test $58. U.S. economic data and the Fed Beige Book report, which showed strong economic growth, are expected to help lift oil prices. If the trend reverses, keep an eye on the first target, 56.85 support.

 

Gold

1463/1465 resistance

1453/1451 support

Real U.S. GDP growth beat market expectations in the third quarter, the Fed Beige Book showed economic growth, and Dow futures rose to limit gold's gains in the $1,461 to $1,463 range. If markets remain optimistic about the prospects for the U.S. economy, the success of international trade deals and Brexit. Believe that the price of gold downward opportunities higher. If support breaks $1,451, have a chance to look at $1,445 to $1,442.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

28160/28215 resistance

28030/27975 support

China and the U.S. in active trade talks, U.S. GDP growth beat expectations in the third quarter, the Fed Beige Book showed a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, and investment sentiment picked up, boosting Dow futures to a record close. Dow futures had broken through 28160, testing resistance on the second target of 28215. Dow futures are expected to recheck resistance on the belief that U.S. Thanksgiving holiday spending will increase. Technically, short - term critical support pay attention to 27975 support. If the support bit is broken, it may further test 27795 support to 27680 support.

 

BTCUSD:

7750/ 7885 resistance

7250/ 7050 support 

The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885, keeps to looking the trends go down. If any reasons let Dow future fell, it is good news for cryptocurrency, the bitcoin price could rebounds and probably over US7885.

 

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