ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.11.29
Personal opinions today:
U.S. Dow closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, and the market for commodity futures contracts was closed early. Today also the holiday, Dow and the US CME and ICE market close. But the market is focused on the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday spending growths, increased confidence to invest and predict the earnings growth as well. Besides, it could help U.S. economic growth and inflation, provide insight into Q4 corporate earnings, and gauge Dow futures growth and crude oil demand.
The markets are watching the results of the House of Commons election poll at 6 PM today. A lead for the ruling conservative party would mean a return to the Commons in mid-December, Britain as it prepares to pass the Brexit by the end of January. If that happens, the British pound will have a chance to rebound and challenge the 1.30 resistance, and gold will have an opportunity to fall.
During the afternoon, the European market trading early, the European data is more worthy of reference to bring the European currency trend and gold price performance. The first reading of the Eurozone consumer price index for November and the German unemployment rate for November were more closely watched today. Investors in the Canadian dollar should pay more attention to Canada GDP in September, and the outcome will affect the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
U.S. stocks were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, and markets for commodity futures contracts were closed early
07:30 Japan unemployment rate **
15:45 France Q3 GDP final annualized **
15:45 France CPI **
16:30 Switzerland KOF economic leading indicator *
16:55 German unemployment rate ***
17:30 Bank of England mortgage license *
18:00 UK house of Commons election research results ***
18:00 Eurozone CPI preliminary annualized rate ***
21:30 Canada GDP **
EURUSD
1.1020/1. 1030 resistance
1.0995/1.0985 support
Europe's economic data were flat, bearish for the Euro. Yesterday's final reading on Eurozone consumer confidence for November and the first reading on Germany's monthly CPI rate for November continued to disappoint markets, with the euro falling back after failing to test $1.1020. Germany's unemployment rate for November and the Eurozone CPI annualized rate for November were released today. If the data is weak, the Euro could test 1.0985 support against the dollar. If support is broken, 1.0955 support will be tested.
British Pound to a dollar
1.2960/1.2970 resistance
1.2875/1.2865 support
At 6 PM today, a research of the UK's House of Commons election will be released which will predict the proportion of seats in the House of Commons for the next leader of the UK. The pound was boosted by the prospect of a conservative leader that could lead to a smooth and orderly Brexit. Preliminary estimates suggest that the first phase targets 1.2960 or 1.2970 resistance. Instead, the pound fell, temporarily targeting 1.2865 support.
Australian dollar to dollar
0.6795/0.6805 resistance
0.6755/0.6745 support
The lack of formal success in trade deals between China and the United States is more likely to be influenced by other political factors. Also, as the Australian economy continues to slow, investors are betting on further rate cuts by the RBA next monetary meeting. If these problems can be solved, the Australian dollar will have a chance to rebound against the U.S. dollar. Technically, AUDUSD is expected to test 0.6805 resistance, and support is noted for 0.6745 support.
Dollar to Japanese yen
109.60/109.70 resistance
109.30/109.20 support
U.S. stocks were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, Dow futures and the Nikkei were little changed, and the dollar traded in a tight range against the Japanese yen. But today's weak Japanese industrial data offset the performance of the Japanese inflation data, and the dollar had tested 109.60 resistance against the Japanese yen. Technically, there is no other incentive for the dollar to break out further against the Japanese yen, allowing it to try out support at 109.30 or 109.20.
USDCAD
1.3310/1.3320 resistance
1.3275/1.3265 support
Canada and the United States have made tentative progress on a trade deal but still, haven't reached a deal on parts of it. Technically, USDCAD testing 1.3320 resistance. If crude oil stays above $57 and breaks above $58.50, it could boost the Canadian dollar. USDCAD could test 1.3265 support.
US crude oil futures
58.50/59.05 resistance
57.05/56.85 support
Recent U.S. economic data and the Fed Beige Book showed economic growth, are believed to bullish for the crude oil prices. A rise in U.S. consumption over the Thanksgiving holiday after the end of the week could help lift crude oil prices to the resistance between $59 and $60. Short - term market wait-and-see atmosphere is energetic, expect to have the opportunity to correct the prices. Technically note 57.05 or 56.85 support.
Gold
1461/1463 resistance
1453/1451 support
U.S. Real Q3 GDP growth beat market expectations, with the Fed Beige Book indicating economic growth and lowering the Fed rate cut. Limit gold prices to $1, 461 resistance. This afternoon, check out the U.K. House of Commons election research result. It remains to be seen whether the proportion of seats in the House of Commons will reflect the smooth and orderly Brexit. At present preliminary assessment, the gold price opportunity to reach lower. Technically, if gold breaks through $1,451 support, it has a chance to look at $1,445 to $1,442.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28160/28215 resistance
28030/27975 support
The Dow market was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. The Dow futures market was closed early. But estimates of Thanksgiving spending growth, bullish Dow. If the results are correct, Dow futures could again test resistance at 28160 or 28215. Technically, short - term critical support pay attention to 27975 support. If the support is broken, it may further check 27795 support to 27680 support.
BTCUSD:
7750/ 7885 resistance
7250/ 7050 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price under US7885, keeps to looking at the trends go down. If any reasons let Dow future fell, it is good news for cryptocurrency; the bitcoin price could rebound and probably over US7885.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
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