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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 10

 

Personal opinions today: 

 

In the first quarter of 2020, the first black swan event occurred due to the sharp drop in US Treasury yields and the price of crude oil, and the global financial market fluctuated.

 

Dow futures and global stock markets fell as a new bout of pneumonia weighed on confidence in the economic outlook. Investors and financials expect the federal reserve to meet next week and possibly cut the federal interest rate further. Futures rates suggest the rate cut could be increased from 0.75% to 1%. Traders estimate the chance of a 1% rate cut at 70. US Treasury yields continued to fall but rose slightly before the start of trading in Asia today as equity markets steadied following the US President's tax cut comments. The dollar index and Dow futures began to narrow losses in Asian trading, believing investors were buying the dollar and Dow component at bargain prices. Rising stocks weigh on gold prices.

 

[Important financial data and events to watch]

Note: * importance

 

Daylight saving time begun in the United States

09:30 China February CPI annual rate * * *

15:45 French industrial output in January * *

18:00 U.S. February NFIB small business confidence index * *

18:00 Eurozone Q4 GDP revised ***

24:00 EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook * *

The next day 04:30 U.S. API crude stocks change * * *

 

EURUSD 

1.1445/1.1455 resistance

1.1350/1.1340 support

In Europe today, Eurozone Q4 GDP revised, which may have implications for this week's European Central Bank interest rate decision. In addition, the dollar index is stable, and there are signs of a rebound, believe that the Euro reverse upward. A preliminary estimate, the first support at 1.1340. If the EURUSD moves from a recent low of 1.1095 to 1.1495, adjusted 50%, the target is 1.1295. As we can see from the hour charts, the 10 - and 20-hour moving averages have shown signs of a decline. Investors should keep an eye out!

 

The pound to the dollar

1.3095/1.3115 resistance

1.3000/1.2985 support

British and European Brexit trade talks continue to be deadlocked. The two sides say they hope to complete the negotiations by the end of the year. Currently, it is recommended to note the initial significant resistance. If the pound follows the euro decline, the pound-dollar reverse 50%, the target is 1.2985. As we can see from the hour charts, the 10 - and 20-hour moving averages have shown signs of a decline. Investors should keep an eye out!

 

Australian dollar to dollar

0.6590/0.6600 resistance

0.6535/0.6525 support

After the black swan event in the market yesterday, the Australian dollar had fallen sharply against the US dollar, as low as 0.6300. Short term technical action, the AUDUSD to limit 0.66 resistance range, preliminary estimates approaching 0.6535 or 0.6525 support. The decline continued, we can look down to the important support 0.6455.

 

Dollar to Japanese yen

104.45/104.60 resistance

102.90/102.80 support

Yesterday, the black swan effect even accelerated the speed of Japanese corporate capital flow back to Japan, the dollar to the yen fell sharply, as low as 101.2. It is believed that the 101 level has reached the goal of Japanese corporate capital repatriation. Coupled with a slight narrowing of the decline in U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, financial markets began to stabilise. Investors are looking back at negative fundamentals in Japan, where the dollar to yen is expected to approaching 104.65 yen. Of course, if the global stock markets will fall, the dollar may try again at its 2016 low of 101 against the yen. It is recommended to keep a close eye on movements in global stock markets, especially Dow futures, to track the dollar-yen trend.

 

US dollar/Canadian dollar

1.3680/1.3700 resistance

1.3615/1.3605 support

Crude oil prices fell yesterday, helping to undermine the Canadian dollar, after a meeting of OPEC and energy ministers to discuss a deal to cut output failed. The price of crude then stabilized and bounced back to us $30, with the Canadian dollar rising to recoup some of yesterday's losses. Technically, the reference USDCAD may test resistance level 1.3700. Believe, only the oil prices rebound, the U.S. dollar is expected to fall against the Canadian dollar, the target is next to test the 1.35 level.

 

US crude oil futures

35.15/35.45 resistance

29.55/29.00 support

Oil prices fell after a meeting of OPEC and energy ministers failed to discuss cutting output. It followed a meeting of energy ministers and executives from major oil producers, who pledged to stabilize demand for crude and boost prices. In the short term, U.S. crude futures could stay as low as $29 and cut their losses if they break above their historic low of $25.96. The initial target is $35, and further tries are $40 to $45.

 

Gold

1680/1683 resistance

1650/1648 support

Gold rose as high as $1, 700 yesterday following the black swan event. As the global stock market tumbled, gold prices fell sharply, dropping below support at $1,680 for the first time, to a low of $1,657. If dow futures and global equities continue to rally, gold could see support at $1,650 to $1,648.

 

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

25230/25500 resistance

24270/23745 support

Stocks fell yesterday as investors worried about the economic outlook and corporate profits sent money pouring out of the safety of equities and into treasuries. Separately, the failure of talks between OPEC and Russia's energy minister intensified fears in investment markets and Dow futures fell above their 2019 low of 24270, with a tentative correction of 73.6% to 23,745 support. By comments from the U.S. President today, the stock market is expected to climb above 25,000 after recovering 24,270.

 

BTCUSD:

8445/ 8550 resistance

7850 / 7655 support 

Investors are worried about the spread of a new pandemic, affecting the economy. The stock fell sharply, Cryptocurrencies investors drawback fund, the bitcoin price fell sharply. Hopefully, the stock market going stable, then the cryptocurrencies demand increased, then the bitcoin price would rebound.