Unemployment in January remained at 3.4% with a low 6.8K jobs added. The labour force participation rate stood at 68.6% with manufacturing wages up 10.1% y/y in December.

With a moderate domestic growth outlook at 4.5%, there could be some upward pressure on unemployment in 2019. Room for unemployment to reach 3.5% in 2019 from 3.3% in 2018 remains high.

• In January, the unemployment rate remained at 3.4% for the fourth consecutive month while the hiring pace slowed down, adding 6.8K jobs compared with 44.7K in December 2018. Meanwhile, the labour force participation rate (LFPR) improved to 68.6% in January from 68.5% in December.

• Looking at the informal sector, it rose 0.5% y/y in January compared with 0.4% in December. We noticed the trend of growth in this segment has been gaining since July 2018.

• On wages, using manufacturing as the proxy, it grew by 10.1% y/y in December versus 9.0% y/y in November. Meanwhile, labour productivity in this sector improved slightly to 2.5% y/y in 4Q2018 from 2.2% y/y in 3Q2018.

• With a moderate domestic growth outlook at 4.5%, there could be some upward pressure on unemployment in 2019. Room for unemployment to reach 3.5% in 2019 from 3.3% in 2018 remains high.

Source: AmInvest Research - 12 Mar 2019