• Exports fell for the fourth consecutive month due to poor performance across the board. In November, exports slid by 5.5% y/y from -6.7% y/y in October. Poor export performance was due to continued decline in the electrical and electronic (E&E) segment which slipped by 11.6% y/y from -3.2% y/y in October, pulled down by integrated circuits products which dropped by 17.6% y/y (Oct: +0.4% y/y). Also, export revenue from the commodity-related sectors like liquefied natural gas (LNG) shrank by 35.9% y/y (October: -17.1% y/y) while petroleum products declined 17.2% y/y (October: -28.4% y/y).

• At the same time, imports dropped by 3.6% y/y in November from -8.7% y/y in October. The poor showing was due to capital imports which fell by 4.3% y/y in November from October’s -11.5% y/y. Re-exports dropped by 8.4% y/y in November compared to -10.2% y/y in October. However, the downside was contained by a 1.8%y/y gain from intermediate imports (-5.1% y/y in October) and also consumption imports which were up 1.9% y/y (-5.0% y/y)

• Meanwhile, our exports to the US and China remained strong. They grew by 6.5% y/y and 4.1% y/y respectively in November compared to 2.7% y/y and -11.0% y/y respectively in October. This could partly be due to front-loading following trade uncertainties between these two countries. Excluding our exports to these two countries, our exports on the whole fell by 8.6% y/y in November (-6.9% y/y in October).

• Year to date, both exports and imports averaged at -2.1% y/y and -3.8% y/y respectively, almost close to our full-year projection of -2.2% for exports and -3.9% for imports. On that note, we continue to maintain 2019’s full-year GDP growth which is poised to hover between 4.5% and 4.7%.

Source: AmInvest Research - 6 Jan 2020