• Bloomberg reported that Brazil’s winter corn planting is off to one of its earliest starts on record, reducing some concerns about the ability of farmers to sow a sizeable crop this season. Hot and dry conditions in the past few weeks have sped up the maturing of soybeans in parts of Mato Grosso, allowing some producers to harvest the oilseed sooner than expected and replace it with corn or cotton. This was a surprising turn as a much-delayed soy planting had fuelled expectations that many farmers would run out of time to cultivate corn.

• S&P Global Platts quoted sources as saying that US soybean exports in 1Q2024 are expected to get a boost from Brazil’s planting delay in 2023/2024F. Typically, US soybean exports start peaking in October-December and remains robust at least until mid-February. By lateFebruary, as the Brazilian soybean harvest gains traction, cheaper oilseed shipments will begin to dominate global markets, replacing US. However, there are years when Brazil suffers harvest delays due to weather extremes such as drought or deluge. This is when US soybean exports will step in to fulfil the supply gap and its sales extend well into March/April.

• Bisnis Indonesia quoted a government official as saying that the country will allow refineries to import 3.5mil tonnes of raw sugar in 2024F. This is lower than the quota of 3.6mil to 3.7mil tonnes allowed in 2023. The import allocation is calculated based on demand and the industry’s stockpiles.

• Bloomberg reported that state-owned sugar refiners in India will pay more for procuring ethanol for blending with gasoline. To improve ethanol availability, government-controlled oil marketing companies will increase the price by 6.87 rupees (8 US$ cents) a litre for ethanol made from C-heavy molasses, a by-product of sugar production.

• Reuters reported that China has issued licences to 26 domestic seed companies to produce, distribute and sell genetically modified corn and soybean seeds in certain provinces, paving the way for commercial planting of GMO grains. The companies include Beijing Dabeinong Technology and China National Seed, now owned by Syngenta Group. Commercial planting of GMO varieties will boost yields and could lower future purchases from the US and Brazil. Sources said that Chinese corn breeders are preparing for the planting of 670,000 hectares of GMO corn in 8 provinces in 2024F, more than double the amount planted in 2023.

Source: AmInvest Research - 8 Jan 2024