The journey of finding golden eggs
【Air Asia】-真的便宜吗？-创二代
【Air Asia】- 真的便宜吗？
今天坐了十四个钟头的飞机，而且因为时差的关系，在欧洲半夜四点钟就跳起来了。。。无奈。既然坐了飞机就想写一写我们Bursa的航空股- Air Asia Berhad. 凡事有任何马来西亚富豪榜上的股，我都会特别注意，因为他们总是有源源不绝的野心和动力去发展公司，比如说今天分享的亚航还有一些我跟我客户提到的种植股SOP。这支股票我不会放进我的介绍股票当中，先说明以示公平。
刚刚也说了，Air Asia 引起笔者的注意主要是盈利不停的上涨，而到底有没有undervalued呢？经过笔者的计算，盈利保持的话，7年半的时间就能100%，那为什么PE是三年多，我怎么能算到7年，主要是我们不能忽略的高债务。非常惊人10.5B的债务，会出问题吗？我认为是不会，因为它是收现金的，偿还债务不是问题，但是我们绝对不要忽略债务，只是说不会有问题。而且现代做生意的方式是最好完全用债务经营，不用放本钱做生意，厉害吗？
而许多著名投资家包括巴菲特都不建议买航空股，原因如下，第一飞机很贵，也就是说capital intensive, 赚的钱很多要放回生意当中来扩张。第二油价是有周期的，盈利很多时候是跟着油价摆动，所以不要在油价低的时候太幸奋。第三也就是竞争者，要知道许多航空都是政府的企业，也就是说要它们倒闭有一定的难度。比如马航。
所以简单来说，我们做air asia 这门生意，是一门成本很高，要看油价摆动，还有就是竞争者不容易死的行业。
但是亚航很庆幸有Tan Sri Tony 和 Kamarudin 这些名牌管理人，不停地发展来摆脱油价的周期性，为股东创造价值。如果你很能忍，不去在意油价对亚航盈利表现带来的短期波动，在公司不停发展下，还是能获利的。我说的长期是五年以上，投资不能短期，很难赚钱。
笔者过后8天可能会比较少发表文章，因为去旅游了。过后回来再和大家分享BURSA各式各样的公司和新闻。
笔者有在提供一项服务，就是把我对BURSA的公司的估值计算了，并从最便宜的方式往上排，过去我都是自己使用，目前我会在合适的价格下分享给有兴趣的读者。所介绍的公司的股价表现也有在我的Page中。如果没有兴趣，就直接ignore,不要把在股市亏钱的怒气发泄在无辜的笔者身上。有兴趣者可以去我的page看一看。谢谢！https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=544478819089405&id=519383711598916&substory_index=0
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Be the first to like this. Showing 6 of 6 comments
Cruger, i knew he bought airlines, but he said it before that he is going into capital intensive business because he already owned the best business, its better to go into other average business than holding cash.
2016-12-02 13:27
@GoldenEggs, Warren Buffett bought America Airlines due to following reasons: -
1. Monopoly business. The top 4 America Airlines owned by the same shareholders.
2. Mature phase. The capital intensive investment is over for America Airlines. Now they enter a fruitful phase.
3. Crude oil price. No one will take advantage on it, as all planes are drinking oil, not water.
4. Increase of income. Definately more people are prefer to travel now, compare to earlier century.
5. Youngest mentality. Traveling and enjoy life is their lifestyle now.
2016-12-02 14:43
shale oil alone will kill oil price. the writing has been on the wall for awhile now.
2016-12-02 14:55
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