【Heveaboard】盈利下降,股价不降反升?
前几天出炉的HEVEA业绩,盈利小幅下调。但是股价反而来了个上涨至1.55。我认为主要有两点支撑着股价。第一就是美金上涨,所以过后的季度会有盈利上涨,但是这不是绝对的,很多因素影响盈利。第二呢,就是HEVEA的valuation. 也就是我常常说的便宜,买便宜的股票,市场对其的expectation不高,反而如果买入高估值的股票,只要盈利下滑,股价就会有很大的反应。
看看UEM,贵为蓝筹股,市场对他的期望是很高的,如果再不回到以前的盈利,现在的估值还是非常的高!
另一个例子,是GADANG, 在季度报告还没公布前,我的估算是GADANG必须取得35%的成长才能给股东带回20%的回报,这是一个相当高的水平,加上ORDERBOOK没有新的变动,要达成这个目标实在是一个问号。所以当时笔者在股价回调时,还是决定不卖进GADANG因为我的目标是二十%,四年一倍。在公布了盈利下降20%时,从3.25跌到2.7的水平。
Mr.Koon 所建议的股票都有大量的炒户在跟随,导致股价很Volatile,对任何好事坏事都有很大的反应。要知道官前辈是在RM1左右的价格买入的,当时我也有注意到GADANG是在三年翻一倍的价格,所以写了一篇错过GADANG的痛的分享。而股价之后上涨至一个九年才能翻一倍的水平,要配合高成长才能缩短。
很多海外著名投资家,很喜欢说,我们必须先看下跌的可能性,也就是安全性,因为下跌照顾好了,剩下的就是往上的可能而已。顺带分享一下,有的一位subscriber 的经历,他说他在股市10年,没能赚到钱,投资了BAT和Axiata这两支股票,我就以我的看法说,这两支很难赚到钱的原因是,第一这是蓝筹股,股价很贵,所以你是以很贵的价钱买入,上涨空间已经有限。第二,这两家是很大的公司,盈利很难有大幅的成长,所以回酬有限。第三,就是大多数投资者所忽略的安全性,追盈利成长谁都会,但是计算便宜不便宜就是大多数人无法做到的了。追高会出现两种可能,就是赚很大,亏也很大,所以还是不能赚钱。而我坚持投资便宜的公司的好处,不是全部包赚,也是有亏的,但是盈利好的上升空间大,而下跌的幅度较小。
分享不是为了炫耀,只是不忍大家的血汗钱被外国投资家赚走。我有注意到一家EVLI FUND的外国公司,这家有长期15%左右回报的基金买入了很多便宜的公司(包括DUFU),所以散户的钱多数是落入了基金的手里了。
笔者有在提供一项服务,就是把我对BURSA的公司的估值计算了,并从最便宜的方式往上排,过去我都是自己使用,目前我会在合适的价格下分享给有兴趣的读者。如果没有兴趣,就直接ignore,不要把在股市亏钱的怒气发泄在无辜的笔者身上。有兴趣者可以去我的page看一看。谢谢!
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I used a lot of TA on buy/sell after my fundamental study. I wont give an exact price because I know it is almost impossible to predict on that.
But, if based on trend, it is much easier. For Hevea, I would say, very likely, it will be fluctuating or sideway for sometime (1-3 months).
For me, I see distribution is already ongoing. Let us continue monitor and see for 3 months.
2016-11-27 13:02
Andyhard, FA and TA both are giving you pass records, it wont reflect the future of the company. You can have another 3 month or more to monitor, but the market would not give you such a grace period. But it is a good case study and opportunity for you to learn.
2016-11-27 21:08
Hi zexon,
Thanks for your comment. Normally I dont talk too much on this but let us put this as sharing and learning from each other.
For FA, if we purely based on numeric of past record, then we are studying the history. But, if we based on numeric and analyse it further qualitatively, then it is not about past it is about future.
For TA, it is a little bit complicated subject. Too many people argue is TA works? I do have same doubt before. But, I have one important concept that makes me believe TA will work which is if there is no market manipulation, stock price wont move even though how good the stock is because stock movement is by human and fundamentalist will not buy stock in such a way to push the stock up.
I have used these simple concepts that helped me do quite well in this few years.
Anyhow, let us cut the story short. Let us continue to monitor this stock and revisit each month and see how it works. I like to do this case study as well and learn from all of you.
2016-11-27 22:47
cwp333
时间能证明你的说辞 股价不跌反升是因为主力跑不掉 好戏在后头 :)
2016-11-27 12:37