沃伦·巴菲特
2013年巴菲特致股东的信-内在价值篇
最近在研究股神巴菲特的公司年报和股神给股东的信。意外的发现他2013年在给股东的信里第6页，讲了营业的内在价值。
Intrinsic Business Value
As much as Charlie and I talk about intrinsic business value, we cannot tell you precisely what that number
is for Berkshire shares (or, for that matter, any other stock). In our 2010 annual report, however, we laid out the three elements – one of which was qualitative – that we believe are the keys to a sensible estimate of Berkshire’s intrinsic value. That discussion is reproduced in full on pages 104-105.
Here is an update of the two quantitative factors: In 2012 our per-share investments increased 15.7% to
$113,786, and our per-share pre-tax earnings from businesses other than insurance and investments also increased 15.7% to $8,085.
Since 1970, our per-share investments have increased at a rate of 19.4% compounded annually, and our
per-share earnings figure has grown at a 20.8% clip. It is no coincidence that the price of Berkshire stock over the 42-year period has increased at a rate very similar to that of our two measures of value. Charlie and I like to see gains in both areas, but our strong emphasis will always be on building operating earnings.
翻译中文
虽然查理和我谈企业内在价值谈得这么多，我们却不能精确告诉你伯克希尔每股内在价值是多少(对任何其他股票也是如此)。但是，
在我们2010年报中，我们列出了三个基本要素，其中一个是定性的，我们相信这些是明智估计伯克希尔内在价值的关键。这方面的讨论我们已复制在完整股东报告的104-105页。
以下是对剩下的两个定量指标的更新：2012年我们的每股投资增加15.7%，至11万3786美元，我们来自保险和投资之外业务的每股税前利润也增长15.7%，至8085美元。
1970年以来，我们每股投资的复合年增长率为19.4%，我们每股利润的这一增长率为20.8%。在这42年里，伯克希尔股价的增长率与我们这两个价值指标的增速很接近，这绝对不是一个巧合。查理和我乐于看到这两个指标的增长，但我们最为强调的始终是持续增加运营盈利。
从以上的这些指标真的很好。当初我就好奇就拿了股神的年报来算算。果然。。。难怪当初冷眼说过股价的提升90%是因为盈利的变化而影响。
以下是真实数据，所有的数据来自Berkshire Hathaway INC 的2012年年报：
在1970 年 股价是每股 66usd ， 而EPS是2.87 ，（2012年报第104页）
在2010年 股价是每股94730usd，而EPS是5926.04，（2012年报第104页）
在这40年里股价每股年复利为19.93% ，而EPS年复利为21.02% 。从这数据说明股价在2010年是低于内在价值。
在看看2013 年的3月的股价每股155978USD， 而每股盈利8977usd（2012年报第26页）
为何我用2013 年3月为标准，因为年报是在2013年3月才公布。
注意：在42年来，股价年复利20.32%， 而每股盈利也年复利21.12%。 从这数据说明2010年股价的确是被低估了，在2012年年报出炉后股价就慢慢升回接近每股盈利也年复利21.12%。
以目前股价巴菲特所以觉得公司股价还是低于内在价值。因为股价年复利低于盈利的年复利。
但是如果股价年复利高于盈利的年复利，就是股价目前被高估。巴菲特常说如果用0.8usd 买入价值1usd股票是多么的好。 所以说在2010年美国有钱人买入巴菲特的股票收2年已经得到年复利回报28.32%了。
http://kkchoo.blogspot.com/2013/03/2013.html
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