The economy added 103K jobs in March, with the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Labour force participation rate eased to 62.9%. Meanwhile, wages (average hourly earnings) grew 2.7% y/y. In our view, the overall labour data remains in the positive trajectory, supporting the favourable economic growth. Despite the recent trade uncertainties, we continue to hold our view of a total three (3) rate hikes by the US Fed. After the January rate hike by 25bps, we are pricing a 75% and 55% chance for a hike in June and either September or November, each by 25bps. For a fourth hike in December, our probability at the moment is a low 25% chance, much depends on inflation and wages.

• In March, the economy added 103K jobs from an upward revision of 326K jobs in February. It fell below expectations of 193K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, same level as in February.

• Meanwhile, the labour force participation rate fell to 62.9% in March from 63.0% in February.

• Wages continued to improve. In March, the wages (average hourly earnings) grew stronger by 2.7%y/y from 2.6% in February.

• In our view, the overall labour data remains in the positive trajectory, supporting the favourable economic growth. Despite the recent trade uncertainties, we continue to hold our view of a total three (3) rate hikes by the US Fed. After the January rate hike by 25bps, we are pricing a 75% and 55% chance for a hike in June and either September or November, each by 25bps. For a fourth hike in December, our probability at the moment is a low 25% chance, much depends on inflation and wages.

Source: AmInvest Research - 9 Apr 2018