atzer投资散记
【转载】五穷六绝七翻身
五穷六绝七翻身：投资者普遍认为股市在每逢5月的时候都会开始跌市，到了6月更会大跌，但到了7月，股市却会起死回生。
但是真正是否如此呢？
（S&P 500 & HIS 数据来自“我要做股神”）
S&P 500 49年来，五月跌六月跌的次数只有9次，命中率只有18.37%，就是说大约两成机会五月跌六月跌。如果五月跌六月跌，七月继续跌的机会是66.66%，而不是买入时机。
HIS 香港恒生指数 49年来，50%五月跌50%六月跌算起来命中率只有24.49%。而不是一般说的一定跌。不过七翻身的机会大约是六成，就是10次6次是上升的。总结：每年只有14.3%的机率发生五穷六绝七翻身。
KLSE 23年来，52%五月跌39%六月跌算起来命中率只有20%左右，也就是说五月跌六月跌的机率只有两层。如果五月跌六月跌七月翻身的机率只有40%。总结：五穷六绝七翻身发生的机率只有8%。
当然因为KLSE只覆盖30只蓝筹股，所以这数据对于其他中小型股票肯定有偏差。不过整体来说，马股都是看基本面，如果大市和基本面没变化，最多也是调整然后继续上涨。
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atzer投资散记 http://atzerinvest.blogspot.my/
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