Suresh Ramanathan, CIMB
19-Sep-13 12:38
Suresh Ramanathan, Head of Regional Rates and Forex at CIMB talks about:
- US Fed non-taper event
- implications for USD - whether forecast of 5.5% gain for dollar over the next ten months
- when tapering could begin
- what it means for Emerging Market currencies
- India headed towards a BOP crisis
- risk of contagion from India and Indonesia’s currencies
- continued underperformance for the ringgit against structurally strong economies
- outlook for aussie dollar
- recommendations
kiasutrader1
India is already doing something with the new Central Bank Governor raising rates. See : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/india-unexpectedly-raises-rate-as-cash-curbs-eased-on-rupee-gain.html. This may help the Indian economy in the near term.
Malaysia is still in doldrums as there is a lack of immediate measures that can be effectively taken to overcome the deficits.
The coming declaration of total Government debt to include Government Guarantees on top of the Government Bonds to provide a better picture of overall indebtedness will show that the amount of debt and potential debt (guarantees) will be more than 55% of GDP and that is where the danger lies.
Capital moves quickly these days because of perception and Governments in emerging Markets react rather than anticipate which is why the moves can be drastic and knee jerk reactions are the order of the day.
2013-09-20 19:51