• Export tumbles in August; pull down by agriculture and manufacturing sector
• Exports tumbled by -0.3% yoy whilst imports rose by 11.2%
• Trade surplus narrowed to RM1.6bn; the lowest figure since October 2014
• Slump in export was triggered by agriculture and manufacturing sector
• Global trade activities slowed in August
• Malaysia could benefit from trade diversion

Malaysia’s export tumbled by -0.3% yoy in August but the value remained above RM80bn mark totalling RM81.8bn after a significant 9.4% increase registered in the previous month. It was the first drop in exports since February (-2.3%). This was attributed to higher base effects and lower export volumes across top trading partners, especially G3. Overall exports were dragged down by weaker shipments of agriculture products and moderation in manufacturing sector. In contrast, imports recorded a new high of RM80.2bn, increasing by 11.2% yoy from 10.3% in a month earlier. Import growth continued to outperformed export for third consecutive month. As a result, the trade surplus narrowed to RM1.6bn in August and marked the lowest figure since October 2014 (Oct’14: RM1.1bn).

On monthly basis, exports fell by -5.0% in August after rising 9.6% in the last month. Meanwhile, import eased to 3.0% in August following 7.2% increase in the prior month. On seasonally adjusted terms, exports dropped 11.0% (Jul: 11.8%) whilst imports grew by 4.0% (Jul: 3.8%) respectively.

Total trade in August 2018 rose by 5.1% yoy to RM162.0bn as compared to RM154.1bn in the corresponding period of last year. For the period of Jan-Aug 2018, total trade amounted to RM1.23tn, grew by 6.0% yoy. Exports increased by 6.3% to RM650.6bn while rose by 5.6% to RM580.1bn. Trade surplus up by 11.9% to RM70.5bn compared to the corresponding period of 2017.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 8 Oct 2018