对话百度李彦宏：AI价格战开打、大模型闭源、超级应用以及中国市场机会｜Full interview with Robin Li, Baidu's CEO - 硅谷101

Tan KW

Publish date: Thu, 11 Jul 2024, 02:57 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESXtVv4L5aI

2024年世界人工智能WAIC大会期间，我们飞到了上海，与第一财经总编辑杨宇东老师一起专访了百度董事长兼CEO李彦宏（Robin），就目前市场非常关心的人工智能议题进行了很精彩的讨论。非常有意思的发现，这轮AI发展中，中国市场的打法和硅谷非常不一样。

这是今年Robin接受的首次采访，就中国市场的大模型AI价格战、AI超级应用、开/闭源模型路线、AI agent、中国企业级2B机会做出了他的解读。他认为，在价格战开打之际，开源其实是一种智商税，AI时代的超级应用与互联网时代截然不同、不再是卷日活10亿的模式，而AI智能体则代表未来。

AI大模型在中国市场如此早就掀起价格战的本质是什么？大模型如何为B端市场带来新的增长？AGI什么时候到来？Scaling Law是正确路线吗？希望这期采访给大家在中国市场AI的商业落地与科技巨头布局上带来一些新的思考和角度。

During the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC), we flew to Shanghai to interview Robin Li, founder, chairman and CEO of Baidu.

We had an in-depth discussion on AI topics that are currently of great concern to the market. What I find very interesting is that the approach to generative AI in the Chinese market is completely different from that overseas.

In Silicon Valley, while big players are still competing on capabilities of multimodal LLMs, startups emphasizing infrastructure, and the market waiting for GPT-5 to validate the Scaling Law. In the Chinese market, however,

the "battle of the models" has already escalated to a price war stage, much earlier than many people expected.

Robin Li believes that the next phase in the China market will be the competition in AI applications. In the interview,

Robin Li shared his views on the price war of LLMs in the China market, the opportunities for AI in enterprise-level 2B services, the choice between open-source and closed-source approaches, AI super apps, AI agents, and his thoughts on AGI and the Scaling Law.

你会看到：

00:00 - 02:50 李彦宏2024年首次采访

02:55 - 06:39 不可避免的中国AI价格战：打多久都OK

06:40 - 08:30 赢者通吃？四层技术栈未来赢家版图

08:33 - 16:04 AI的企业级需求比Saas时期大得多

16:05 - 20:52 企业AI adoption：大模型的经济账

20:53 - 24:56 为何坚持闭源：开源是智商税？

24:57 - 27:35 闭源大模型+公有云，为何对企业更友好？

27:36 - 34:32 AI时代超级应用，不再卷用户日活DAU10亿

34:33 - 40:01 Super app的“超级”定义，和移动互联网时期有何不同？

40:02 - 48:52 李彦宏如何定义AI Agent？为什么AI Agent是未来趋势？

48:53 - 52:45 AGI的实现还需要很多年

52:46 - 55:58 Scaling law短时期内不会被颠覆、模型迭代放缓不是坏事

55:59 - 57:38 中小模型和模型蒸馏

57:39 - 59:50 2.8万亿美元的大模型成本社会经济帐

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