In 2015 Google gave itself a mission: connect the "next billion" people to the internet. That plan more-than-succeeded, but also left three billion people offline - a situation that other orgs are trying to address.

Google's plan focused on ensuring its own apps and services could run on modest smartphones, even if they were offline. The search monopolist worked with carriers and hardware manufacturers to create feature phones that could run apps, or affordable almost-smart phones such as the Jio Phones that sold for as little as $25. Facebook invested billions in Jio as part of Zuck's efforts to find new users in the developing world. The Social Network also created a package called "Free Basics" that made its products free to use on some phones.

Both tech giants promised their efforts would help to bridge the digital divide - but by doing so they also created new users and fed more potentially-revenue-producing data into the maw of their advertising engines.

Such a happy coincidence.

Google stopped update its Next Billion blog in 2022, and reported it gained three billion users. It has since reabsorbed the Next Billion team into other projects.

Billions left behind

But there are plenty of people left offline. Last month mobile industry trade body the GSMA last month announced a plan to help three billion of them to connect.

The GSMA's plan aims to provide affordable handsets, and is backed by a coalition of industry players and organizations - including mobile operators and device makers. The World Bank Group, the UN's International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the EDISON alliance - the World Economics Forum's digital inclusion effort - are all on board.

Their efforts will target what the GSMA calls the "usage gap" - people who live in areas with mobile broadband coverage but aren't online. The usage gap affects 38 percent of the global population, or roughly three billion people. Most are located in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where populations are predominantly mobile-first internet users.

For comparison, only five percent of the global population lacks internet coverage.

The GSMA identified several factors that contribute to the usage gap - among them a lack of digital literacy, lack of relevant content, and online safety concerns - but cited handset affordability as the "most significant" barrier.

Obtaining low-cost handsets is one element of the org's plan, and The Register understands the GSMA is yet to finalize that stage. Another element is finding ways to offer consumer credit - a non-trivial matter, as many targeted by this scheme have no credit history, no bank account, and no means to obtain one.

They may also not be able to make regular payments for data allowances, understand the device's potential, or even have the means to keep it charged.

Which raises an important question: who benefits from this scheme? The telecoms industry? Those who stand to profit from getting more users online? Or the people who will come online?

Show me the money

"One of the things experts identified is that for some people the device is not the issue - it's the value they get from the connectivity," Michuki Mwangi, regional development manager at the Internet Society (ISOC), told The Register.

Mwangi is based in Kenya - one of the regions that GSMA is targeting.

He said that some don't see a reason why they should use the internet - but the moment they can see a social or economic benefit, those objections vanish. For instance, a farmer who learns to buy tools online can understand the internet will help them generate income and therefore is willing to make the investment to get and stay online.

"Connectivity is a choice," concluded Mwangi.

Gartner vice president of research Bettina Tratz-Ryan explained to The Reg that being online doesn't necessarily mean chronically - or even moderately - online. Someone who only accesses the internet once a week for ten minutes could access online banking, or order from a pharmacy.

"The lowest denominator might be to call a physician - maybe that's the important piece for a mom with twins. But to drive an economic stress out of it, it needs a sustainable outcome," explained Tratz-Ryan, who stressed the need for ongoing support for those who cross the usage gap.

Devices drive other needs

Support could mean having a place to charge a device.

"If you empower three billion people with generators, we will have a climate crisis. So with that comes electrification of the communities. They don't want diesel. They want cutting edge - they want the green climate friendly machines developed countries are getting," stated the Gartner VP.

Teaching literacy skills to help users text or read websites may also be needed.

The world has changed

Tratz-Ryan pointed out that back in 2015 the internet "had a fraction of the capabilities of the internet we have today."

"The smartphone is one thing for digital transactions - to open bank accounts and the like - but the variety of content in the multimedia domain has changed the way users that have the access regard the value of it," she explained.

"In some countries, especially the less developed, they don't have government structure to handle adverse effects like cyber bullying and fraud. Then putting AI capabilities on top of it - those things that can be a blessing can also be a threat," the VP added.

To manage these new risks, organizations that aim to bridge the usage gap need to recognize the importance of engaging with governments and communities as stakeholders.

Regulators will be needed for everything from managing participating service providers to content and infrastructure. The challenge, according to Tratz-Ryan, is that regulation is only effective when it strikes a balance between sociological needs and technological advancements.

And as needs vary, there is danger in treating each community the same.

For example, the Indonesian populace has an appetite to be online, whereas in Malaysia some are distrustful. By comparison, in Nigeria, the population comes ready to accept technologies like blockchain, thanks to the popularity of cryptocurrency in the nation.

Community-centered approach

The ISOC's Michuki described the way the Society promotes internet growth as "community-centered." "We give them the knowledge, training, and initial funding, and show them how to run it," he explained.

In many cases, the result is a locally owned not-for-profit facilitating internet access. Any surplus income generated by users paying for usage can go toward improving services.

Michuki drew parallels between the introduction of internet services and his own community's recent installation of a new well.

That project required planning and collaborating with his neighbors on designs, testing, and planning for future maintenance. He now has water in his home, and his household and neighbors can choose to use the well for a range of activities - from bathing to irrigating their small farms.

Now that it's there, it's hard to imagine life without the well. The internet is much the same. Connectivity is only a choice until it's not.

Michuki cited relatives who pay for internet in Kenya, even though they are retired and money is tight - because it's where they go to meet their social and spiritual needs.

"The more society adopts digital, the more the need is there - but adoption needs to be easy and of value," he concluded. ®

https://www.theregister.com//2024/09/03/three_billion_people_offline/