gloveharicut
MACQUARIE Research downgrade TOPGLOV to RM5.40. Time to take off the gloves? Smoke or Fire?
gloveharicut
Publish date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020, 08:59 AM
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I invite you to read my blog and make a smart GLOVE decision.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gloveharicut/blidx.jsp
I invite your to read following post after read MACQUARIE report to make a smart GLOVE decision.
CIMB Research maintain BUY on TOPGLOV. Aiming for top results. Target price = RM9.20
TOP GLOVE buyback 1.392million shares at RM7.11 - RM7.21
Miti: Rubber GLOVE exports up 50% in first seven months
I am reproducing the MACQUARIE Research report to my blog.
This post don't have any value added content.
Compile here for my own record.
Please skip if you don't like it.
https://www.docdroid.net/c8gAIDe/topg-mq-pdf
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 43 of 43 comments
a good i3 member send me the full macquarie report.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gloveharicut/2020-09-10-story-h1513430499-MACQUARIE_Research_downgrade_TOPGLOV_to_RM5_40_Can_PM_me_the_full_repor.jsp
2020-09-10 09:14
I invite your to read following post after read MACQUARIE report to make a smart GLOVE decision.
CIMB Research maintain BUY on TOPGLOV. Aiming for top results. Target price = RM9.20
TOP GLOVE buyback 1.392million shares at RM7.11 - RM7.21
Miti: Rubber GLOVE exports up 50% in first seven months
2020-09-10 09:17
Bull valuation RM20.40, bear valuation RM5.4. Next week MQ will switch to Bull again.
2020-09-10 09:45
Hmm... this prediction is for FY2022, when "demand-supply issue is resolved". Good to know that Macquarie thinks TG will hold the price of RM5.40 (base case) even after the pandemic (what else could equalize the glove demand issue so quickly).
Anyway, if anybody wants to sell their shares at RM5.4, i am willing to buy. Good dividend for the rest of FY2020 and FY2021. Their bull case scenario see the share price rise to RM20.40 and a bear case sees it fall to RM2.80
2020-09-10 09:47
Just a note.... Isn't Macquarie a big issuer of call warrants ? Give a base valuation of RM5.40 but with a bull case scenario of RM 20.40 to protect themselves during future upsurge?
2020-09-10 10:18
so macquarie release ulti to lower down the price for all big fish to stock up and depleted MP edi (in terms of the title that suggesting they no more playing glove stocks in public and will pretend they will switch their view to other stocks) now it depends on other investment banks to carry it upwards?
2020-09-10 11:15
When next qr out for most glove counters are trading at pe 20-30, if price continue to fall maybe even lower pe. The game is not completely over. For those not yet enter, if fall lower maybe can earn big. Another big rally is likely, 2 years is a long time. Trade cautiously.
2020-09-10 11:30
Why talk about 2022??,,looking at Q1Q2 2021 explosive earnings to underpin another run up...
2020-09-10 11:59
Macquarie report said Topglove 2021 profit will be around 10b and the PER will be 4.2 for FY21 with TP 5.4 in 3rd page. What are they smoking ? :)
2020-09-10 13:14
The contrary will happen. It is too early to tell this as the demand is still there and they have their order books full for the next quarters. This could happen sometime late next year but even that, we have to wait and see.
2020-09-10 14:16
BURSA AND SECURITIES COMMISSION ARE VERY QUIET NOW, NO ANY STATEMENTS, REAL CROOKS
2020-09-10 14:25
Typical IB style, give low TP for price to drop, for them to collect lower.
Then release a higher TP when result is out.
2020-09-10 14:47
Karma awaits the "so-called" analyst from Macquarie Bank. What nonsense to speculate about 2022 when we are still treading water now! More over, 180 degree reversal from just two weeks ago when it stated TP was RM30.40.
2020-09-10 15:10
Nonsensical analysis from Macquarie, making too much assumptions on future prices.
2020-09-10 15:22
That’s how the crook evil IBs con cheat retail investors, twist and spin Buy and Sell calls to benefit their big clients only
Boycott all MACQUARIE call warrants!!!
Ban all Call Warrants!!!
How could useless Bursa and SC let evil IBs issue call warrants on other companies to encourage gambling??
KARMA WILL HIT THOSE EVIL ONES VERY HARD
2020-09-10 17:23
BURSA DID MENTION IN EDGE MEDIA, THEY WILL BE CURBING OVER SPECULATION.. I THINK MANY ARE INVOLVE, NONE ARE GIVING OUT ANY STATEMENTS.. EXAMPLE BURSA AND SECURITIES COMMISSION, BANKERS AND MUCH MORE ARE INVOLVE.. THEY ARE DOING FAKE THROWS WITH LOW VOLUME, PURPOSELY DONE TO PULL GLOVES DOWN. SELECTED IB S ARE ALSO INVOLVE LIKE MACQUARIE.. LOOK AT SECURITIES COMMISSION SO QUIET, NOT TAKING OUT ANY STATEMENTS.. BURSA MAIN PLAYER IN THIS
2020-09-10 17:40
Posted by johnny cash > Sep 10, 2020 5:40 PM | Report Abuse
BURSA DID MENTION IN EDGE MEDIA, THEY WILL BE CURBING OVER SPECULATION.. I THINK MANY ARE INVOLVE, NONE ARE GIVING OUT ANY STATEMENTS.. EXAMPLE BURSA AND SECURITIES COMMISSION, BANKERS AND MUCH MORE ARE INVOLVE.. THEY ARE DOING FAKE THROWS WITH LOW VOLUME, PURPOSELY DONE TO PULL GLOVES DOWN. SELECTED IB S ARE ALSO INVOLVE LIKE MACQUARIE.. LOOK AT SECURITIES COMMISSION SO QUIET, NOT TAKING OUT ANY STATEMENTS.. BURSA MAIN PLAYER IN THIS
But 'the many are involve" also includes EPF. EPF is known for drastic sell downs n buying them back again. So how ???
2020-09-10 19:28
Remember Philip dispose Topgloves at Rm 8 to Rm 10 b4 x bonus loh...!!
If u believe Philip & he is right...it could fall as low as Rm rm 2.70 to Rm 3.40 loh...!!
Posted by simple091 > Sep 10, 2020 7:21 PM | Report Abuse
The price already between rm4 to 5 back in last year even that time their NP less than 100m, what the current price should be if follow the trend as last year?
2020-09-10 19:31
This Lim Wee Chai try to goreng share instead of seriously doing business loh...!!
Posted by GuShen > Sep 10, 2020 7:53 PM | Report Abuse
Very “good” management. Spent more than RM100mil to share buy back. Investors should query the management decision, why they spend so much money to share buy back instead of use the RM110mil to declare dividend so all shareholders will enjoy.
2020-09-10 19:57
Musang was another sohai asking u all to buy gloves at high high price last 2 wks loh...!!
Alot of sohai followers landed in holland
Posted by deMusangking > Sep 10, 2020 8:01 PM | Report Abuse
stockraider@
sell your netx and buy glove!!!
haha
2020-09-10 20:11
No lah General Raider & Sifu calvin had totally opposing views on gloves mah..!!
Posted by Mikecyc > Sep 10, 2020 8:11 PM | Report Abuse
haha conman raider is acting ke .. just see the con show with partner con artist callvvin in Netx and Insas wb with 5000 invested
2020-09-10 20:18
Rotation to usd equities since rallying after a crash a few days ago. Once risk appetite back then gloves will rally again..collect now. In the end we’re an afterthought to foreign funds who come only when risk appetite there as diversification. Macquire report is rubbish. Check the data. The average report is only 60% accurate. Statistically proven. These half baked analysts can fly kites.lol. Gloves are seen as covid friendly stocks and there’s a rotation out of tech to S&p. Just ended as tech now rallying again. Covid friendly are tech and gloves. So glove appetite should return once risk appetite for growth returns.
2020-09-10 21:32
@purebull, knew something was off. the profits they calculated to project their TP 5.40 is actually more than their projected profits for TP 30? so now the modern take for IBs to quote TP is following the "make more revenue/profit = lower TP" logic? like what the hell is going on. If they are catching those that dont read fine prints... then.. i also dont know what to say edi. tg revenue last year less than 5bn leh..profit only 430m. 2019 is a year where gloves suffered an oversupply issue, and they managed to stay at about 8% profit while still expanding and acquiring.
"The first table was by on the upgrade to TPRM30.40. The estimated revenue for 2021 and 2022 were RM12.14bn and RM7.413bn respectively. Reported profit for 2021 and 2022 were RM4.646bn and RM850m respectively.
THE DOWNGRADE REPORT projected revenue for 2021 and 2022 to RM19.058bn and RM9.023bn respectively. The expected profit for 2021 and 2022 were RM10.259bn and RM2.022bn respectively."
2020-09-11 10:05
Reason why Macquarie downgrade TG is to save their own ass
Unlike a company warrant, a structured warrant is issued by an IB in return for a premium. So the first investor buys the structured warrant directly from Macquarie, and then the warrant is subsequently traded freely on Bursa just like any other share. At the expiry date, if the mother share price is above the warrant exercise price, Macquarie will settle the difference in cash. If the mother share price is equal to or below the warrant exercise price, the warrant will expire worthless.
Now in this case, Macquarie issued this warrant C67 on 3 February 2020 (before the covid19 bull run) with an expiry of 16 Oct 2020 (next month).
With an exercise price of 1.67 and an exercise ratio of 1.333, Macquarie will have to compensate in cash to all warrant holders if the mother share price close above RM1.67. For example, if the mother share price close at RM5, Macquarie will have to compensate RM2.50 per warrant [(5-1.67) / 1.33]. If the mother share price close at RM8, the compensation is RM4.76 per warrant [(8-1.67) / 1.33]. As you can see, even though the difference in the mother share price is just 60% (8/5), they will need to compensate 90% (4.76/2.50) more. This is the leverage effect of a structured warrant.
Now the next thing that people need to know - just 2 weeks ago, Macquarie issued a report with a TP of RM30. Today they issued a new report with higher profit forecast for 2020, 2021 and 2022 on the basis that ASP is increasing faster than expected.
At the same time, he halved the TP on the basis that "ASP cannot sustain forever". What changed the analyst's forecast within this short 2 weeks? Did he suddenly talk to industry leaders worldwide to realise that ASP will not last forever? He did not know how to do his job previously and suddenly now he knows? Did he suddenly have a crystal ball?
Or did some head of department from the derivative division realised they shouldnt have issued C67 because they didn't expect the bull run sparked by Covid-19, spoke to the IB CEO, who then spoke to the head of department of the research division, who then had a "word" with the independent research analyst?
I'm not accusing anyone of anything, I'm just stating the facts and "possible scenarios". You make the judgement. This is something we need to ponder upon before taking in the headline RM5.40 downgrade report.
2020-09-11 15:31
Now is time to put on the gloves? Doing own Due Diligence & not be swayed by whatever Research house, is my strong point.
2020-09-13 16:20
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2020-09-10 09:12