As you know, I believe that there are five big forces that are shaping the events that are now happening in the world and will happen in the future. This post is about the External Conflict force, especially the great power conflict between the US and China.
Because it is obvious to me that peace is better than war and that mutual understanding and warm relations are better than misunderstandings and bad relations, I thought both the Biden-Xi meeting this week and the dinner that followed it were positive, though they weren't big steps to getting past the big changing world order conflict issues.
Before the Biden-Xi meeting last week, I shared you this post where I anticipated what the summit would be like and how I thought things would likely go from there. Most importantly, there would be a step back from the brink of military war and entering a new type of war that would better be described as a fierce competition. That is what happened, though it was a bit better than that.
The dinner was, above all, a gathering of Chinese and Americans who have known each other for many years and appreciated President Xi's speech which emphasized the practical benefits and emotional joys of peaceful coexistence. He also spoke about the benefits of the specific types of cooperation that were agreed to in the meeting with President Biden and envisioned future cooperation beyond that. (You can find the full speech
here so that you can hear it for yourself and not make the mistake of only listening to others’ descriptions of it). As is typical during such Chinese dinners, there was time in the middle of the dinner when people got up, walked around the table, and chatted warmly with each other as old friends. The main feeling, I believe, that most people who were there went away with was one of friendship.
As for what I think about the US-China relationship, what I hope for is peaceful mutual understanding and empathy that emanates from people who know each other well and passes along to others who understand the benefits of mutual understanding, especially in contrast with damaging wars and conflict. At the same time, I am a hyperrealist. I recognize that each side is a threat to the other in many ways, has terrible problems, and wants to avoid defeat by the other. It’s a fight without rules and a judge and jury to adjudicate how it goes. As a student of history who has seen this sort of situation many times before, I know that competition taken past a certain point can produce consequences that nobody wants. There are also a whole lot of shared goals and many ways to cooperate to produce what we all can agree that we want. I think President Biden’s policy to “derisk” rather than “decouple” is the right policy because disconnection would be economically devastating, while derisking is essential. I believe that the Chinese side needs the same thing. Everyone in both countries who are relatively close to what’s happening recognizes the new reality, which is that the world is adapting to the threats of economic and military warfare and the relative changes in the attractiveness of these two countries.
I know that what I’m saying will be criticized by some people, including some who would like to hurt me for what I’m saying. I also know that I was raised in a wonderful country at a wonderful time that has given me the right and obligation to speak up about important things. While I've been informed by my experiences and many conversions, I can't tell you whether my views are better than others’ views. But I do deeply believe that it is through thoughtful disagreement that we learn. Ultimately, my views, and the important topics (like US-China relations, debt, etc.) that we are exploring, aren’t as important as how we are with each other. I believe that our greatest risk is that so many people distort things and want to fight. History shows us that at such times, civility declines and people simply want to you pick a side and fight. As a result, there is a lot of self-induced conflict and suffering. At such times, not fighting and trying to see how opposing sides can co-exist, and appreciate each other, feels good. That is how the dinner felt to me. I recommend the approach, or at least moving a bit more in that direction.
