Misai's World of Investing
EPF's Last Opportunity To Get Out
abang_misai
Publish date: Wed, 09 Dec 2020, 01:49 PM
Topglove reported highest ever quarterly 1QRFY2021 of Rm2.4bil! The pertinent questions are as follows:
1. Can this QR be replicated in the 2QFY2021? If not, share price uptrending cannot be sustained. Period.
2. Can the "glove euphoria" be revived in the 2QFY2021? Don't forget, during this time round, a lot of competitors Mahsing, Inix, Salcon, not to mention those factories in China & Thailand etc have started to produce gloves. Factory expansion of big 5 also completed and start production on January 2021. Supply will flood the market, outstripping demand. Pandemic is likely to be under control then.
EPF already sees this coming and has been doing the right thing by disposing Topglove.
Today the opportunity for EPF to resume selling. There will lots of so-called so-chai who will be buying topglove thinking it is cheap. Cheap doesn't mean good because this type of earning cannot be sustained.
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 36 of 36 comments
Better mobilse your energy and resources into the-now-off-the-radar YTL. The upcoming themeplay is cement & HSR.
2020-12-09 14:14
Pasar Malam analysis
Give facts & give figures
EPF still have at least 5% in TG yea
might as well they dispose all if they know your crystal-ball fortune telling postings
This one all we know already la
2020-12-09 14:33
EPF selling because they need to accumulate cash on hands and standby for the government schemes; withdraw $10k from EPF account. You really think EPF have so much cash on hand meh?
2020-12-09 14:57
Must buy those companies that incurred huge losses only the prices will move up.
2020-12-09 15:31
aiyo comeon loh. WHAT OVER SUPPLY? please give correct pic to ppl. I HEARD OVERSUPPLY SINCE SARS TIME. Demand always far exceeding supply. Guna otak mah
2020-12-09 16:31
I also dont mind to be waterfish. ONLY SORCHAI chasing speculative stock is waterfish loh. when all ppl call for selling lah, apa LJ theme over lah, overprice lah, over supply lah. all bullshit.
I only listen to industry players, which obviously sorchai here is not. Insider knows much better than you all mah. wakaka.
2020-12-09 16:33
only ppl trading looking at price think they smart, which always proven as sorchai. What overprice i also dunno.
P/E DROP from 50-60 range BEFORE COVID to current around single digit already.
WILL GLOVES GO BANKCRUPCY AH？ Because over supply ah. look at SARS alredi you got answer. 2 years maximum a pandemic end, what happen later years?
DONT BE SHORT TERM PLAYERS LIKE AUNTIE IN PASAR LOH
2020-12-09 16:36
price from what point? 10yrs ago or 5yrs ago. Both i earning kao kao.
only short term sorchai play glove like goreng stock macam misai sorchai
2020-12-09 16:54
1. Can this QR be replicated in the 2QFY2021? If not, share price uptrending cannot be sustained. Period.
Your first question already show you are stupid.Can this QR be replicated in the 2QFY2021? Of course, is just 2.5 months away and the report will be out plus minus 3 months from now as the 1QFY2021 is out just today. The order book is full until FY2022 so why the QR results cant be replicate or even better then 2QFY2021?
I can keep on debating and give more facts but there is no point arguing with a foolish person like you
2020-12-09 18:03
"Supply will flood the market, outstripping demand."
MARGMA disagrees with you.
Between your opinion and MARGMA's, I think I'll take MARGMA's.
2020-12-09 18:24
The better question is will Malaysian be fully vaccinated by the end of 2021?
Right now, the US has stated it will not allow the sale of a Covid19 vaccine to any nation until they are fully vaccinated. AKA America First, And Pfizer will not be able to deliver substantial amounts of vaccine beyond the 100 million doses it promised the US until late June or july. US needs about 700 million doses for its 327 million citizens
So while the US maybe fully vaccinated by the end of 2021, can the same be said for Malaysia? Malaysia may not recover from Covid19 until 2022.
If we are all so forward looking, assuming the vaccines all work... we need to consider the actual production capacity of the various vaccines and their cost. Pfizer vaccine production capacity is 1.3 billion doses a year and their vaccine is USD 20 per dose (at wholesale price to governments) and each person needs two doses. Moderna production capacity is 500m doses a year and it cost is USD 10-50 per dose, 2 doses per person.
Population of europe is 741mil people and US has 327 million. Total 1068 million people, requiring 2136 million doses.
2020-12-09 19:30
If topgloves very good result cannot rally the share price, that means gloves sector will be very bearish mah...!!
Thus sell off in all the gloves shares loh....!!
Posted by stockraider > Dec 9, 2020 8:08 PM | Report Abuse X
This bcos the good news already factor in the share price mah...!!
Going forward they knew the current very good profit cannot sustained mah...!!
Thus they sell ahead loh....!!
Posted by VolatileIsMyGold > Dec 9, 2020 4:59 PM | Report Abuse
Malaysian investors are the stuppidest & the weirdest in this whole wide universe
Any company makes awesome profit, they don't chase, but they dump
Then they go grabbing companies that make gigantic losses
2020-12-09 20:13
It was the same saying e.g profit cannot sustain when tg report Q4 at 1.2b.. Turn out this Q 2.38b and yet people still saying it cannot sustain
2020-12-09 20:30
I think everyone entitles their own opinions and being a sensible trader, we shall not bash others. What's the point of arguing? You can disagree with his point of view. It depends on your position. I am a long term investor and in fact I am happy to see TG has such a good result. Current price adjustment may seem volatile but it does give us a good opportunity to accumulate more stocks. In fact, I do wish the price can further adjust to RM6 or even lower to RM5. TG current outlook is positive just a bit bumpy. I do believe fundamentally it is a very good company to invest in. Gloves demand will be a long term need. Today we have covid, may be we will have another SARS or highly contagious diseases in another year or so down the road.
My question to fellow TG shareholders, do you really believe the efficacy of these vaccines. I will post you a very simple scenario, What will happen if the 90-95% efficacy of some vaccines only has around 55-65% efficacy?
Now the real test begins. Lets see what is the number like in a bigger sample.
2020-12-09 21:52
abang misai. you are 100% betul.Nak tolong orang tapi kena hina pulak.dia orang nak kasi wang pada IB..big shark..apa lu boleh buat!!
2020-12-09 21:54
ye la yg takpaham nya
Order book dh sampai end of 2021
So apa macam ? nak question tu, pakai otaq sikit bhai
So from today till Dec 2021, Korang will say the price cannot sustain for 12 months ? Biar betiq
So dec 2020 - dec 2021 Share price drop back to rm1?
2020-12-09 22:20
Are you stupid? or you cant analyse? go and read TG briefing slides and see whats the figure looks like for Q2
2020-12-09 23:28
Top Glove just reported EPS 29.64 sen. Its previous quarter was 5.32 sen, an increase of 5.6 times. Supermax reported EPS 30.58 sen for its 1st quarter ending September. Its next quarter ending December will be announced in Mid-January. Based on Top Glove’s profit growth rate, Supermax’s profit should be another new record high. All serious investors must wait patiently for another 5 weeks.
2020-12-10 00:20
Agree with Mtrade...
Quote from Trump: What a stupid statement that is. What a stupid statement. You know what? I hear that a lot. You make a lot of stupid statements. Haha
2020-12-10 01:34
Abang kanasai! I buying in more ya kept for more years to come so u don’t worry so much I can take the loss
2020-12-10 07:15
1. Topglove Resume Operation Soon (Rubber & Glove Counters Rebound Expected!!)
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rubberglove_y2023/2020-12-10-story-h1537506467-Topglove_Resume_Operation_Soon_Rubber_Glove_Counters_Rebound_Expected.jsp
2. AT (0072) - GREAT NEWS & PROGRESS UPDATE - (Photos included)
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rubberglove_y2023/2020-12-09-story-h1537503583-AT_0072_PROGRESS_UPDATE_Photos_included.jsp
2020-12-10 09:02
first it was windfall tax
then it was vaccine
now it is overcapacity
after this is what?
if Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google (the FANG stocks) were Malaysian stocks, dah lama bungkus dah. Malaysians dont support Malaysia's THKS stocks (TopGlove, Harta, Kossan, Supermax)
2020-12-10 16:01
Glove industry in Msia is champion of the world and top 4 prices should be accorded 'fair value', not pasar malam prices.
2020-12-11 10:39
Correct, pasar prices due to EPF selling like ratailers. These mega cap stocks needs long term anchor investors to stabilize the price like a big mall have locked in long term tenants.
2020-12-11 13:22
US hit all time high covid..246.5K yesterday.. the world has reach 702K per day!!! More coming.. spore 5 cluster found.. Japan reach almost 3k per day.. Brazil 52k per day.. everyone is hitting year high.. Msia just hit 2200 last 2 days.. yesterday was 1810.. will the covid stop? Pfizer vaccine only for emergency use.. I suppose only for those above 80yrs old. Glove shall be steady having good return.
2020-12-12 12:39
Solution so call the best vaccine counter.. 2019.. they only have less than 17M revenue with loss of 1-2m per year.. even my Sdn BHd company having more revenue then Solution. The news say they will construct 28m factory for vac which completed in Mid2021. That means revenue only kick off n seen in SEP report which will be out in NOV2021. So what so great of the company? Actually I don't understand why not TG or any big 4 company also go and sign vac MOU.. im sure the game ball will be totally change.
2020-12-12 12:41
Whatever goes up must come down. Can you see stocks of other sectors are rising? Why so? It’s because investors are switching funds from glove to these rising stocks.
Question: Where do they get the money to buy non-glove stocks?
Answer: they must have sold some of their holding to generate cash. Gloves stocks are being sold to get the cash. Period
2020-12-12 13:53
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ABSOLUTELY TRUUE. only waterfish go chase
2020-12-09 13:55