Highlights

• Finishing strong. Domestic contract awards to listed contractors in 4Q15 stood at RM7.4bn (-24% YoY, +30% QoQ). Job flows for 2015 witnessed consecutive quarterly increases throughout the year, with 4Q being the strongest.

• Surge in volume. Notable contracts during the quarter include the National Sports Complex refurbishment (RM1.6bn) by MRCB and TRX infra and road works (RM755m) by WCT. While most of the other contracts were small to mid-sized ones, the high count in the absolute number of awards resulted in the strong 4Q.

• 2nd highest showing. For the full year 2015, domestic job flows totalled RM21.9bn, translating to a 22% YoY increase. This sum is the 2nd highest witnessed in the last 8 years. One contributing factor to the strong job flows in 2015 was RAPID which saw RM4.1bn worth of awards dished out (19% of overall domestic contracts).

• A record year ahead. Looking forward, we expect 2016 to be a record year for job flows, possibly breaking the previous high of RM28bn set in 2012 when the MRT1 was awarded. With the MRT2 slated to be rolled out this year, job wins should at least replicate that of 2012.

• Contracts all year round. In terms of the timeline for some of the mega projects, this should start off with the LRT3 (RM9bn) in 1Q, MRT2 (RM28bn) in 2Q, Pan Borneo Sarawak (RM16bn), DASH (RM4bn) and SUKE (RM4bn) in 3Q and potentially the revival of the Southern Double Track (RM8bn) in 4Q.

• Also strong overseas. Foreign contract awards stood at RM577m in 4Q15, surging more than 10-folds YoY and QoQ but this was mainly due to an extremely low base effect. For the full year, foreign contracts came in at RM3.1bn, increasing 51% YoY, mainly due to the sizable Lusail development contract (RM1.2bn) won by WCT in Qatar.

Risks

• A space to watch out for is the softening domestic property market, leading to slower private sector contracts as developers scale back on launches.

Rating

• OVERWEIGHT
• Our data on contract awards validates that the momentum of job wins remains strong for contractors. With domestic contract awards potentially hitting an all-time high in 2016, we advocate staying OVERWEIGHT on the sector.

Top Picks

• For the large caps, IJM (BUY, TP: RM3.86) is our top pick given its record high orderbook of RM6.7bn which implies a superior cover ratio of 7.5x.
• Amongst the small caps, we continue to advocate buying into Mitrajaya (BUY, TP: RM1.95) which boasts superior earnings growth with 3 year CAGR of 24%, underpinned by its RM1.6bn orderbook (4.3x cover ratio).
• We also highlight SCable (BUY, TP: RM2.57) as a potential play for the impending Sarawak State Elections which is touted to happen sometime in March.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 14 Jan 2016