A decent 4Q19 as sector net profit displayed positive growth (+6% QoQ mainly from lower bad loan allowances; +2% YoY due to positive Jaws). Overall, there were no surprises since all 8 banks under our coverage reported broadly in line results. Despite the growth outlook for banks is modest (2-year CAGR of 1.3%), we are consoled by undemanding valuations (sector trading near -2SD to 5-year mean P/B). Reiterate NEUTRAL on the sector and we advocate selective stock picking. Our preferred pick is CIMB (TP: RM5.50). Other BUY calls are RHB (TP: RM6.00), BIMB (TP: RM4.50), and Alliance (TP: RM3.05).

4Q19 results round-up. All 8 banks under our coverage posted largely in line results. However, Maybank and RHB surprised us with their dividend decisions; the former looked to dish out a full cash final DPS (instead of keeping its typical electable portion) while the latter raised its payout to 50% (vs our 40% expectations).

QoQ. 4Q19 sector net profit was up 6% despite a meagre 1% total income expansion, as opex fell 1% while loan loss provision declined 30% (net credit cost: -13bp). At the top, net interest margin (NIM) widened 3bp from downward deposit repricing but got offset by tepid non-interest income (NOII, flat); the falling yield climate, which led to good investment results were largely wiped out by lower forex gains and fee revenue. Generally, these were the trends seen but the likes of CIMB saw its bottom-line fell due to higher bad loan allowances (more provision required for 1-2 old Indo corporate accounts) and BIMB had to contend with escalating opex and lower takaful income.

YoY. Unlike QoQ performance, sector earnings were up 2%, thanks mainly to positive Jaws (total income grew faster vs opex by 2ppt); robust trading income was the chief contributor, leading to a 13% rise in NOII but was capped by NIM compression (-4bp). Also, the higher provision for impaired loans (which almost tripled in size) did not bode well for bottom-line; the trio of Affin, Alliance, and CIMB saw their earnings particularly hit by this development.

Other key trends. Loans growth tapered to 3.6% YoY (3Q19: +4.1%) while deposits slowed to 3.4% YoY (3Q19: +5.6%). Based on these two categories, the top 3 fastest growing banks were BIMB, CIMB, and Alliance (+4-10%). As for asset quality, gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio improved (-11bp QoQ), primarily due to reclassification out from reschedule and restructure (R&R) loans to performing status.

Outlook. NIM slippage is seen to return in 1Q20 given the recent OPR cut. However, recovery would ensue in the following 3-6 months from downward deposit repricing (lagged impact). That said, the decent NOII trend should provide a cushion as trading gains are expected to sustain into 1Q20 given the 10-year MGS yield has continued to slide. Besides, the financial reliefs extended to clients affected by Covid-19 lowers the risk of related loans turning impaired and helps to contain rising credit cost.

Forecast. Despite all the banks under our coverage posting results that were largely within expectations, we cut our profit estimates to factor in higher NIM contraction. We are now seeing 2-year aggregate earnings CAGR of 1.3% (FY19-21) for the sector vs our previous estimate of 3.6%.

Retain NEUTRAL. Although the growth outlook for banks is modest, we draw comfort from the sector’s inexpensive valuations as it trading near -2SD to its 5-year average P/B. Those that favour exposure to this sector have to be selective. Our preferred pick is CIMB (TP: RM5.50) given its above average growth and undemanding valuations vs larger peers. Other BUY ratings are RHB (TP: RM6.00), BIMB (TP: RM4.50), and Alliance (TP: RM3.05).

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 6 Mar 2020