• Secured third model for US-based crafting customer; and bidding for more projects with different customers
• Key customer pipeline remains robust. Targets 70:30 revenue mix between key customer vs. the rest in FY22 (currently c.85:15)
• We remain upbeat on ATA’s near-term outlook. Reiterate Buy with a higher target price of RM3.70

Key Customer’s Future Pipeline Could Drive Up ASP

At its post briefing call yesterday, ATA IMS (ATA) management echoed the view that the current existing work-from-home trend is expected to sustain and drive the demand for home appliances, as it sees strong order momentum for 2021. In terms of its key customer, future products in the pipeline could involve more sophisticated technology (ie, robotics, batteries) which could drive the overall blended ASP higher over the next 5 years.

Secured New Model for Its Biggest Non-key Customer

We are positive that its US-based customer has awarded ATA with a third crafting model, which is expected to commence production from June 2021 onwards (FY22). ATA is also in the midst of bidding for a few new projects for a particular smaller client, albeit with low expected volumes.

Bigger Space, More Machines to Cater to Growth

The most recent Pasir Gudang facility expansion (Fig 1) is expected to be fully utilised by early 2H CY21. Even before that, the group is already in the midst of sourcing for a new factory of 350k sf size (+15% of existing capacity), which was guided to mostly cater to the US-based customer. In anticipation of a strong order pipeline, ATA is looking to place orders for an additional 50 injection moulding machines, adding to its existing 610 machines. Total capex amount is estimated to be RM50m in FY22, similar to our existing FY21 projection.

Reiterate Buy

We raise our FY22-23E EPS forecasts by 6-7% after factoring in a higher PBT margin assumption of 4.6-4.7% (from 4.3-4.5%). This is closer to the 5% internal guidance post the consolidation of Microtronics, which is expected to be completed by mid CY21. We raise our target price to RM3.70 (from RM3.50), pegged to unchanged 26x PE multiple. Reiterate BUY. Downside risks include unexpectedly weak margins, higher-than-expected start-up expenses and the possibility of another lockdown affecting operations.

Source: Affin Hwang Research - 3 Mar 2021