Fundamental investment

Hypothesis of the current economy

Ivan Lim
Publish date: Tue, 15 Mar 2016, 10:08 PM
Long term investment in Malaysia

Here is the current situation of economy that i found.

First,let us ask ourselves ,in what situation that US fed will increase interest rate?because of good employment rate?inflation?bla bla bla.

What maybe the true concern of US fed when increase interest rate?

From my opinion,it should be base on the stability of US bond market.US Fd is very worry that when  they increase interest rate ,then treasury bond market yield will increase.Eventually cause panic sell of US bond ,and collapse of bond market.It is very serious case if it happen as all the world will go into a hyperinflation environment.Besides,all the stock market will be revalue base on the bond yield of us after panic sell.

In order to increase interest rate while still stabilize the bond market.Only one weapon can use .

HOT MONEY

In other word,increase of us dollar will force hot money go back to america and some of the hot money will go to buy bond.

Besides,I speculate that European Union and Japan are helping US.They implement QE and zero interest rate.So that ,all the money will go out from the europe country bank.Some of the hot money will go to US to buy bond.Also,US rich man will borrow money from European Union because it has very cheap borrowing cost due to zero or negative interest rate.I believe they borrow money to save bond market also.(another speculation).

In other word,the timing of US increase interest rate is based on the quantity of hot money that go/wait to save bond market.

I believe US will not collapse so soon as Europe printed hot money will eventually help US bond market.However,stock market will drop gradually.And there will be continue chaos in developing country.But it will be gradual.( only China will suffer more due to high debt).

Economy history is full of lie ,dont believe them,ride on the trend.

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Created by Ivan Lim | Jan 01, 2019

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1 person likes this. Showing 1 of 1 comments

speakup

another dooms day article! when i read such article, I BUY!

2016-03-16 09:04

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