Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 30 Sep 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 30 Sep 2014, 09:36 AM

Asia

Japan PM Abe Vows To Keep Cautious Watch On Tax Hike's Impact. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Monday that he will carefully watch the impact of April's sales tax hike and rising fuel prices on the economy, as he must decide by yearend whether Japan can cope with a second tax increase next year. "We are aiming to revive the economy and proceed with fiscal consolidation at the same time, and ensure a virtuous cycle in the economy," Abe said. "A major mission of the Abe cabinet is to make people in every corner of the country feel the economy's recovery." A sales tax rise to 8% from 5% in April pushed the economy into its deepest slump in the second quarter since the 2009 global financial crisis, raising some worries that a second hike to 10% could hit the economy harder. (Reuters)

Chinese Household Sentiment On Home Prices Dips In Third Quarter – Survey. Sentiment on home prices in China fell in the third quarter from the same period a year ago as the property market weakened, a private survey of households showed on Monday, suggesting that a housing downturn may persist for some time yet. An index of expectations on home price fell to 100.6 in the third quarter from 102.6 between April and June, the survey by the China Household Finance and Survey Centre (CHFS) showed. The centre is a unit of China's Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. (Reuters)

China Revises Second Quarter Current Account Surplus To $73.4b. China revised its current account surplus for the second quarter to $73.4b from a preliminary figure of $72.2b, the country's foreign exchange regulator showed on Monday. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) also revised down its capital and financial account deficit for the second quarter to $16.2b from an initial figure of $36.9b, it said in a statement on its website, www.safe.gov.cn. (Reuters)

Weak Thai August Exports. Thai exports in August fell by the biggest percentage since bad flooding in late 2011, confirming that a key engine of the country’s economy is not firing. Exports dropped 7.4% from a year earlier, Commerce Ministry data showed yesterday, compared with the forecast of a 3.6% decline in a Reuters poll. In July, shipments slipped 0.85% from a year earlier. In the first eight months, exports have fallen 1.36% from a year earlier. (Reuters)

USA

Consumer Spending Climbs As Job Gains Boost Wages. Consumer spending rebounded in August as employment gains revived household earnings growth and encouraged Americans to return to shops and car dealerships. The 0.5% increase in purchases was more than forecast and followed little change in July, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Incomes advanced, rising 0.3% last month as wages and salaries climbed the most in three months. (Bloomberg)

Pending Sales Of U.S. Existing Homes Fell 1% In August. Contracts to purchase previously owned homes declined in August as tighter credit and limited wage growth weigh on potential buyers. The pending home sales index dropped 1% after a 3.2% increase in July, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for the index to drop 0.5%. (Reuters)

Europe

Eurozone Business, Consumer Confidence Slips Further. Business and consumer confidence in the eurozone slipped again in September, official figures showed on Monday, adding further gloom to the outlook following other recent weak data. The European Commission said its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the 18-nation eurozone fell to 99.9 points in September from 100.6 in August, when it dropped a sharp 1.6 points. The index is now at its lowest since December, the Commission said. (AFP)

Steady German Inflation Could Prop Up Euro Zone Rate. Annual inflation in Europe's largest economy rose more than expected in September, data showed on Monday, potentially helping to keep euro zone rate stable, but remained low enough to keep pressure on the European Central Bank to revive the euro zone economy. Preliminary data from the Federal Statistics Office showed consumer price inflation, harmonized to compare with other European countries, held steady at 0.8% for a third consecutive month. The consensus forecast in a Reuters poll was for 0.7%. Other recent data has shown Spanish EU-harmonized consumer prices falling by 0.3% year-on-year in September compared with a previous 0.5% drop. Belgium saw deflation for the first time since November 2009. (Reuters)

UK House Prices Accelerated In August, Says Land Registry. Annual house price growth accelerated to 8.4% in England and Wales in August - the highest rate of increase for nearly seven years, figures show. The Land Registry said prices were up by 1% compared with July, with increases again driven by London. The figures do not reflect some commentators' views of a housing market starting to cool. But some areas, including Windsor and Maidenhead and South Yorkshire, have seen month-on-month falls. The Land Registry said the average house price in England and Wales was now £177,824 compared with the peak of £181,383 in November 2007. Over the last year, prices had risen by 21.6% in London. The slowest rate of increase was 3% in the North East of England. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Gains Against Emerging-Market Currencies. The U.S. dollar traded higher against most emerging-market currencies Monday afternoon after a day of choppy trading as worries about the protests in Hong Kong saw investors abandoning emerging-market currencies in favor of the strength of the greenback. The dollar remained flat for the day against its G-10 rivals. After falling from a six-year high of 2.4770 real Monday afternoon, the dollar traded at 2.4510, above Friday evening’s level of 2.4203 real. The greenback traded at 2.2790 Turkish lira, below its eight-month high of 2.2910, but above Friday’s level of 2.2639. The dollar traded at 39.4561 rubles in Monday afternoon trading, compared to 39.1524 rubles Friday evening. The dollar traded at 109.40 yen, up slightly from Friday’s level of ¥109.30, but off a high of ¥109.75 reached during the Asia trading day. The euro traded at $1.2694 Monday, up from a 22-month low of $1.2667 reached overnight. The shared currency bought $1.2684 late Friday. Among other currency pairs, the British pound fetched $1.6249, up from $1.6246. The dollar traded at 0.9509 Swiss francs Monday, compared to 0.9515 Friday. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index a measure of the dollar’s value against six rival currencies, was down 0.04% at 85.6040. (Market Watch)

Commodities

U.S. Crude Rises On Economic Data, Strong Products Market. U.S. crude oil rose on Monday backed by strong U.S. economic data, while Brent edged up after nearing a two-year low last week. U.S. crude for November delivery rose $1.03 to settle at $94.57 while Brent rose 20 cents to settle at $97.20 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Falls On Strong U.S. Data; Unrest In Hong Kong Eyed. Gold prices dropped on Monday after U.S. consumer spending data pointed to a strengthening economy, but losses were limited as pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong added to worries about growth in China. Spot gold was down 0.2% to $1,217.20 an ounce by 2:14 p.m. EDT (1814 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver fell 0.5% to $17.53 an ounce, just above a four-year low of $17.30 hit on Sept. 22. Platinum edged up 0.6% to $1,304.49 an ounce, after earlier hitting its lowest since June 2013 at $1,289.90. Palladium gained 1.9% to $785.20 an ounce. (Reuters)

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