Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 3 Oct 2014

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Publish date: Fri, 03 Oct 2014, 09:39 AM

Global

IMF Warns Of 'Mediocre' Growth, Calls For Coordinated Action. The global economy could be stuck on a 'new mediocre' growth path with high debt and unemployment unless policymakers open up labor markets, invest in infrastructure and reform fiscal policies, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Thursday. Speaking after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced a plan to buy bundled debt in order to boost Europe's flagging economy, Christine Lagarde said the euro zone in particular risks sinking into a morass of low growth as it grapples with high unemployment and low inflation. The United States is a rare bright spot, though its recovery from the 2007-09 recession is its slowest since World War Two. Japan's "Abenomics" is also struggling after second-quarter GDP in the world's third largest economy shrank by an annualized 7.1%, showing the mounting risks to the global economy ahead of the fund's fall meetings next week. Lagarde called for bold policies and a "new momentum" to bolster flagging growth six years after the global financial crisis erupted. (Reuters)

Asia

Japan Household Mood Worsens In Challenge To Abenomics: BOJ Survey. More Japanese felt they were worse off than three months ago as the cost of living rose and earnings fell, a central bank survey showed, casting doubt on premier Shinzo Abe's growth revival strategy as the economy sputters under the weight of a sales tax hike. A diffusion index measuring households' confidence on the economy fell at the biggest pace in more than three years to minus 20.4 in September, the worst reading since Abe's Liberal Democratic Party took power in a landmark election in December 2013, the quarterly BOJ survey showed on Thursday. A separate index gauging households' livelihood also hit a near two-year low as more respondents felt their cost of living rose even as salaries fell, due largely to a sales tax hike in April, according to the survey. (Reuters)

USA

Jobless Claims In U.S. Unexpectedly Decreased Last Week. The number of Americans who filed applications for unemployment benefits last week unexpectedly fell, a sign the job market is making more headway. Jobless claims dropped by 8,000 to 287,000 in the week ended Sept. 27, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 297,000. The number of people already collecting benefits decreased to an eight-year low. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Small Business Hiring Hits Eight-Month High In September. U.S. small businesses hired workers at the fastest pace in eight months in September, a suggestion the job market continues to strengthen despite a slowdown in hiring a month earlier. The National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly survey of its members found they added an average of 0.24 workers per firm last month, on a seasonally adjusted basis. NFIB chief economist William Dunkelberg said that was the highest level since December. The NFIB survey continued to suggest small businesses were having difficulty finding the workers they wanted. Fifty% of owners hired or tried to hire over the last three month, while 42% reported few or no qualified applicants. Twenty one% reported job openings they could not fill, it said. (Reuters)

Europe

ECB To Start Asset Buying Programme. The European Central Bank has kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.05% and given details of its asset purchase programme announced last month. The bank's head Mario Draghi said it would start buying covered bonds this month and other assets in the final three months of the year. He said it would continue to buy assets for two years. Mr Draghi did not say how much the bank would spend on buying assets, just that the programme would have a "sizeable impact on the bank's balance sheet" and would support specific market sectors. (BBC)

Euro Zone Factory Prices Slip Again In August. Euro zone factory prices fell slightly less than expected in August as the cost of heavy machinery rose, but still underscored the need for governments and the ECB to do more to lift the bloc's depressed economy. Prices at factory gates in the 18 countries using the euro slid 0.1% from July, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat said on Thursday, pulled down by a drop in energy costs as the slide in oil prices weighed. Economists polled by Reuters forecast a 0.2% drop. (Reuters)

World Bank: Ukraine GDP To Shrink 8% This Year. Ukraine's economy is likely to suffer more than previously predicted because of the conflict in the east of the country, the World Bank has said. It now says that GDP is likely to contract by 8% this year, compared with its previous prediction of 5%. It also now expects a 1% contraction in 2015, instead of 2.5% growth. The prediction comes as pro-Russian separatists and government forces vie for control of the airport in the eastern city of Donetsk. (BBC)

Currencies

Euro Rallies As ECB's Draghi Gives No Hint Of Imminent QE. The euro gained against the dollar on Thursday for the first time in eight days after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi gave no indication of an imminent stimulus program through the purchase of sovereign bonds. The euro rose as high as $1.2698 and was last at $1.2690, up 0.5%. That was the euro's first gain since Sept. 22. Meanwhile, the dollar fell 0.6% against the yen to 108.19 after weak global manufacturing data and a U.S. Ebola health scare sent investors in search of safer assets. It hit a nine-day low versus the yen on risk aversion. The dollar index fell 0.6% to 85.471, pulling away from a four-year high of 86.218 touched on Tuesday as investors took profits after the greenback's recent rally. (Reuters)

Commodities

Oil Prices Deepen Slide On Glut Worry; U.S. Crude Bounces. Global oil prices deepened a three-month rout on Thursday to hit their lowest since mid-2012, fuelled by growing concerns over weak demand, abundant supply and signs that Saudi Arabia is in no hurry to cut output. Brent crude for November delivery also ended well off the day's low, settling 74 cents lower at $93.42. It earlier sank to $91.55, its lowest since June 2012. U.S. November crude settled up 28 cents at $91.01 per barrel, after earlier sinking to $88.18, its lowest intraday level since April 2013. (Reuters)

Gold Eases As Economic Optimism Weighs; Geopolitics Eyed. Gold prices slipped on Thursday, pressured by steadily falling crude oil prices and an encouraging U.S. economic outlook, but geopolitical concerns provided some support, traders said. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,212.25 an ounce by 3:14 p.m. EDT (1914 GMT), less than $10 above a nine-month low of $1,204.40 reached on Tuesday. In other precious metals, silver was down 0.6% at $17.04 an ounce, trading just above its lowest level since March 2010. Platinum fell 1% to $1,262.25 an ounce after falling to a five-year low in the previous session, and palladium dropped 1.1% to $765.75 an ounce. (Reuters)

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