Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 20 Oct 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 20 Oct 2014, 09:51 AM

Malaysia

Malaysia Secures RM2.35b German Investments. Malaysia has attracted RM2.35b in investments from Germany during the its recent investment mission here. International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said the bulk of the investments were from the renewable energy sub-sector and the semiconductor sub-sector. Other areas included oil and gas, chemicals and advanced machinery, he said. (NST)

Asia

Singapore Sept Exports Creep Up As Europe, US Disappoint. Singapore's exports in September rose less than expected as sales to Europe contracted and shipments to the US slowed, adding to concerns that a sluggish global economy may bite into the city-state's exports. Non-oil domestic exports grew 0.9% in September from a year earlier, trade agency International Enterprise Singapore said in a statement on Friday. That compared with a 2.6% growth forecast in a Reuters poll, and a 6% increase in August. On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, NODX dropped 8.8%, much weaker than the 4% decline forecast in the poll. (Reuters)

Indonesia Q2 Investments Up As Confidence Grows. Investments in Indonesia picked up in the July-to-September period as Joko Widodo’s presidential election win provided some certainty for domestic business to start realising their investments. Total investment realisation in the country reached 119.9 trillion rupiah (RM32b) in the third quarter of this year, an increase of 19% from the same period last year, according to a report released by Indonesia’s Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) last Friday. That compared with 16% year-on-year growth in the second quarter and 15% pace in first quarter. (NST)

China’s PBOC Said To Plan $32.7b Bank Injection. China’s central bank is said to plan the injection of about 200b yuan ($32.7b) into some national and regional lenders as Premier Li Keqiang steps up stimulus to support economic growth. The People’s Bank of China is providing funds to joint-stock banks to help them prepare for year-end liquidity needs, a government official familiar with the matter said yesterday, asking not to be identified because there hasn’t been an official announcement. Joint-stock banks are mid-sized national banks with mixed ownership. (Bloomberg)

BOJ Bill-Buy Offer Fails To Attract Sellers, Shows Limits Of Easing Strategy. The Bank of Japan's offer to buy over $28b of government bills on Friday fell short of enticing enough sellers, the first failure since the BOJ began the current stimulus last year and a sign of the receding potency of its easing program. The failure underscores growing difficulties of force-feeding banks with liquidity as they become less eager to take cash from the BOJ in a faltering economy. Commercial banks are often struggling to find ways to expand their own lending. The BOJ's offer to buy 3.0 trillion yen ($28.23b) of discount government bills attracted offers of only 2.622 trillion yen, the first time since May 2012 it hasn't been able to buy bills in the amount it has sought. It suggests banks are now not willing, or possibly just do not have government bills, to sell to the BOJ even at a negative yield level. (Reuters)

South Korea September Producer Prices Fall Fastest In Six Months. South Korea's producer prices fell in September from a year earlier for a second consecutive month, central bank data showed on Monday, as cheap crude oil continued to keep price pressures soft. Producer prices in September dipped 0.4% from a year ago, the Bank of Korea said in statement, the fastest rate of fall since a 0.5% decline in March this year. Producer prices fell 0.3% last month from August. Prices were pulled down mainly by industrial goods, which fell 1.9% last month on annual terms. This was also the steepest drop since March. (Reuters)

USA

Consumer Sentiment In U.S. Increases To A Seven-Year High. Consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in October to the highest level in seven years, showing a brightening in Americans’ moods as gas prices drop and the labor market gains traction. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for this month increased to 86.4, the strongest since July 2007, from a final reading of 84.6 in September. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of 67 economists called for 84. (Bloomberg)

Gain In Home Building Points To Sustained U.S. Growth. Builders started work on more homes in September and American consumers this month were the most optimistic in seven years, signaling the U.S. economy will ride out a global slowdown. Housing starts climbed 6.3% to a 1.02 million annualized rate from a 957,000 pace in August as multifamily and single-family projects advanced, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. (Bloomberg)

Europe

‘BOE May Keep Rates Lower For Longer Period’. The Bank of England (BoE) may need to keep interest rates lower for longer than previously thought to reduce the chance of the economy slipping into long-term stagnation, its chief economist Andrew Haldane said yesterday. Haldane said he was now more downbeat on the outlook for Britain’s economy due to weaker global growth, greater financial and political risks and the danger that wages and productivity may continue to fail to recover as forecast. “Put in rather plainer English, I am gloomier,” said Haldane. (Reuters)

Germany's Schaeuble Wants More Investment But No New Debt. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told a newspaper on Sunday that he wanted to increase investment spending and improve competitiveness in Europe's biggest economy but not at the expense of achieving a balanced budget next year. In an interview with the Welt am Sonntag, Schaeuble said criticism of the government on insufficient investment or lacking competitiveness was justified, but that Berlin was working on these at both the national and European levels. "It will not all happen overnight. But we must work on certain things now, like the European digital union, the energy union or the sustainable maintaining of our infrastructure." (Reuters)

OECD Sees French Reforms Boosting GDP Growth 0.3% Points Per Year. The OECD prodded France on Friday to step up the pace of its reforms, though it estimated that those already in the pipeline would gradually deliver tangible economic growth gains. Various proposed reforms could boost the country's average growth by 0.3%age points annually over five years, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said. The OECD's approval of President Francois Hollande's reforms, particularly a planned cut in payroll tax, will be welcomed by the unpopular government as it battles to rein in its finances in the face of anaemic growth. (Reuters)

Russia Rating Cut By Moody’s On Sluggish Economic Growth. Russia’s credit rating was cut to the second-lowest investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited sluggish growth prospects and an erosion of the country’s reserves amid sanctions over Ukraine. Moody’s downgraded the sovereign one level to Baa2 from Baa1 and kept a negative outlook on the rating on Oct. 17. It is in line with Fitch Ratings Ltd.’s credit grade and one step above Standard & Poor’s, which lowered Russia to BBB- in April. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Index Finishes Volatile Week Slightly Lower. The ICE U.S. dollar index finished a volatile week slightly lower Friday as investors looked ahead to data from China, the U.S. and Europe next week. The index a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 85.2000 Friday afternoon, compared with 84.950. The euro, which accounts for more than half of the index’s value, finished the week slightly higher against the greenback. It traded at $1.2761 Friday afternoon, compared with $1.2814 late Thursday. The dollar traded at 106.87 yen, compared with ¥106.39 Thursday. The pound traded at $1.6092 Friday afternoon, compared with $1.6108 late Thursday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Continues To Show Gains In Corrective Move. Global crude oil continued to show modest gains on Friday, bouncing from near four-year lows as investors bought back into a market they said was oversold, and as fighting in Iraq increased political risk. Brent for December rose $1.52 to a high of $87.34, before slipping back to around $85.83 a barrel by 1:04 p.m. ET (1704 GMT), but was still on track for its fourth weekly loss in a row. The November Brent contract expired on Thursday. U.S. November crude, heading for its third weekly decline, was up 18 cents at $82.88. (Reuters)

Gold Posts Weekly Gain On Economic Fears, U.S. Fed View. Gold edged lower on Friday as U.S. equities rebounded, but posted a second straight weekly gain as concerns over the global economy have raised speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep interest rates low for longer. Spot gold inched down 35 cents to $1,238.70 an ounce by 2:37 p.m. EDT (1837 GMT). Among other precious metals, palladium rose 2.1% to $750.10 an ounce. It fell as much as 5% to $725.10 in the previous session. Platinum was up 1.6% at $1,256.74 an ounce. Spot silver dropped 0.5% to $17.24 an ounce. (Reuters)

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