Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 29 Oct 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 29 Oct 2014, 10:57 AM

Asia

Japan Output Rise Most in Eight Months as Abe Weighs Tax. Japanese industrial production rose the most since January, a sign companies are shaking off a blow from a higher sales tax. Output increased 2.7% in September from the previous month, the trade ministry said in Tokyo today, more than a median estimate of 2.2% in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. (Bloomberg)

USA

Durable Goods Orders in U.S. Decrease for Second Month. A slowdown in global growth, resulting in plunging commodity prices, is prompting U.S. companies to say the glass is half empty. American consumers see it as half full. Orders to American factories for long-lasting equipment unexpectedly dropped 1.3% in September, indicating businesses worldwide are reluctant to spend on expanding output, Commerce Department data showed today in Washington. Consumer confidence this month jumped to a seven-year high, according to figures from the Conference Board. (Bloomberg)

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Increases to a Seven-Year High.Consumer confidence advanced in October as Americans enjoyed further price drops at the gas pump and the job market continued to improve.The Conference Board’s index climbed to 94.5 this month, the highest since October 2007, from a September reading of 89 that was stronger than initially estimated, the New York-based private research group said today. The gauge exceeded the most optimistic projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. (Bloomberg)

Home Prices in U.S. Show Slower Year-to-Year Increase in August.Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose at a weaker pace in the year ended in August as borrowing standards remain tight and wage gains fail to accelerate. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 5.6% from August 2013, the smallest gain since November 2012, after rising 6.7% in the year ended in July, a report from the group showed today in New York. The median projection of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 5.7% advance. Nationally, prices rose 5.1% year-to-year after a 5.6% gain in July. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Euro Outflows at Record Pace as ECB Promotes Exodus. For European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, the price of a weaker euro to boost the economy and stave off deflation is a record exodus from the continent’s financial assets. Domestic and foreign investors spurred 187.7 billion euros ($239 billion) of fixed-income outflows from the euro area in the six months through August, the most in ECB data going back to the currency’s debut in 1999. That’s helped push the euro down 2.6% versus a basket of nine developed-market peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes this year, the biggest decline since 2010, when the euro-region debt crisis was taking hold. (Bloomberg)

Sweden cuts interest rates to zero. The Swedish central bank has cut its main interest rate to zero in an attempt to combat deflation. The cut of 0.25% was bigger than analysts had expected, and led to a fall in the kronor against the dollar and the euro. Prices are currently falling in Sweden and the central bank wants to get back to its 2% inflation target. "The Swedish economy is relatively strong... But inflation is too low," the bank said. It therefore decided that "monetary policy needs to be even more expansionary". Rates would remain at zero until "inflation clearly picks up", it added. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar slips on weak data as Fed policy-makers meet.The dollar fell on Tuesday, as U.S. durable goods and home price data disappointed investors and raised worries about the economy as Federal Reserve officials began a two-day policy meeting. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six currencies, last traded 0.1% lower at 85.40 after touching its lowest in four sessions. The greenback briefly turned negative against the yen on the weaker domestic data but regained most of its earlier rise and was last up 0.2% at 108.02 yen, not far from Monday's nearly three-week peak of 108.38. The dollar weakened against the euro, with the euro zone currency last at $1.2737, up 0.3% on the day. On the other hand, the dollar rose as high as 7.3824 crowns, its highest since September 2010. It last traded at 7.3320 crowns, up 0.5% on the day. (Reuters)

Commodities

Oil rises after 2-day loss; U.S. inventories seen up again.Crude oil prices closed higher on Tuesday, with Brent finishing just above $86 a barrel after two straight days of losses, helped by a weaker dollar and a rally on Wall Street. Brent had settled up 20 cents at $86.03 a barrel. U.S. crude finished 42 cents higher at $81.42 a barrel, after hitting a more than twoyear low of $79.44 on Monday. (Reuters)

Gold firms on weak U.S. durable goods data; Fed eyed. Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday as softer-than-expected U.S. consumer spending data pressured the dollar, ahead of a closely-watched Federal Reserve policy statement. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,228.47 an ounce by 2:49 p.m. EDT (1849 GMT), having earlier hit a two-week low of 1,222.20 an ounce. Silver climbed 0.7% to $17.20 an ounce. Platinum was up 1% at $1,260.40 an ounce and palladium climbed 1.8% to $790.70, having earlier hit a near-three-week high at $798 an ounce. (Reuters)

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