Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 30 Oct 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 30 Oct 2014, 09:53 AM

Global

Global Consumer Confidence Improves, India Most Bullish: Nielsen. Consumer confidence in the United States jumped in the third quarter and improved globally, although people were more optimistic about job prospects than their personal finances, a survey showed on Wednesday. India remained the most bullish consumer market, while Italy became the most pessimistic, according to the survey by global information and insights company Nielsen. The survey showed that concerns about the economy and job prospects had eased globally from the second quarter, but in North America and Europe that had been replaced by rising worries about war and terrorism. European countries generally were the most pessimistic, reflecting the conflict in Ukraine, faltering growth and the risk of deflation in the euro zone. Britain and Germany, however, saw consumer confidence improve. The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index rose 1 point in the third quarter to 98, according to the survey, conducted between Aug. 13 and Sept. 5. (Reuters)

Malaysia

Gas Malaysia Ups Natural Gas Tariff For Non-Power Sector From Nov 1. Gas Malaysia Bhd will raise the natural gas tariff for the non-power sector in Peninsular Malaysia to an average of RM19.77 per million British Thermal Unit (MMBtu) from RM19.32. It said on Wednesday the revised tariff would take effect on Saturday, Nov 1 but that “there will be no change to the selling prices for customers under category A”. Gas Malaysia said Category A customers represent the residential segment where the tariff will remain at RM19.52 per MMBtu. In addition, this tariff increase does not apply to Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). Gas Malaysia said the approval of the tariff increase by the government would be subject to a sixth-monthly adjustment of both the selling and purchase prices in an effort to address subsidy rationalisation. (The Star)

Malaysia Ranks 18th Best World Bank’s ‘Doing Business’. Malaysia moved up two rungs to 18th position under the World Bank's latest methodology for Doing Business 2015. The country was ranked 20th in the previous year. Today, the World Bank announced that it has adopted the new methodology due to several limitations posed by the previous methodology such as loss of information, inability to track progress and inequaility in business-friendliness measured in larger countries. The ranking is now based on the distance to frontier score rather than the percentile rank, which places Malaysia at the position for 2015. Within the 10 Doing Business indicators the best rankings for Malaysia compared to the other 189 countries were fifth position in protecting minority investors and 11th position for trading across borders. (NST)

Asia

World Bank Urges China To Cut Economic Growth Target To 7% In 2015, Focus On Reforms. China can cut its economic growth target to 7% next year without hurting its labor market, the World Bank said on Wednesday even as it urged Beijing to get rid of rigid growth objectives. At its thrice-yearly review of the Chinese economy, the World Bank warned China against carrying its "ambitious" 2014 economic growth target of 7.5% into next year, saying that such a move would detract from the government's reform plans. The World Bank and other analysts expect the economy to expand by 7.4% this year, the slackest in 24 years, and a hair's breadth from the 7.5% target. And the World Bank made clear that it would not welcome a similar growth target from China next year. (Reuters)

China Factory Profit Growth Slows. China’s industrial profit growth slowed in the first nine months, reinforcing signs of fragility in the world’s second largest economy, as factories struggled with falling prices and softening domestic demand. Industrial companies made a combined profit of 4.37 trillion yuan (US$714.68bil) between January and September, up 7.9% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday. That compares with a 10% rise in the first eight months. The slowdown was partly caused by a special levy on the incomes of some oil and gas firms, which led to a writedown of profits, He Ping, an official at the bureau’s industrial department, said in a statement. (Reuters)

Singapore Tops World Bank Business Ranking For Ninth Year. Singapore has been ranked the best country to do business for a ninth consecutive year, according to an annual survey by the World Bank. New Zealand came second and Hong Kong third in the lender's "Doing Business" report which rates 189 nations by the ease in which firms can operate there. The UK moved up one position to eighth while the US stayed at number seven. Overall, the report found it is easier to do business globally in both developed and emerging economies as they adopt better practices and regulatory reforms that facilitate businesses. (BBC)

Thai Exports Unexpectedly Rebound. Thailand’s exports and imports unexpectedly rebounded in September, a rare piece of good news for the military government which is struggling to revive the economy after seizing power in May. The country’s exports have been struggling at a time when other Asian exporters have started to reap from a recovering US economy and a spurt in global demand for smartphones and other tech goods. Exports, which were equal to more than 60% of the Thai economy each year, rose 3.19% from a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said yesterday, compared with a 0.25% drop in a Reuters poll. Shipments to all key markets were higher, except China, boosted by signs of recovery in key markets. (Reuters)

Americas

US Federal Reserve Ends QE Stimulus Programme. The US Federal Reserve has announced it is ending its quantitative easing (QE) stimulus programme begun in 2008. The Fed said it was confident the US economic recovery would continue, despite a global economic slowdown. The targets for inflation and reduction in unemployment were on track, the Fed said in a statement. The central bank, which also said it would not raise interest rates for a "considerable time", has gradually cut back QE since last year. (BBC)

U.S. Loan Applications To Buy Homes Lowest Since February: MBA. U.S. mortgage applications to buy homes fell to their lowest level last week since February as interest rates on 30-year home loans edged up from the previous week's 16-month trough, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, fell 5.0% in the week ended Oct. 24 to its lowest level since February. It was 15% lower than the same week a year earlier. (Reuters)

Brazil Unexpectedly Lifts Rate On Rousseff Vow To Tame CPI. Brazil unexpectedly raised its key rate for the first time since April, after President Dilma Rousseff said she would vigorously fight inflation in her second term. Policy makers, led by central bank President Alexandre Tombini, voted 5-to-3 to raise the benchmark Selic by a quarter-point to 11.25%, saying the move would reduce the cost of ensuring a better inflation outlook in 2015 and 2016. One of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg correctly forecast the increase while the remaining expected the rate to be left unchanged for the fourth straight meeting. (Bloomberg)

Europe

EU Rejects No Budgets After France, Italy Last-Ditch Bids. The European Union said no nation has broken EU budget rules by a big enough margin to warrant immediate action, a move that gives France and Italy more time to win approval for their draft spending plans. “After taking into account all of the further information and improvements communicated to us in recent days, I cannot immediately identify cases of particularly serious non-compliance which would oblige us to consider a negative opinion at this stage in the process,” European Commission Vice President Jyrki Katainen said in a statement. The Brussels-based commission had previously welcomed last-ditch attempts from euro-area nations to meet the bloc’s requirements, without signaling whether they would succeed. Letters that the French and Italian governments sent to the commission detailing additional action are “useful and constructive contributions,” commission spokesman Simon O’Connor told reporters in Brussels yesterday. “We are still analyzing the information.” (Bloomberg)

UK Mortgage Approvals Fall To Lowest Since July 2013 In September. British lenders approved the fewest mortgages in more than a year last month, as evidence mounts that a big rebound in housing market activity over the past year has come off the boil. The Bank of England said mortgage approvals for house purchase fell to 61,267 in September, down from 64,054 in August -- a bigger fall than economists had forecast though similar to the decline reported last week by the British Bankers' Association. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Surges Against Rivals After Fed Ends QE. The U.S. dollar surged against its key rivals on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it would conclude its bond-buying stimulus program and expressed an optimistic tone about the economy. The dollar was at ¥108.83 up from ¥108.13 just before the Fed decision, and ¥108.16 late Tuesday. The euro was at $1.2642, down sharply from $1.2734. The ICE Dollar index was at 85.979, versus 85.404 in the previous session. The British pound slipped to $1.6021 from $1.6137. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Ends Up As U.S. Crude Stocks Rise Less Than Expected. Oil prices closed higher on Wednesday for a second day in a row after data showed U.S. crude stockpiles rose less than expected last week, ending two weeks of builds that pressured the market. Benchmark Brent crude oil for December settled up $1.09 at $87.12 a barrel, after touching an intraday high of $87.94. Front-month U.S. crude finished up 78 cents at $82.20, after rising as high as $82.88 during the session. (Reuters)

Gold Falls As Fed Focuses On Bright U.S. Economic Outlook. Gold prices fell nearly 1.5% on Wednesday as jittery bullion investors offloaded bullish bets after the U.S. Federal Reserve gave an upbeat outlook for jobs growth and it ended its years-long bond buying stimulus program. Spot gold was down 1.4% at $1,210.20 an ounce by 3:22 p.m. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.6% at $17.04 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.5% to $1,255.75 an ounce, while palladium rose 0.3% to $791.75 an ounce. (Reuters)

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