Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 3 Nov 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 03 Nov 2014, 09:35 AM

Malaysia

Domestic PPI For September Up 0.6%. Malaysia's domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) for September rose 0.6% to 126.2 from 125.5 in the same month last year, the Statistics Department said today. Month-on-month, the domestic PPI increased 0.2% from 126.0 in August. This was due to an increase in the PPI for local production by 0.3% and a fall in the import price index by 0.1%. (Bernama)

Asia

BOJ Shocks By Expanding Stimulus, Sending Stocks Soaring. Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda on Friday led a divided board to expand what was already an unprecedentedly large monetary stimulus program, boosting stocks and sending the yen tumbling. Kuroda, 70, and four of his eight fellow board members voted to raise the BOJ’s annual target for enlarging the monetary base to ¥80tril, up from ¥60 to ¥70tril, the central bank said in Tokyo. The bank will purchase exchange-traded funds so their amounts outstanding rise by about ¥3tril a year, the bank said. Japanese real estate investment trusts will be purchased with a view to raising their amounts outstanding by about ¥90b annually. The average remaining maturity of the BOJ’s purchases of Japanese government bonds will increase to about seven to 10 years, three years longer than previously. (Japan Times)

BOJ Cuts GDP Forecast And Trims Price Outlook. The Bank of Japan cut in half its economic forecast for the current fiscal year on Friday after demand weakened in the wake of a sales tax hike in April. The BOJ also slightly lowered its CPI forecast for fiscal 2014 and fiscal 2015, but still expects to meet its inflation target within the two-year timeframe it originally set out. The central bank said it now expects real gross domestic product to increase 0.5% in the current fiscal year to March 2015, versus the 1.0% growth it forecast in July. It now expects core consumer inflation of 1.2% in the current fiscal year, followed by 1.7% in the next fiscal year and 2.1% in fiscal 2016/17. (Reuters)

China Manufacturing Slows As Growth Pressures Deepen. China’s manufacturing slowed further in October, as a property slump and slowdown in investment growth put the world’s second-largest economy on course for the slowest fullyear growth since 1990. The government’s Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 50.8 in October, trailing the 51.2 median estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg News survey and compared with September’s 51.1. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. (Bloomberg)

China's Shadow Banking Sector Growing Rapidly, Third Largest In World. China's shadow banking sector continued to grow at breakneck speed in 2013 and now ranks as the third largest in the world, a report released by the Financial Stability Board showed on Thursday. "Among emerging markets, the size and rapid growth of shadow banking in China warrants particular attention," the report said. In China, assets of "other financial intermediaries" - which exclude traditional financial institutions such as banks, pension funds and insurance companies - grew more than 37% year-on-year in 2013 to just under $3tril, data released with the report showed. That's a slight moderation in growth from roughly 42% growth in 2012, according to the FSB. Still, China's growth in assets of non-bank financial intermediaries in 2013 was second only to Argentina. (Reuters)

South Korea Exports Rise 2.5% In October, Trade Surplus At Record. South Korean exports rose slightly faster than expected in October but imports saw their sharpest drop in 13 months, dragged down by softer demand for raw materials and capital goods, data showed on Saturday. Shipments were mainly propped up by demand from the United States and China, while consumer goods imports gained, easing concerns over a slow recovery in domestic spending. Exports grew 2.5% to $51.8b in October from a year earlier and imports fell 3.0% to $44.3b, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said on Saturday. Imports fell by the sharpest annual pace since a 3.5% decline in September 2013. This resulted in a trade surplus of a record $7.5b, compared to a $3.4b surplus in September. (Reuters)

USA

U.S. Consumer Spending Falters; Wage Gains Highest Since 2008. U.S. consumer spending fell for the first time in eight months in September, suggesting the economy lost some momentum heading into the fourth quarter. But rising consumer sentiment and faster wage growth suggest the weakness in spending will be temporary, with the economy remaining on firm ground. The Commerce Department said on Friday that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, slipped 0.2% last month after rising 0.5% in August. The decline was the first since January. Another report from the Labor Department showed wages and salaries rose 0.8% in the third quarter, the largest increase in more than six years. (Reuters)

U.S. Consumer Sentiment At Highest Since July 2007. U.S. consumer sentiment rose in October to its highest level since in more than seven years on growing optimism about the economy and more favorable personal financial expectations, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final October reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment finished at 86.9, the highest level since July 2007, up from 84.6 at the end of September. The late October reading was up slightly from its initial figure of 86.4, which was also the expected reading of economists polled by Reuters. (Reuters)

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