Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 5 Nov 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 05 Nov 2014, 09:53 AM

Asia Pacific

Japan's Aso: BOJ Easing Aimed At Beating Deflation; Watching Weak-Yen Impact. Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Tuesday that the Bank of Japan's monetary stimulus was aimed at beating deflation, resulting in a weaker yen as a "by product", and that he will watch the impact of higher import costs on Japanese firms. "Generally speaking, the weakening of the yen will have positive effects on exporters, but importers will face higher import costs, so we need to pay heed to this point," Aso told reporters after a cabinet meeting. (Reuters)

Singapore Says Will Adopt OECD Pact To Tackle Tax Cheats By 2018. Singapore will implement a global agreement on swapping tax information, aimed at ending offshore tax evasion, by 2018, provided certain conditions are met, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said. Singapore would adopt the standard drawn up by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) that will require countries to automatically share taxpayers' financial information as along as rival wealth management centers do the same. (Reuters)

Australia Trade Deficit Doubles On Commodity Prices. Australia's trade deficit more than doubled to A$2.26bn ($1.96bn) in September, data showed. Exports rose just 1% in the month, while imports were up 6% as Australia brought in more fuel. The deficit, a balance of goods and services, widened a lot more than market expectations of A$1.95bn and compared to a revised deficit of A$1.013bn in July. Falling prices of key commodities like iron ore is being blamed for the jump. (BBC)

Australia Loses 24,400 Jobs As Bureau Revises Employment Data. Australia’s labor market is weaker than previously reported, the nation’s statistics bureau said in a review released today, sending the currency lower as traders bet on an extended interest-rate pause. The total number of Australians employed in September was 24,400 fewer than previously reported and the jobless rate was 6.2%, compared with the prior 6.1%, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today. (Bloomberg)

New Zealand Jobs Growth Quickens As Interest Rates On Hold. New Zealand’s employers hired workers at a faster pace than economists forecast in the three months through September, after the central bank flagged a pause in its tightening cycle. Employment increased 0.8%, or by 18,000 jobs, from the second quarter when it grew 0.4%, Statistics New Zealand said in a report today in Wellington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 11 economists was for a 0.6% gain. The jobless rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest since the first quarter of 2009. Economists expected 5.5% unemployment. (Bloomberg)

USA

U.S. Exports Decline In Sign Of Global Slowdown. In one of the first signs that a global slowdown will limit how fast the world’s largest economy will grow, the trade deficit in the U.S. widened in September as exports slumped from a record. The gap grew by 7.6% to $43b, the biggest since May, from $40b in August, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The decrease in international sales was broad-based, with customers in Europe, Latin America and Japan all pulling back. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Factory Orders Fall, But Unfilled Orders Still Rising. New orders for U.S. factory goods fell for second straight month in September, a temporary setback for the manufacturing sector. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday orders dropped 0.6%. August's orders were slightly revised to show a 10.0% fall instead of the previously reported 10.1% decline. September's fall was in line with Wall Street's expectations. The almost broad-based decline in orders, which was led by aircraft, machinery, capital goods and computers and electronic products, is likely to be short-lived. A survey of national factories published on Monday showed a strong rebound in new order growth and backlogs in October. The increase was largely driven by domestic demand. (Reuters)

Europe

Eurozone Economic Forecast Cut By European Commission. The economy of the 18-country strong eurozone will grow by just 0.8% this year, the European Commission has said. The forecast is below the 1.2% estimate made earlier this year. The commission has also has cut its growth forecast for 2015 to 1.1% from 1.7%. EU vice president Jyrki Katainen said "the economic and employment situation is not improving fast enough". The report predicts that inflation in the eurozone will continue to be low and employment high. Continuing weakness in France and Italy would keep the brakes on recovery, it said. The EU executive said the eurozone's economy would not now reach a growth rate of 1.7% until 2016. (BBC)

U.K. Growth Forecasts Raised By European Commission On Spending. The European Commission raised its growth forecasts for the U.K. and said momentum in the economy will continue amid “robust” spending by consumers and businesses. Gross domestic product will grow 3.1% this year and 2.7% in 2015, up from projections of 2.7% and 2.5% made in May, the European Union’s Brussels-based executive said in a statement today. It sees growth slowing to 2.5% in 2016. (Bloomberg)

UK Construction Growth Slows To Five-Month Low. Growth in the UK construction sector fell to a five-month low in October as home building slowed sharply, a closely-watched survey has suggested. The Markit/CIPS UK construction Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 61.4 in October from 64.2 the month before. A figure above 50 indicates growth. The fall was steeper than economists had forecast, but was affected by house building which saw its slowest rate of growth for a year. Civil and commercial work also slowed. Despite the slowdown, the construction sector has now expanded for 18 months in a row, marking its longest continuous period of growth since the start of the financial crisis in 2007. And Markit said construction firms reported a strong outlook overall, with more than half of firms expecting output to increase over the next year. (BBC)

Greece Exited Recession In Second Quarter. Greece’s gross domestic product expanded in the second quarter on a seasonally-adjusted basis, ending the worst recession since World War II for the country at the center of Europe’s debt crisis, according to the European Commission. Greece’s economy is expected to grow 0.6% this year, before GDP expands 2.9% in 2015, the Commission said today in its Autumn Economic Forecast. Those forecasts are unchanged from its last report in May. For 2016 it predicts growth of 3.7%. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

U.S. Dollar Index Falls Below Key Threshold. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index dipped back below a psychologically significant threshold of 87.0000 Tuesday afternoon as the euro strengthened against the greenback. The euro surged against the dollar Tuesday, rising as high as $1.2579, as investors took profits following four sessions of losses. The shared currency last traded at $1.2556, compared to $1.2504 late Monday. The dollar index was down 0.33% on the day at 86.9780. The kiwi traded at 78.12 cents, compared to 77.40 cents late Monday. Sterling traded at $1.5995, compared to $1.5981 Monday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Swoons As Oversupply Fears Extend Losses. Oil markets retreated from multi-year lows on Tuesday but still fell more than 2% after Saudi Arabia cut export prices to the United States threatening to deepen a global supply glut that has driven prices down 30% since June. U.S. crude futures settled down $1.59 at $77.19 after reaching the lowest intraday price since October 2011 in the morning. The price of Brent for next-month delivery settled down $1.96 at $82.82 after touching its lowest point since October 2010. (Reuters)

Gold Rises As Dollar Drops, Breaks 4-Day Drop. Gold rose on Tuesday, snapping a four-session losing streak, boosted by a drop in the dollar index and expectations of Asian physical demand following bullion's tumble to a four-year low. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,167.75 an ounce by 2:09 p.m. EDT (1809 GMT), while U.S. COMEX gold futures for December delivery settled down $2.10 at $1,167.70. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.6% at $16.01 an ounce. Spot platinum was down 0.9% at $1,221.99 an ounce, while spot palladium dropped 1.7% to $785.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

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