Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 13 Nov 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 13 Nov 2014, 10:26 AM

Asia

South Korea October Bank Lending To Households Up Most On Record. South Korea's bank lending to households in October rose by the biggest monthly amount in nearly seven years, led by mortgage borrowings, central bank data showed on Wednesday, a day before its monthly policy meeting. Bank lending to households rose by a net 6.4 trillion won ($5.82b) during October, the biggest monthly gain on record since data was compiled in January 2008 and far more than a 4.3 trillion won gain in September. Mortgage lending grew by a net 5.5 trillion won in October, also the biggest rise on record and compared with a 4.1 trillion won gain in September, Bank of Korea data showed. (Reuters)

India Inflation Eases As Factory Output Grows In Rajan Boost. India’s retail inflation eased more than economists predicted and factory output exceeded estimates, taking some pressure off central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan to lower interest rates. Consumer prices rose 5.52% in October from a year earlier, the Statistics Ministry said in New Delhi today, after a 6.46% increase the previous month. That was the slowest pace since the index was created in January 2012. The median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was 5.69%. Industrial production grew 2.5% in September compared with a revised 0.5% in August and 0.8% predicted in a separate survey. (Bloomberg)

USA

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise Modestly In September. U.S. wholesale inventories rose more that expected in September but the government revised downward its initial estimates for growth in stocks during August, which suggests little impact on current views of economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday wholesale inventories increased 0.3% during the month after a 0.6% gain in August. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2% increase in September. (Reuters)

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall In Latest Week: MBA. Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week as interest rates rose, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, declined 0.9% in the week ended Nov. 7. The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 1.9%, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, rose 1.1%. (Reuters)

Europe

Euro Zone Industry Output Rises Slightly In September. Output at euro zone factories rose in September, lifted by machinery and energy, but the increase was slightly less than expected and highlighted how few cars and televisions Europeans are buying as the recovery falters. Industrial output in the 18 countries sharing the euro rose 0.6% in September from the previous month, a partial reversal of the 1.4 fall in August, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expected factory output, two-thirds of which is generated by Germany, France and Italy, to rise 0.7% in September. Production of so-called durable consumer goods, including televisions and fridges, fell by 2.6%, the biggest monthly fall since August 2011. (Reuters)

U.K. Unemployment Stays At 6% As Wage Growth Accelerates. U.K. unemployment held at a six-year low in the third quarter and wage growth accelerated as the labor market continued to improve. The jobless rate based on International Labor Organization methods was 6%, the same as in the three months through August, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. Wages grew an annual 1%, faster than the 0.8% predicted by economists in a Bloomberg survey, and basic pay outstripped inflation for the first time since 2009. (Bloomberg)

Bank Of England Warns Inflation Could Drop Below 1%. The Bank of England has warned that inflation could fall below 1% in the next six months, owing to lower food, energy and import prices, as well as feeble growth in Europe and elsewhere. Governor Mark Carney said he did not expect inflation to reach the targeted rate of 2% for three years. The Bank also cut its prediction for UK economic growth in 2015 to 2.9%. However, the Bank said it expected average salaries to be growing by 2% by the end of 2015. (BBC)

Currencies

Pound Falls To 14-Month Low Against Dollar. The pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar in 14 months Wednesday, pushed lower by the Bank of England’s decision to revise inflation projections downward. That in turn pushed investors’ expectations of an interest rate increase further into the future. The pound hit $1.5776 in afternoon trading, its lowest level since Sept. 11, 2013. It traded at $1.5914 late Tuesday. The dollar traded flat against the euro and yen as investors awaited the release of important U.S. economic data later in the week. The euro traded at $1.2438, compared to $1.2466 Tuesday. The dollar traded at 115.56 yen compared to ¥115.72 Tuesday. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.3% on the day to 87.8010. (Market Watch)

Commodities

· Brent Slides Below $80, Saudis Mum On Calls For Output Cuts. Benchmark Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since 2010 on technical selling, pressure from a strong dollar and after Saudi Arabia's oil minister refused to say if the kingdom will support calls from some OPEC members to cut crude output. Brent hit a session low of $79.84, its lowest since September 2010, before settling down $1.29 at $80.38. After settlement, Brent slid below $80 again. U.S. oil touched a session low of $76.63, then settled down 76 cents at $77.18. (Reuters)

Gold Pares Earlier Gains To Trade Flat; Dollar Up. Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday as dollar gains pulled the metal down from earlier highs, and overall sentiment stayed with the bears as outflows from bullion funds showed no sign of slowing. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,163.40 an ounce by 11:32 p.m. EST (1632 GMT). In other precious metals, silver fell 0.5% to $15.61, while platinum was down 0.7% at $1,194.40 and palladium gained 1% to $775.95. (Reuters)

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