Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 27 Nov 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 27 Nov 2014, 09:51 AM

Malaysia

Moody’s Says US Rate Hike May Affect Malaysia. Moody’s Investors Service has warned that any “disorderly” market reaction to a possible United States rate hike next year could pose a risk to Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. “This is due to the significant, although decreasing, share of government debt denominated in foreign currency,” it said. Malaysia is rated “A3” positive, Thailand “Baa1” stable and the Philippines “Baa3” positive. “However, in all three cases, given the presence of compensating factors, including projected current-account surpluses, Moody’s does not expect significant sovereign credit distress, even if global liquidity tightens substantially.” In its Global Sovereign Outlook published yesterday, Moody’s said the outlook for its rated sovereigns in Southeast Asia is generally stable, in line with the global sovereign as a gradual global recovery that supports credit quality. (NST)

USA

U.S. Consumer Spending Rebounds, Income Rises Modestly. U.S. consumer spending rebounded in October, suggesting some resilience in the economy at the start of the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday consumer spending increased 0.2% last month after being flat in September. Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was previously reported to have declined 0.2% in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending rising 0.3% last month. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending also rose 0.2% after being flat in September. Income rose a modest 0.2% in October after a similar gain in the prior month. With income growth matching consumer spending, the saving rate was unchanged at 5.0%. (Reuters)

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Climbs In November. U.S. consumer sentiment rose in November to its highest level in more than seven years on improvements in the current economic condition, including lower gas prices and improving job prospects, a survey released on Wednesday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final November reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 88.8, its highest reading since July 2007 on a final basis. The reading was up from the 86.9 the month before but slightly below the preliminary reading of 89.4. Despite the uptick, it was below the median forecast of 90.0 among economists polled by Reuters. (Reuters)

U.S. Core Capital Goods Orders Fall For Second Straight Month In October. New orders for U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell for a second straight month in October, a sign that the economy lost some momentum early in the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, declined 1.3% last month. That followed a 1.3% fall in September. The drop in the so-called core capital goods orders suggested that a brisk pace of spending on equipment set in the third quarter ebbed early in the fourth quarter. (Reuters)

New Home Sales Rise In October, But September Revised Down. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rose for a third straight month in October, but a downward revision to the prior month's sales pace indicated the housing market recovery would remain gradual. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that sales gained 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000 units. September's sales pace was revised down to 455,000 units from 467,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales rising to a 472,000-unit pace last month. (Reuters)

U.S. Pending Home Sales Post Surprise Drop In October. Contracts to buy previously-owned U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in October, dropping to their lowest level in four months and casting a shadow over the housing market's recovery. The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, dropped 1.1% to 104.1. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast pending home sales rising 0.5% last month. These contracts become sales after a month or two. Contracts rose in the Northeast, but fell in the South, West and Midwest. (Reuters)

Europe

EU Unveils 315 Billion-Euro Plan To Unlock EIB Financing. The European Commission proposed a 315 billion-euro ($394 billion) investment plan based on guarantees and a small amount of seed money in order to offer European Investment Bank funds to a wider range of projects. The EIB will contribute 5 billion euros in start-up cash, accompanied by 16 billion euros in European Union guarantees. The start-up money, projected to have an impact of 15 times its size, will serve as capital for a new EIB unit that can share risk with private investors. (Bloomberg)

UK Business Investment In Surprise Fall. Business investment in the UK fell unexpectedly in the third quarter of the year, figures show, although consumer spending remained strong. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said business investment was 0.7% lower in the July-to-September period from the previous quarter. However, consumer spending grew by 0.8% in the third quarter. The ONS confirmed the UK economy grew 0.7% in the quarter, unchanged from its initial estimate a month ago. It also confirmed that the economy grew by 3% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Index Extends Losses On Weak U.S. Data. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index extended its losses Wednesday after a stream of weak economic data released over the past two days implied that U.S. economic growth won’t be as strong in the fourth quarter as it was in the third. The dollar index a measure of its strength against a basket of six rival currencies, was down 0.32% on the day to 87.6290, it’s lowest level since last Thursday. The euro which is the most heavily-weighted of the dollar index’s components, traded at $1.2514, compared with $1.2477 Tuesday. Elsewhere, the dollar traded at 117.71 yen, compared with ¥117.85 Tuesday. The British pound traded at $1.5800 Wednesday, its highest level in more than two weeks, boosted by the second estimate of U.K. gross domestic product growth for the third quarter, which was release by the U.K. Office for National Statistics Wednesday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Declines As OPEC Seen Holding Off From Production Cuts. Oil prices fell on Wednesday after OPEC increased signals that it would hold off making any major production cuts this week. Benchmark Brent futures settled down 58 cents at $77.75 a barrel. U.S. crude fell 40 cents to $73.69, having hit a low of $73.30. (Reuters)

Gold Rangebound Below $1,200/Oz As Asia Buying Evaporates. Gold eased slightly on Wednesday then steadied at just under $1,200 an ounce for another rangebound session as Asian overnight buying evaporated amid low volumes ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and a key Swiss vote on bullion holdings. At 3:25 p.m. EDT (2025 GMT), spot gold was at $1,198.40 an ounce, down 0.25% from Tuesday, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled at $1,196.6 an ounce, down 0.04%. Silver was down 0.6% at $16.62 an ounce, while platinum was up 0.58% at $1,233.5 an ounce and palladium was up 1.4% at $808.02 an ounce. (Reuters)

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