Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 28 Nov 2014

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Publish date: Fri, 28 Nov 2014, 10:11 AM

Global

WTO Clinches First Global Trade Deal In Its History. The World Trade Organization adopted the first worldwide trade reform in its history on Thursday, after years of stalemate, months of deadlock and a final day's delay following an eleventhhour objection. The agreement means the WTO will introduce new standards for customs checks and border procedures. Proponents say streamlining the flow of trade will add as much as $1 trillion and 21 million jobs to the world economy. (Reuters)

Asia

China Loosens Monetary Policy Further As PBOC Scraps Repo Sales. China’s central bank refrained from selling repurchase agreements for the first time since July, loosening monetary policy further as a report showed industrial companies’ profits fell by the most in two years. The People’s Bank of China didn’t conduct any open-market operations in today’s auction window, after cutting interest rates last week for the first time since 2012. It last suspended sales of repos, which drain funds from the banking system, in the week of July 21 as initial public offerings boosted cash demand. (Bloomberg)

Philippines Economy Slows Sharply In Third Quarter. Growth in the Philippine economy slowed sharply in the third quarter due to weaker growth in all sectors, the government said. The economy grew by 5.3% from July to September from a year ago, well below market expectations of a 6.6% rise. That compared to 6.4% growth in the previous three months from a year earlier. Its gross domestic product (GDP) fell to a three year low with the slowest pace of growth since 2011. Lower state spending was blamed for the slowing growth in the Southeast Asian country. (BBC)

North America

Canada Posts Narrowest Current Account Deficit Since 2008. Canada’s current account deficit was the narrowest since 2008 in the third quarter as non-energy exports increased and deficits in investment and tourism declined. The shortfall of C$8.40b (C$7.47b) from July to September, reported by Statistics Canada from Ottawa today, was narrower than all 13 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey, which had a median of C$11.2b. The agency also reduced its estimate of the second-quarter deficit to C$9.91b from C$11.9b. (Bloomberg)

Canada Payrolls Data Does Not Show Large Gain In September Jobs. Statistics Canada's payrolls report on Thursday showed a decline of 600 non-farm jobs in September, in stark contrast with the agency's earlier Labour Force Survey, which showed an estimated gain of 74,100 jobs in the month. The Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours is considered by some analysts to be more accurate than the Labour Force Survey, since part of its data comes from direct payrolls data provided by the Canada Revenue Agency. (Reuters)

Europe

Euro-Area Confidence Unexpectedly Increases As ECB Mulls Action. Economic sentiment in the euro area unexpectedly increased in November, a sign the European Central Bank’s bid to boost growth and inflation is starting to hit home with companies and consumers. An index of executive and household confidence rose to 100.8 from 100.7 in October, the highest since July, the European Commission in Brussels said today. Economists forecast a decline to 100.3, according to the median of 28 estimate in a Bloomberg survey. (Bloomberg)

Lending To Euro Zone Private Sector Shrinks Again October: ECB. Lending to euro zone households and firms contracted further in October, keeping up pressure on the European Central Bank to deliver further stimulus measures to buoy the lackluster 18-country economy. ECB figures released on Thursday showed that in October, loans to the private sector contracted by 1.1% from the same month a year earlier, after a contraction of 1.2% in September. (Reuters)

German Unemployment Rate Falls To A Record Low. Germany's unemployment rate has hit a record low, but slower inflation has raised concerns over deflation. The Federal Statistical Office revised October's unemployment number from 6.7% to 6.6%, November's figure was also 6.6%. Both figures were adjusted for seasonal variation. Meanwhile inflation fell to its lowest rate in nearly five years in November. Official figures showed inflation dropped to 0.5% in November from 0.7% in October. The fall in the number of unemployed was larger than analysts' expectations, down 14,000 to 2.872 million, the Federal Labour Office said. (BBC)

French Jobless Total Hits New Record In October: Government. More people were unemployed in France in October than ever before, data showed on Thursday, highlighting continued weak activity in the euro zone's second-largest economy. The Labour Ministry said the jobless total in mainland France rose by 28,400 to 3,460,900, a 0.8% increase over one month and 5.5% over one year. The jobless increase in October was the biggest monthly rise since February, when the total rose by 31,500. It came after a rise in September which wiped out a slight fall in unemployment in August. (Reuters)

Falling Spanish Prices Add To Euro Zone Deflation Pressure. Spanish consumer prices dropped for the fifth month running in November, adding pressure on stubbornly low inflation in the euro zone as a whole. In Spain, national consumer prices fell 0.4% year-on-year in November, data from the National Statistic Institute (INE) showed on Thursday, the sharpest fall since August. Dropping oil prices are largely behind the run of declines, though core inflation, which strips out volatile elements such as energy and food, also fell in October for the second month in a row. (Reuters)

Draghi Pledges Open Mind On Asset Buying As Price Pressures Wane. Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank is open to buying a wide variety of assets for further stimulus as German and Spanish inflation data highlighted the struggle to revive the euro-area economy. If current measures aren’t enough, the Governing Council is “unanimous in its commitment to use other unconventional instruments,” the ECB president said at the University of Helsinki today. “What assets? All range of assets. At this point of the discussion, the discussion is quite open. It’s been going on in several meetings.” (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Firms As Canadian, Norwegian Currencies Slide On Oil. The U.S. dollar held firm early on Friday, having made notable gains versus the Canadian dollar and Norwegian crown in an otherwise lacklustre market because of a holiday in the United States. The U.S. dollar rallied to 6.9438 crowns, reaching a high not seen in over five years. It was last at 6.9240. It raced to a one-week high against its Canadian counterpart at C1.1355, before steadying at C$1.1330. The euro jumped to 8.6675 crowns, coming within a whisker of a five-year high of 8.6790 set earlier this month. The greenback was barely changed on the yen and a touch firmer against the euro. It bought 117.72 yen, while the euro drifted down to $1.2467 from $1.2524. (Reuters)

Commodities

Oil Prices Dive After OPEC Decides Against Output Cut. Brent crude oil plunged as much as $6.50 a barrel on Thursday, and U.S. crude fell by nearly as much, posting the steepest one-day falls since 2011, after OPEC decided against cutting output despite a huge oversupply in world markets. Benchmark Brent futures settled at $72.58 a barrel, down $5.17, after hitting a four-year low of $71.25 earlier in the session. U.S. crude was last down $4.64 at $69.05 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Eases As Dollar Strengthens, Oil Prices Slide. Gold eased on Thursday, hurt by a sharp drop in oil prices, strength in the dollar and fresh outflows from bullion-backed funds, with traders cautious ahead of this weekend's Swiss referendum on central bank bullion assets. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,193.85 an ounce at 1549 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down $3.80 an ounce at $1,192.80. Among other precious metals, silver was down 1% at $16.30 an ounce, platinum was down 0.6% at $1,215.24 an ounce and palladium was up 0.5% at $803.98 an ounce. (Reuters)

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