Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 10 Dec 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 10 Dec 2014, 09:28 AM

Global

Reducing Inequality Would Boost Economic Growth: OECD. Moves by national governments to reduce inequality between their rich and poor citizens would help to lift economic growth, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Tuesday. "The single biggest impact on growth is the widening gap between the lower middle class and poor households compared to the rest of society," it wrote in a report based on 30 years of harmonized data from developed and highly developed countries. "It follows that policies to reduce income inequalities should not only be pursued to improve social outcomes but also to sustain long-term growth." The OECD said that, over the past two decades up to the global slowdown of 2009, the cumulative growth rate would have been 6-9%age points higher in Italy, Britain and the United States had income disparities there not widened. Conversely, greater levels of equality were helping boost Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in Spain, France and Ireland before the crisis. In most developed nations the gap between rich and poor reached its highest level in 30 years in 2014, with the top 10% of the population earning 9.5 times the income of the poorest 10%, the OECD wrote. (Reuters)

USA

Job Openings Point To Sustained U.S. Payroll Gains. The U.S. labor market continued to show traction in October as job openings held near the highest level in almost 14 years and the number of people quitting and getting hired remained elevated. The number of positions waiting to be filled rose by 149,000 to 4.83 million, the second-highest level since January 2001, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. (Bloomberg)

Solid U.S. Wholesale Inventories Data Seen Boosting Growth. U.S. wholesale inventories rose more than expected in October, prompting some economists to raise their growth forecasts for the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday wholesale inventories increased 0.4%, despite an energy price-related decline in the value of petroleum stocks. September's wholesale stocks were revised up to show a 0.4% gain. (Reuters)

U.S. Small Business Confidence Jumps To Near Eight-Year High. U.S. small business optimism surged in November to its highest level in nearly eight years, the latest indication the economy is positioned for faster growth in 2015. The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index increased 2.0 points to 98.1 last month, the highest reading since February 2007. Owners were very bullish about business conditions over the next six months. They were also upbeat about sales and earnings, but continued to hold back on capital spending and hiring. (Reuters)

Europe

German Imports Fall At Fastest Pace In Almost Two Years. German imports posted their steepest drop in almost two years in October after a strong rise the previous month, while exports also fell, but economists remained upbeat about the prospects for Europe's largest economy. Seasonally-adjusted data from the Federal Statistics Office showed imports declining by 3.1% on the month, undershooting by far a consensus forecast for a 1.5% decrease. It was the sharpest fall since November 2012. Exports also dropped by 0.5% on the month, though that was a better reading than the 1.5% decline that a Reuters poll had forecast. (Reuters)

German Labor Costs Increase At Sharpest Rate Since Early 2013. German labor costs rose in the third quarter at their sharpest rate since the start of 2013, data showed on Tuesday, in a likely boon to euro zone neighbors who should find this makes their goods more competitive. The data from the federal statistics office showed the cost of work in Germany – made up of gross earnings and non-wage labor costs - rose by 2.3% adjusted for calendar effects between July and September from the same period a year earlier. Employers spent 2.0% more on gross earnings and they also had to pay 3.4% more in non-wage labor costs. (Reuters)

UK Manufacturing Output Falls 0.7% In October. UK manufacturing output unexpectedly fell 0.7% in October, down from revised growth of 0.7% in September, according to official figures. Economists had forecast a 0.2% increase in industrial and manufacturing output in October. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said output was hit by a sharp fall in computer and electronics manufacturing. Compared with a year earlier, output from manufacturing was up 1.7%. The monthly decline, which was the biggest since May, was hit by a 4.5% fall in computer, electronic and optical products. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Stumbles Against G-4 Rivals, Rises Against Ruble. The U.S. dollar weakened against its major rivals Tuesday, despite more indicators of weak economic growth outside the U.S., as a selloff in global equities forced investors to book profits elsewhere. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index a measure of the dollar’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six rival currencies, was down 0.34% to 88.7410. The dollar traded at 6.18 yuan, compared to 6.17 yuan Monday. The yuan’s exchange rate remains controlled within a trading band set daily by the People’s Bank of China. In other Asian currencies,

Global

Reducing Inequality Would Boost Economic Growth: OECD. Moves by national governments to reduce inequality between their rich and poor citizens would help to lift economic growth, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Tuesday. "The single biggest impact on growth is the widening gap between the lower middle class and poor households compared to the rest of society," it wrote in a report based on 30 years of harmonized data from developed and highly developed countries. "It follows that policies to reduce income inequalities should not only be pursued to improve social outcomes but also to sustain long-term growth." The OECD said that, over the past two decades up to the global slowdown of 2009, the cumulative growth rate would have been 6-9%age points higher in Italy, Britain and the United States had income disparities there not widened. Conversely, greater levels of equality were helping boost Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in Spain, France and Ireland before the crisis. In most developed nations the gap between rich and poor reached its highest level in 30 years in 2014, with the top 10% of the population earning 9.5 times the income of the poorest 10%, the OECD wrote. (Reuters)

USA

Job Openings Point To Sustained U.S. Payroll Gains. The U.S. labor market continued to show traction in October as job openings held near the highest level in almost 14 years and the number of people quitting and getting hired remained elevated. The number of positions waiting to be filled rose by 149,000 to 4.83 million, the second-highest level since January 2001, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. (Bloomberg)

Solid U.S. Wholesale Inventories Data Seen Boosting Growth. U.S. wholesale inventories rose more than expected in October, prompting some economists to raise their growth forecasts for the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday wholesale inventories increased 0.4%, despite an energy price-related decline in the value of petroleum stocks. September's wholesale stocks were revised up to show a 0.4% gain. (Reuters)

U.S. Small Business Confidence Jumps To Near Eight-Year High. U.S. small business optimism surged in November to its highest level in nearly eight years, the latest indication the economy is positioned for faster growth in 2015. The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index increased 2.0 points to 98.1 last month, the highest reading since February 2007. Owners were very bullish about business conditions over the next six months. They were also upbeat about sales and earnings, but continued to hold back on capital spending and hiring. (Reuters)

Europe

German Imports Fall At Fastest Pace In Almost Two Years. German imports posted their steepest drop in almost two years in October after a strong rise the previous month, while exports also fell, but economists remained upbeat about the prospects for Europe's largest economy. Seasonally-adjusted data from the Federal Statistics Office showed imports declining by 3.1% on the month, undershooting by far a consensus forecast for a 1.5% decrease. It was the sharpest fall since November 2012. Exports also dropped by 0.5% on the month, though that was a better reading than the 1.5% decline that a Reuters poll had forecast. (Reuters)

German Labor Costs Increase At Sharpest Rate Since Early 2013. German labor costs rose in the third quarter at their sharpest rate since the start of 2013, data showed on Tuesday, in a likely boon to euro zone neighbors who should find this makes their goods more competitive. The data from the federal statistics office showed the cost of work in Germany – made up of gross earnings and non-wage labor costs - rose by 2.3% adjusted for calendar effects between July and September from the same period a year earlier. Employers spent 2.0% more on gross earnings and they also had to pay 3.4% more in non-wage labor costs. (Reuters)

UK Manufacturing Output Falls 0.7% In October. UK manufacturing output unexpectedly fell 0.7% in October, down from revised growth of 0.7% in September, according to official figures. Economists had forecast a 0.2% increase in industrial and manufacturing output in October. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said output was hit by a sharp fall in computer and electronics manufacturing. Compared with a year earlier, output from manufacturing was up 1.7%. The monthly decline, which was the biggest since May, was hit by a 4.5% fall in computer, electronic and optical products. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Stumbles Against G-4 Rivals, Rises Against Ruble. The U.S. dollar weakened against its major rivals Tuesday, despite more indicators of weak economic growth outside the U.S., as a selloff in global equities forced investors to book profits elsewhere. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index a measure of the dollar’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six rival currencies, was down 0.34% to 88.7410. The dollar traded at 6.18 yuan, compared to 6.17 yuan Monday. The yuan’s exchange rate remains controlled within a trading band set daily by the People’s Bank of China. In other Asian currencies,

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