Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 11 Dec 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 11 Dec 2014, 09:31 AM

Asia

Japan Business Mood Sours As Economy Struggles With Recession. Big Japanese manufacturers grew less optimistic in October-December and foresee conditions worsening in the following quarter, a government survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting that the economy's recovery from recession will be slow. The joint quarterly poll by the Ministry of Finance and the Cabinet Office also indicates that the central bank's key tankan survey due to be released on Dec. 15 may show little improvement in business sentiment in the final three months of this year. The poll showed that companies are becoming less positive on business investment, not a good sign for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's pro-growth policies. (Reuters)

Japan Consumer Mood Worsens For Fourth Straight Month In November. Japanese consumer confidence in November worsened for a fourth straight month, a Cabinet Office survey showed on Wednesday, showing the April sales tax hike is continuing to weigh on sentiment. The Cabinet Office cut its view on the consumer confidence index, saying it is showing weak movement. The survey's sentiment index for general households, which includes views on incomes and jobs, was at 37.7 in November, the lowest since April. (Reuters)

Japan Wholesale Prices Show First Fall In Nearly Two Years. Japan's wholesale prices marked their first annual fall in nearly two years in November due largely to slumping oil prices, data showed on Wednesday, complicating the central bank's task of meeting an ambitious inflation target. The corporate goods price index, which measures the price companies charge each other for goods and services, rose 2.7% in November from a year earlier, matching a median market forecast, Bank of Japan data showed. That was the fifth straight month of slowdown as falling commodity prices, particularly the costs of gasoline and oil, offset rises in import costs from a weak yen. (Reuters)

China Inflation Eases To Five-Year Low. Consumer prices in China eased to a five-year low in November, suggesting continued weakness in the Asian economic giant. The inflation rate fell to 1.4% in November from 1.6% in October, which is the lowest since November 2009. The reading was also below market expectations of a 1.6% rise. Producer prices also fell more than forecast, down 2.7% from a year ago - marking a 33rd consecutive monthly decline. Economists had predicted a fall of 2.4% after a drop of 2.2% in the previous month as a cooling property market led to slowing demand for industrial goods. (BBC)

Philippines Congress Approves 15 Pct Increase In 2015 National Budget. A joint congressional panel approved a 15% increase in Philippine government's national budget next year to boost infrastructure spending, including in typhoon-hit regions, encourage economic activity and create jobs. The 2015 budget will boost spending to 2.6 trillion pesos ($58.59b) from a planned 2.26 trillion pesos this year, Francis Escudero, head of the Senate finance panel said. The approval will pave the way for the signing of the budget bill into law by President Benigno Aquino this month. (Reuters)

USA

Budget Deficit In U.S. Narrows As Employment Growth Accelerates. The budget deficit in the U.S narrowed more than economists projected in November from a year earlier, Treasury Department figures showed, as rising employment helped boost receipts and spending fell. Outlays exceeded receipts by $56.8b last month, compared with a $135.2b shortfall a year earlier, the department said in a report released in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 21 economists was for a $64b deficit. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise In Latest Week: MBA. Applications for U.S. home mortgages rose last week as both purchase and refinancing applications increased, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 7.3% in the week ended Dec. 5. The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications rose 13.2%, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, rose 1.3%. (Reuters)

Europe

UK Trade Deficit Narrows To Seven-Month Low In October. The difference between the amount the UK imports and exports narrowed to a seven-month low in October, official data shows. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the UK's trade deficit in goods and services stood at £2bn in October, compared with £2.8bn in September. The narrowing of the gap was driven mainly by a drop in oil imports. A rise in exports, helped by sales of silver to India, also had an impact. The goods trade deficit for October also shrank to £9.6bn from £10.5bn, again marking its lowest level for seven months, but still higher than the £9.5bn expected by economists polled by Reuters. (BBC)

BOE's Carney Says Rates Will Rise Despite Inflation Dip. British interest rates will have to rise despite an expected dip in inflation but the exact timing of the hike is uncertain and any moves are likely to be gradual, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said in an interview published on Wednesday. Carney, speaking to the Birmingham Post, stuck close to the message that he gave last month alongside updated economic forecasts and said inflation was still expected to dip below 1% in the coming months before starting to accelerate. Economists polled by Reuters do not expect the BoE to raise rates until the third quarter of next year as a slowdown in growth in the euro zone and big falls in oil prices reduce short-term price pressures. (Reuters)

Currencies

U.S. Dollar Slide Persists For Third Day. The U.S. dollar fell against the yen for a third straight session on Wednesday as risk appetite diminished amid worries about Greece and the outlook for China, the world's second-largest economy. In late trading, the dollar fell 0.8% to 118.70 yen. At one point on Tuesday, it dropped more than two% to 117.90 in a sharp turnaround from the seven-year peak of 121.86 set on Monday. The euro was up 0.5% at $1.2433, still below a high of $1.2447 struck on Tuesday. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.4% at 88.312, still not far from a five-year high just below 89 touched last Monday. (Reuters)

Commodities

Oil Falls Below $66 On Ample Supply, Rising Stocks. Brent crude oil slipped below $66 a barrel on Wednesday, just above a five-year low, on mounting signs of oversupply and lackluster demand as global economic growth falters. Brent futures for January fell to a low of $65.68 a barrel, down $1.16, before recovering slightly to trade around $65.90 by 0850 GMT (03:50 a.m. EST). The contract reached $65.29 on Tuesday, its lowest since September 2009. U.S. crude futures CLc1 were down $1 at $62.82 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Falls From 7-Week High, Turns Down As Oil Prices Sink. Gold dropped a shade on pressure from tumbling oil prices on Wednesday, after nudging up to a seven-week high as equity markets surrendered earlier gains to turn lower and the dollar extended losses versus a basket of currencies. Spot gold eased 0.2% to $1,228.00 an ounce by 3:39 p.m. EST (2039 GMT). Platinum was down 0.3% to $1,241.95 an ounce. Silver was up 0.2% at $17.08 an ounce, and palladium was up 0.8% to $814.22 an ounce. (Reuters)

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