Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 23 Dec 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 23 Dec 2014, 09:36 AM

Malaysia

· Higher Vehicle Sales In Nov. Sales of passenger and commercial vehicles in November increased to 55,313 units from 52,252 units, in the same period last year, said the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA). In a statement yesterday, the association said the passenger vehicle segment recorded higher sales of 48,622 units during the month under review, compared with 45,749 units in the corresponding month last year. “Sales of commercial vehicles rose to 6,691 units in November from 6,503 units registered in the same period last year,” it said. MAA said November sales volume was up 5.9%, or 3,061 units, higher than similar period last year. It said sales volume in November was 2.1%, or 1,126 units, higher than October due to year-end promotional campaigns and new model launches. (NST)

Asia

· South Korea Cuts 2015 Growth Forecast, Warns On External Risks. South Korea lowered its growth forecast and said it will revise capital controls to guard against higher U.S. interest rates and other external risks to Asia’s fourth-biggest economy. The economy will expand 3.8% next year, less than a July estimate of 4%, the finance ministry said, citing weaker-than-expected domestic demand. The ministry may revise rules in 2015 on currency forwards and foreign currency liabilities to prevent abrupt outflows, a statement showed. (Bloomberg)

Americas

· U.S. Existing Home Sales Hit Six-Month Low, Inventories Low. U.S. home resales tumbled to a six-month low in November after two straight months of strong increases, underscoring the uneven nature of the housing market recovery. The National Association of Realtors said on Monday existing home sales dropped 6.1% to an annual rate of 4.93 million units, the lowest level since May. November's decline exceeded Wall Street's expectations for only a drop to a 5.20-million unit pace. (Reuters)

· Canada Budget Deficit Rises In October On Tax Cuts. Canada's budget deficit rose to C$3.21b ($2.75b) in October from C$2.48b a year ago because of tax benefits announced by the Conservative government, the finance department said on Monday. Absent this adjustment, the deficit would have been C$1.6b, it said. The government announced on Oct. 30 it would allow parents with children 18 and under to split a portion of their income to take advantage of lower tax brackets. For the fiscal year to date, April through October, the deficit fell to C$3.95b from C$12.83b in the same period in 2013. (Reuters)

Europe

· Russian Central Bank Sets Limit On Overnight Forex Swap Operations At $10b For Dec. 22. The Russian central bank said on Monday it had set a limit for its overnight forex swap operations at $10b for Dec. 22 to alleviate a shortage of rubles in the money market. The bank said a week ago that it would extend the limit on forex swap operations to an equivalent of $2b a day for Dec. 15-21, but on Friday it said it was increasing that limit to $10b. (Reuters)

· Euro Zone Consumer Confidence Rises In December. Euro zone consumer confidence edged 0.6 points higher in December, a flash estimate from the European Commission showed on Monday. The Commission said that consumer confidence in the 18 countries using the euro rose to minus 10.9 from a revised minus 11.5 in November. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted an average value of minus 11.0. (Reuters)

· Europe’s Consumers Spending As Oil Prices Drop. Euro-area households are already reaping the benefits of cheaper oil, though probably too late to stop the European Central Bank adding more stimulus. Euro-area inflation was 0.3% in November, matching a five-year low and compared with a goal of just under 2%. ECB staffs are preparing an expanded asset-purchase program, which would probably include government bonds, for consideration at the next monetary policy meeting on Jan. 22. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

· Dollar Rises Against Canadian Dollar, Norwegian Krone As Oil Falls. The dollar moved higher against the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone as West Texas Intermediate crude futures gave up early Monday gains. The dollar rose to 1.165 Canadian dollars, its highest level since last Wednesday. The buck traded around 1.16 loonies Friday. The dollar rose to 7.42 krone, its highest level since last Wednesday. It traded at 7.35 on Friday. The ruble continued its recovery against the dollar, rising to 55.84 per dollar, compared with 59.46 late on Friday, although it is still down more than 40% against the dollar this year. The dollar rose to 120 yen, its highest level in more than two weeks, benefiting from the Federal Reserve’s signal that it will raise interest rates in 2015. It traded at ¥119.52 Friday. After trading higher against the dollar for most of the North American trading day, the euro traded flat at $1.222. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, was up 0.17% to 89.7490. (Marketwatch)

Commodities

· Oil Slides As Saudi Naimi Tells Market To Forget OPEC Cuts. Oil prices resumed their downward march on Monday, doubling back on the biggest one-day gain in over two years, after Saudi Arabia's powerful oil minister said OPEC would not cut production at any price. U.S. crude's front-month contract settled down $1.87, or 3.3%, at $55.26 a barrel. It fell $2 earlier to a session low at $55.13. On Friday, U.S. crude finished up nearly 5%, the largest gain since August 2012, as some traders took profits on short positions after prices hit five-year lows. Brent closed down $1.27, or 2%, at $60.11 a barrel after a session bottom of $59.84. (Reuters)

· Gold And Silver Down As Oil Retreats, Hit Sell-Stops. Gold dropped nearly 2% and silver slid 3% on Monday, triggering automatic sell orders in thin pre-holiday dealings as oil prices eased back toward $55 per barrel. Spot gold was down 1.8% at $1,174.21 an ounce at 2:24 p.m. EST (1924 GMT). It lost about 2% last week on a strong dollar and expectations of rising U.S. interest rates. Silver was down 2.5% at $15.63 an ounce, after falling more than 3% to a session low at $15.49. Among other precious metals, platinum was down 1.4% at $1,177.25 an ounce and palladium gained 0.7% to $807.60 an ounce. (Reuters)

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