Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 24 Dec 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 24 Dec 2014, 09:42 AM

Malaysia

· Foreign Reserves Lower In First Half Of Dec. Malaysia’s foreign reserves dropped RM17.6bil in the first half of December, reflecting the heavy outflow of funds from the country’s capital markets during the period. Bank Negara said international reserves stood at RM394.1b as at Dec 15, compared with RM411.7b as at end-November. The central bank, in a statement yesterday, said the reserves were sufficient to finance 7.9 months of retained imports and were 1.1 times the short-term external debt. The yield on the 10-year Malaysian Government Securities spiked up to a high of 4.292% on Dec 15 from 3.497% on Nov 28. A bond’s yield increases as its price declines amid a sell-off. The ringgit too was under pressure, falling to a low of 3.497 against the US dollar. (The Star)

South East Asia

· S’pore Nov CPI Falls First Time In 5 Years. Singapore’s headline consumer price index (CPI) for November declined from a year earlier for the first time in nearly five years, but authorities expect wage pressures to persist and core inflation to average two to three% next year. Economists said the data is unlikely to prompt the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to ease monetary policy at its April policy review, given that the year-on-year fall in CPI was not caused by any sharp dropoff in demand. The all-items CPI fell 0.3% last month from a year earlier, the first annual decline since December 2009, when it contracted 0.5%. The November decline matched Reuters’ forecast. (Reuters)

North America

· U.S. New Home Sales Fall For Second Straight Month In November. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell for a second straight month in November, a sign that the housing market recovery remains fragile. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that sales declined 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 438,000 units. October's sales pace was revised down to 445,000 units from 458,000 units. (Reuters)

· U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rises To Best Since 2007. U.S. consumer sentiment jumped in December to its highest level in nearly eight years on cheaper gasoline and better job and wage prospects, a survey released on Tuesday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final December reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 93.6, its best showing on a final basis since January 2007 and the latest in a string of increases since August. The reading was up from 88.8 the month before but under the preliminary reading of 93.8. It was above the median forecast of 93.5 among economists polled by Reuters. (Reuters)

· U.S. Business Spending Plans Gauge Flat In November. A gauge of business investment plans was unexpectedly flat in November, suggesting a slowdown in economic growth after a brisk expansion over the last two quarters. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, was unchanged after a downwardly revised 1.9% drop in October. Shipments of core capital goods, which are used to calculate equipment spending in the government's gross domestic product measurement, rose 0.2% last month after slipping 0.9% in October. (Reuters)

· Economy Grows Most Since ’03 On U.S. Consumer-Spending Gains. The U.S. economy roared into overdrive in the third quarter as consumer and business spending fueled the biggest expansion in more than a decade. Gross domestic product grew at a 5% annual rate from July through September, the biggest advance since the third quarter of 2003 and up from a previously estimated 3.9%, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed today inWashington. The median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a 4.3% increase in GDP. (Bloomberg)

· Surprise Canada GDP Gain In October Sets Up Solid Quarter. The Canadian economy showed surprising strength in October, growing by 0.3% after a 0.4% gain in September, due in part to an unexpected surge in manufacturing, according to Statistics Canada data released on Tuesday. Economists now expect annualized fourth-quarter growth to come in close to, or above, the Bank of Canada's 2.5% forecast, which would be high enough to eat into some of the economy's spare capacity. Previous predictions had been as low as 2%. (Reuters)

Europe

· UK Economic Growth Revised Down. The UK economy has grown more slowly in the past year than previously thought, official figures indicate. Revised figures show gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of this year was 2.6% higher than in the same period in 2013, down from an earlier estimate of 3%. Also, the UK's current account deficit widened in the third quarter to £27b. That put the difference between the country's export and import of goods and services at a record 6% of GDP. (BBC)

· Russia Sets Limits On Exporters' Net Forex Assets. The Russian government told large state exporting companies on Tuesday that by March 1 they must bring their net foreign exchange assets back to the levels of Oct. 1. The government said in a statement on its website that the instructions had been given to gas firm Gazprom, oil firm Rosneft, diamond miners Alrosa and Kristall, and oil company Zarubezhneft. "These public companies will be required to submit a weekly report to the Central Bank of Russia on the amount of their net foreign exchange assets," the government said. (Reuters)

Currencies

· Dollar Jumps After Stellar U.S. GDP Data. The dollar moved sharply higher against most major currencies on Tuesday after data showed the U.S. economy fared much better than previously expected in the third quarter. The WSJ Dollar Index jumped 0.41% to 82.90, after trading with a loss earlier in the day. The ICE dollar index climbed 0.32% to 90.06. Against the yen the dollar rose to ¥120.76, up from ¥120.04 late Monday. In other currencies, the euro traded at $1.2175, down from $1.2232 late Monday. Elsewhere, the Russian ruble rose for a fifth straight day, as Russia’s central bank and politicians reportedly asked big exporters to sell foreign reserves to protect the currency. The ruble improved to trade around 54.64 to the dollar, compared with 55.4182 late on Monday. The pound exchanged hands at $1.5509, down from $1.5592 on Monday, after a data revision indicated the U.K. economy is not growing as fast as thought. (Marketwatch)

Commodities

· Oil Up On Stronger-Than-Expected U.S. GDP Growth Data. Oil rose by more than $2 a barrel on Tuesday, rallying for a second time in three days, after data showing the fastest rate of U.S. economic growth in 11 years bolstered expectations for crude demand. Crude markets pared gains after preliminary data from industry group American Petroleum Institute showed a build of more than 5 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles last week versus expectations for a drop. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release official inventory data at 10:30 a.m. ET (1530 GMT) on Wednesday. Brent settled up $1.58 at $61.69 a barrel, continuing its rise in post settlement to $62.14. U.S. crude finished the session up $1.86 at $57.12, and rose thereafter to as high as $57.56. (Reuters)

· Gold Pares Gains After U.S. Data, Vulnerable To More Losses. Gold was little changed on Tuesday, paring earlier gains after strong U.S. growth data lifted the dollar, and was looking vulnerable to more losses as appetite for risk boosted equities. The U.S. economy grew at a 5% clip in the third quarter, its quickest pace in 11 years and the strongest sign yet that growth has decisively shifted into higher gear. Spot gold was up 0.02% at $1,174.90 an ounce by 2:39 p.m. EST (1939 GMT) after rising to a session high of $1,185. It tumbled nearly 2% on Monday to its lowest since Dec. 1 at $1,170.17. Silver added 0.5% to $15.70 an ounce after falling 2.6% to a three-week low of $15.49 on Monday. Platinum was up 1% to $1,190.00 an ounce, and palladium gained 0.1% to $809.00 an ounce. (Reuters)

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