Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 30 Dec 2014

kiasutrader
Publish date: Tue, 30 Dec 2014, 09:32 AM

Malaysia

· Rubber Market Ends Higher For Third Consecutive Day. The Malaysian rubber market extended last week’s gain to close higher for the third consecutive day today tracking Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), a dealer said. He said the local rubber market tracked uptrend in the regional futures market despite a stronger ringgit, taking cues from higher rubber futures prices on the TOCOM, driven by the weakness in yen. At noon, the Malaysian Rubber Board’s official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 increased 1.5 sen to 508.5 sen a kg, while latex-in-bulk rose two sen to 373 sen a kg. The unofficial closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 increased two sen to 509 sen a kg while latex-in-bulk gained one sen to 373 sen a kg. (Bernama)

· Malaysian Palm Oil Price at 7-week High, Floods Curb Supplies. Malaysian palm oil rose for an eighth consecutive session on Monday to its highest since Nov. 12 as floods in the country's key producing states reduced supplies of the world's most traded vegetable oil. Severe monsoon flooding in Malaysia that has forced more than a hundred thousand people to evacuate is likely to cause a bigger-than-expected disruption to crude palm oil production, planters and traders said. By Monday's close the benchmark March contract had jumped 1.6% to RM2,286 ($654) per tonne, after hitting RM2,308, the benchmark's highest since Nov. 4. Traded volume stood at 39,627 lots of 25 tonnes, above the daily average of around 35,000 lots traded. Floods in key palm-growing areas would hinder harvesting, transportation and crushing of fresh palm fruit, leading to tighter supplies in December and early 2015. (Reuters)

Asia

· The 94% Plunge That Shows Abenomics Losing Global Investors. Foreign investors have had just about enough of Abenomics. After pumping record amounts of cash into Japanese shares last year, they’ve hardly added to holdings in 2014. Inflows are down 94% this year to 898b yen ($7.5b), on pace for the smallest annual amount since the 2008 global financial crisis. The month of April 2013 alone registered almost three times as much foreign investment in the stock market as all of 2014. These figures provide the clearest look at how global investors have become disillusioned with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe after he pushed through a tax increase in April that sent Japan into recession. Fund managers from Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. to MV Financial say to lure investors back, Abe needs to move beyond short-term stimulus and start enacting the structural changes he laid out in his initial plan, dubbed Abenomics, to end Japan’s two-decade economic malaise. (Bloomberg)

Europe

· Argentine Economy Contracts First Time Since 2012 On Default. Argentina’s economy contracted more than forecast in the third quarter after the South American nation defaulted on its debt for the second time in 13 years, forcing the government to crimp imports amid a shortage of dollars. Gross domestic product shrank 0.8% from the year-earlier period, the national statistics agency reported today. The median estimate of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a decline of 0.6%, after growth stalled in the previous three months. (Bloomberg)

· Russia Shows First Sign Of Recession As GDP Contracts. The Russian economy contracted by 0.5% in November, the first fall in national output - Gross Domestic Product - since October 2009, official figures show. The Russian government expects a 0.8% decline in GDP next year, compared with 0.6% GDP growth in 2014 as a whole. The rouble fell to a rate of 57 to the dollar on Monday, a fall of more than 6%, after some gains last week. Russia's economy, heavily reliant on energy exports, has been hit by the oil price slump and Western sanctions. (BBC)

Currencies

· Dollar Hits Fresh Highs In Thin Trade On Year-End Bets. The U.S. dollar hit fresh highs against the euro not touched in nearly 29 months on Monday as traders expecting tighter monetary policy in the United States compared to other economies saw little reason to halt this year's rally in the greenback. The euro fell to $1.2142 against the dollar, its lowest level in nearly 29 months, on the continued belief that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates as soon as next year while other economies are putting looser policies into effect. The euro was last down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2151. The dollar was last up 0.22% against the yen at 120.67 yen. The dollar was up 0.21% against the Swiss franc at 0.9898 franc. The dollar hit a 29-month high against the franc of 0.9907 franc. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last up 0.20% at 90.21 after hitting a fresh, nearly nine-year high of 90.265. (Reuters)

Commodities

· Gold, Silver Fall As U.S. Dollar Continues Climb. Gold fell on Monday, giving back most of the previous session's sharp short-covering gains, and silver fell also, as a strong U.S. dollar and bearish chart signals offset uncertainty over the prospect of fresh elections in Greece. Spot gold was down 1.1% at $1,181.16 an ounce by 2:09 p.m. EST (1909 GMT), following a 1.8-percent gain on Friday. Silver was down 1.7% at $15.74 an ounce, reversing earlier gains and extending losses after breaking through support at $16. Spot platinum was down 1.2% at $1,196.75 an ounce and palladium was 0.9% lower, at $807.00 an ounce. (Reuters)

· Oil Prices Fall More Than $1, Dropping To Five-Year Lows. Crude oil prices on tumbled on Monday, with global grades settling down more than $1 a barrel after an early rally fizzled and prices fell to their lowest levels since May 2009. News of further damage Libya's oil infrastructure prompted the early rally that was quickly erased as pervasive fears of global oversupply trumped concerns about output curtailment from the OPEC producer. Global benchmark Brent crude settled down $1.57 at $57.88. U.S. crude settled down $1.12 at $53.61 a barrel, following Brent downward. (Reuters)

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