Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 31 Dec 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 31 Dec 2014, 09:40 AM

Malaysia

· Palm Oil Gains Set For Longest Run. Palm oil climbed for a ninth day to head for the longest run of gains in more than a decade as flooding in Malaysia hurt prospects for harvesting, compounding a seasonal slowdown in production in the largest grower after Indonesia. The contract for March delivery rose as much as 0.8% to RM2,305 a tonne on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives and traded at RM2,299 at 11.48am, here, yesterday. A ninth day of rising prices would be the longest run since June 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Palm oil climbed to 2,308 on Monday, the highest level since November 4. (Bloomberg)

· Rubber Market Extends Gains. The Malaysian rubber market extended its gain to close higher for the fourth consecutive day yesterday in tandem with the regional futures market, a dealer said. He said apart from the weakness in ringgit, the local rubber market had witnessed an increase in prices in response to a statement by International Rubber Consortium (IRCo) on the possible cut in supply. IRco’s chief executive Yium Tavarolit, in a statement said rubber production in Thailand and Malaysia would fall by at least 100,000 tonnes a month if the floods persisted. (Bernama)

· Klibor Futures Untraded. The three-month Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate (Klibor) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed untraded yesterday. Spot month January 2015, February 2015, March 2015 and June 2015 remained pegged at 96.12, 96.13, 96.16 and 96.15, respectively. Open interest stood at 1,170 contracts. At the 11am fixing, the underlying three-month KLIBOR stood at 3.86%. (Bernama)

Asia

· Japan's Ruling Coalition Approves Corporate Tax Cuts To Spur Growth. Japan's ruling coalition has approved a tax reform plan that will cut corporate taxes from April and pledges further reductions in coming years in a bid by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to boost profitability and bolster economic growth. The plan approved by Abe's Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito on Tuesday would cut the overall effective corporate tax rate by 2.51%age points to 32.1% from April and then to 31.3% the following year. Abe pledged in June to lower the corporate tax rate to below 30% over the coming years to help pull Japan out of nearly two decades of deflation. Earlier this year, he eliminated a levy on companies imposed in 2012 to help fund disaster relief. (Reuters)

· China To Relax Restrictions On Banks' Yuan Trading, Adding Transparency. China will relax restrictions on banks' yuan trading starting in 2015, in a small but significant move towards relaxing its capital controls. The changes will replace daily caps on banks' foreign exchange positions with weekly limits, and for the first time establish unified standards for total foreign exchange positions that banks can hold. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) published a set of new rules on Tuesday to simplify 14 sets of related regulations and add new provisions liberalizing banks' forex trading practices. (Reuters)

· India Ends Tax Breaks For Carmakers As Finances Strain. India’s Finance Minister Arun Jaitley decided against extending a tax break benefiting the local automobile industry in a bid to bolster revenue and narrow the government’s budget deficit. An excise duty cut, announced by his predecessor P. Chidambaram in February and extended in June by Jaitley for six months through December, won’t be renewed, a finance ministry official told reporters in New Delhi, asking not to be identified citing rules. The tax break was introduced after car sales slumped amid an economic slowdown. Jaitley, who is preparing to present the budget for the financial year starting April 1, aims to cut the deficit to 4.1% of gross domestic product amid missed revenue goals. The shortfall reached about 90% of the full-year estimate by the end of October, with tax revenue falling 62% short of target. (Bloomberg)

U.S.A

· Americans Gain Confidence As Labor Market Makes Headway: Economy. Greater opportunities to land a job and persistent declines in the cost of gasoline are making Americans feel more hopeful about the economy. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to 92.6 in December, the New York-based private research group said today. While the gain was less than forecast, the gauge is close to the seven-year high reached two months ago. Perceptions of current economic conditions advanced to the highest since February 2008. (Bloomberg)

· U.S. Home Price Growth Slows Further In October: S&P/Case-Shiller. U.S. single-family home price appreciation slowed less than forecast in October, as there were hints of some re-acceleration in home prices in some cities by yearend, according to a closely watched survey released on Tuesday. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 4.5% in October from the prior year, compared with a revised 4.8% increase in September. A Reuters poll of economists forecast a 4.4% increase. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, prices in the 20cities rose 0.8% for the month. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast an increase of 0.4%. However, non-seasonally adjusted prices fell 0.1% in the 20 cities on a monthly basis, Analysts had expected them to be unchanged. (Reuters)

Europe

· Uk House Price Inflation Slows To 13-Month Low: Nationwide. British house prices rose at their slowest annual rate in more than a year this month but the market looks set to recover in 2015 if the economy improves as expected, a survey from mortgage lender Nationwide showed on Tuesday. Nationwide said house prices rose 7.2% in the year to December, the smallest annual increase since November 2013 and slowing for a fourth consecutive month. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 7.5%. (Reuters)

Currencies

· Dollar Pulls Back Against Yen, Steadies Against Euro. The dollar lost ground versus the Japanese yen Tuesday, giving back recent gains as an upbeat year for the U.S. currency draws to a close. Versus the yen, the dollar traded at ¥119.56 from ¥120.69 late Monday in New York. The U.S. currency has climbed 13.6% against the Japanese currency this year. The euro meanwhile continued to plumb two-year lows versus the dollar, fetching $1.2155 in recent action, little changed from $1.2153 late on Monday. It has slumped 11.6% against the greenback this year. The WSJ Dollar Index a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.42 point to 82.64. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the U.S. unit against a basket of six major rivals, slipped to 89.992 versus a late Monday level of 90.207. The pound exchanged hands at $1.5555, compared with $1.5518 on Monday. (Marketwatch)

Commodities

· Brent And Wti See Small Gains As End Of Year Approaches. Crude futures closed up slightly Tuesday, getting some relief from a weak dollar but not making significant strides as traders prepared for the end of the year. The dollar is generally inversely related to the price of oil, and so a small the decline in the dollar index may have lent some strength to crude oil, according Thomas Saal, an analyst with INTL Hencorp Futures. Saal said prices may have also been boosted as traders balanced their positions before the end of the year. The global benchmark Brent settled up 2 cents at $57.90. U.S. crude settled up 51 cents at $54.12 a barrel. Both measures hit 5-1/2-year lows yesterday before rebounding slightly. (Reuters)

· Gold Rises 2% As Year-End Jitters Knock Stocks, Dollar. Gold rose 2% on Tuesday, while silver jumped more than 4% as the dollar weakened and stock markets slid, with concerns over tension between Russia and the West also helping push the metal through key chart levels. Spot gold rose to a session high at $1,209.90 an ounce, up 2.3%, and was up 1.5% at $1,200.20 an ounce by 2:15 p.m. EST (1915 GMT). U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled up $18.50 an ounce, or 1.6%, at $1,200.40. Silver was up 2.9% at $16.21 an ounce, after rising 4.4% to a session high at $16.45. Spot platinum gained 1.9% to $1,215.24 an ounce and spot palladium fell 0.7% to $800.30 an ounce. (Reuters)

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