Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 5 Jan 2015

kiasutrader
Publish date: Mon, 05 Jan 2015, 09:45 AM

Global

· Global Factory Growth Ends 2014 On Low Note: PMI Global manufacturing activity expanded at its weakest pace in more than a year at the end of 2014, even though factories cut their prices at the steepest rate for nine months, a business survey showed on Friday. JPMorgan's Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), produced with Markit, fell to 51.6 in December from November's 51.8. (Reuters)

Asia

· Singapore Economy Grows 1.5% In Q4. Based on advanced estimates, the Singapore economy grew by 1.5% year-onyear (YoY) in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to 2.8% in the previous quarter, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). On a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy expanded by 1.6%, slower than the 3.1% expansion in the previous quarter, it said in a statement. The manufacturing sector contracted by 2.0% YoY in the fourth quarter of 2014, a reversal from the 1.7% expansion in the previous quarter. (Bernama)

· China Factory Slowdown A Force For Disinflation, Asia Faces Softer Demand. China's growth engine looks to have ended last year on a flat note as its massive factory sector sputtered in December, though ebbing price pressures also offered scope for more policy stimulus from Beijing and across much of Asia. The tale was similar from Singapore to South Korea to Indonesia as manufacturers struggled with weak demand, both at home and abroad. China's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped to 50.1 in December from November's 50.3, its lowest level of the year and just above the 50-point level that is supposed to separate growth from contraction. There was better news from China's services sector, which accounts for close to half of the economy, where the PMI edged up to 54.1 in December from November's 53.9. (Reuters)

Americas

· U.S. Factory Sector Suffers End-Of-Year Chill. The U.S. factory sector grew at its slowest pace in six months in December, a sign that weakness in the global economy is weighing on the United States. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 55.5 last month from 58.7 in November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, and the reading remains well above its two-year average. That means the slowdown appears unlikely to derail a broader strengthening of the U.S. economy. (Reuters)

· U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Falls In November. U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in November, held back by a drop in government outlays and by less money spent by businesses on projects other than homes. Construction spending fell 0.3%, the first decline since June, to an annual rate of $975b, the Commerce Department said on Friday. (Reuters)

· Canada Manufacturing Growth Cools To Three-Month Low In December. The pace of growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector slowed in the final month of last year as measures of new orders and employment both pulled back, data showed on Friday. The RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI), a measure of manufacturing business conditions, fell to a seasonally adjusted 53.9 in December from 55.3 the month before. It was the lowest level in three months. A reading above 50 shows growth in the sector. (Reuters)

· Brazil Manufacturing Breaks Slump, Advances Slightly In December: PMI. Brazil's manufacturing activity ended a three-month contraction in December as new orders picked up, though overall growth remained very slight, a private survey showed on Friday. The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for the Brazilian manufacturing sector BRPMIM=ECI rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.2 in December from 48.7 in November. The 50 mark separates contraction from expansion. (Reuters)

Europe

· Italy Dec Factory Activity Shrinks At Fastest Pace In 19 Months: PMI. Italian manufacturing activity shrank in December at the fastest pace in 19 months, a survey showed on Friday, a sign the euro zone's third-biggest economy is still struggling to escape its third recession in six years. The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 48.4 from 49.0 in November, staying below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for a third straight month. (Reuters)

· Italy State Sector Budget Surplus Shrinks In December. Italy posted a state sector budget surplus of 5.1b euros ($6.1b) in December, sharply lower than the 15.58b euros posted in Dec. 2013, weighed down by lower tax revenues, higher payments of bills in arrears an debt servicing costs. The Economy Ministry said the state sector budget deficit for the full year came to 76.8b euros, an improvement of more than 3.5b compared with the figure in 2013, tied to tighter spending. (Reuters)

· Car Sales Slump In France, But Rise In Spain And Italy. France's floundering economy pushed car sales 6.8% lower year-on-year in December, while Spanish sales jumped by 21.4%, helped by a subsidy scheme, and also rose in Italy, according to auto industry associations. The contrasting year-end performance highlights how France has been left out of a fragile recovery in Europe's car sector. Yet the French market did manage to post annual growth in 2014 for the first time since 2009. Registrations for the year rose 0.3% to 1.8million cars, the CCFA auto industry association said. In Spain, 73,440 cars were sold in December and 855,308 in 2014, up 18.4% from 2013 and the best annual performance since 2010, car makers' association Anfac said. In Italy, Europe's fourth-largest car market, new car sales rose 2.35% in December to 91,518 vehicles, the transport ministry said. In all of 2014, Italian car sales were up 4.21% to 1.36 million vehicles, it added. (Reuters)

· German Manufacturing Returns To Growth In Dec: PMI. A boost in new orders helped Germany's manufacturing sector return to growth in December, a survey showed on Friday, fanning hopes for a modest recovery in Europe's largest economy. Markit's Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, which accounts for about a fifth of the economy, rose to 51.2, the same as a flash reading, from 49.5 in November. The November figure was the lowest since mid-2013 and below the 50.0 threshold dividing growth from contraction. (Reuters)

· Germany wants Greece to stay in the euro zone, and there are no contingency plans to the contrary, Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel says. The remarks are an implicit response to that Berlin considers "Grexit" almost unavoidable if the leftwing Syriza opposition party wins Greece's election. Syriza wants to cancel austerity measures and a chunk of Greek debt. Peter Bofinger, an economic adviser to the German government, also warned against Grexit: "There would be many high risks for the stability of the euro zone with such a step. It would let a genie out of the bottle that would be hard to control." (Reuters)

Currencies

· Dollar Index Soars To Nearly 9-Year High. The U.S. dollar soared Friday, building on big gains scored in 2014, on expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan continue to loosen monetary policy in the year ahead. The ICE dollar index rose to 91.11, up from 90.27 in late North American trade on Wednesday and marking its highest level since March 2006, according to FactSet data. The index rose almost 13% in 2014, to mark its best yearly gain since 2005. The shared currency fell to $1.2001, down from $1.2099 on Wednesday, its lowest level since 2010. The WSJ Dollar Index a wider gauge of the dollar, climbed 0.6% to 83.64, its highest level in more than 11 years. Against the Japanese yen, the greenback rose to ¥120.350 from ¥119.79 late Wednesday. The pound changed hands at $1.5334, down from $1.5578. The Australian dollar fell to 80.84 U.S. cents, compared with 81.81 cents on Wednesday. (Marketwatch)

Commodities

· Oil Declines In Thin, Volatile Trading. Global benchmark Brent crude oil closed down nearly a dollar a barrel Friday after a day of choppy trading despite expectations of new investments in the New Year, as strong mid-day rallies in crude fizzled. Brent was down 91 cents at $56.42 a barrel. Earlier, it touched a post-2009 low of $55.48, having averaged around $110 a barrel between 2011 and 2013. Front-month U.S. crude for February delivery settled down 58 cents a barrel at $52.69, before a steep 50-cent drop post-settlement. (Reuters)

· Gold Rebounds From One-Month Low On U.S. Manufacturing Data. Gold rebounded from a one-month low on Friday, as weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data counteracted the impact of a stronger dollar, but still looked set to post its third straight weekly loss. Spot gold fell to its lowest since Dec. 1 at $1,168.25 an ounce after the dollar strengthened, but rebounded to $1,183.76 by 2:33 p.m. EST (17:33 GMT), up 0.2%. Silver was up 0.13% at $15.66 an ounce after posting a 19.3% decline in 2014. Platinum fell 0.7% at $1,194.10 an ounce, having fallen 12% last year. With an 11% jump, palladium was the best-performing precious metal in 2014, mostly on supply concerns from top producer Russia. Prices were up 0.54% at $792.72 an ounce. (Reuters)

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 0 of 0 comments

Post a Comment