Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 9 Jan 2015

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Publish date: Fri, 09 Jan 2015, 09:33 AM

Malaysia

· BNM’s Reserves At RM405.5b As At Dec 31, 2014. The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) amounted to RM405.5b (equivalent to US$116.0b) as at Dec 31, 2014 compared to RM441.9b (US$134.9b) as at end-2013. The reserves level as at Dec 31, 2014 took into account the quarterly adjustment for foreign exchange revaluation changes, BNM said in a statement here. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 8.4 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt, it added. The main components of the international reserves were foreign currency reserves (US$106.7b), International Monetary Fund reserves position (US$0.9b), Special Drawing Rights (US$1.9b), gold (US$1.4b) and other reserve assets (US$5.1b). (Bernama)

· Malaysia-HK Trade To Grow To US$17b. Trade volume between Malaysia and Hong Kong is expected to grow to US$17b for 2014, said Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office Director, Fong Ngai. Fong said Malaysia-Hong Kong trade had been encouraging, registering 15% growth in the last 10 months with Malaysia having a trade surplus against Hong Kong. (Bernama)

· Malaysian Palm Oil Hits 6-Month High On Tight Supply, Monsoon Woes. Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a third day to hit a near six-month high on Thursday, on fears that supplies of the tropical oil will be further tightened by another round of monsoon rains in the No.2 grower. The benchmark March contract hit its highest since July 11 before settling with a 1.7% gain at RM2,369 ($665) per tonne by Thursday's close. The contract hit a high of RM2,379 in late trade. The Malaysian Meteorological Department raised its weather warning on Thursday to an "orange stage" from a "yellow stage", and orecast the states Johor, Pahang, Terengganu and Kelantan to receive heavy rains until the end of the week. Johor and Pahang are the top palm-producing states in Peninsular Malaysia and account for 30% of the country's palm output this year, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. (Reuters)

Asia

· Japan Household Mood Worsens To Levels Before 'Abenomics': BOJ. Japanese households' sentiment worsened in December to levels last seen before premier Shinzo Abe unleashed radical stimulus policies two years ago, a central bank survey showed, underscoring the challenges he faces reviving the economy. The diffusion index measuring how households felt about the current state of the economy stood at minus 32.9 in December, down 12.5 points from September, the Bank of Japan's quarterly survey on people's livelihood showed on Thursday. (Reuters)

Americas

· Consumer Credit In U.S. Increased By $14.1b In November. Consumer borrowing in the U.S. increased in November as an improving economy emboldened Americans to take out school and auto loans. The $14.1 increase in total credit followed a revised $16b gain in October, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. Non-revolving lending accounted for all the gain. (Bloomberg)

· U.S. Jobless Claims Dip; 2014 Layoffs Lowest In 17 Years. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week and job cuts declined sharply in December, suggesting the labor market is tightening. Thursday's reports support views of faster growth this year, driven by consumer spending, despite a faltering global economy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 294,000 for the week ended Jan. 3, the Labor Department said. (Reuters)

· Monthly job cuts fell to their lowest level in 14 years in September, as U.S.-based employers announced workforce reductions totaling 30,477 during the month. As the fourth quarter begins, 2014 is on pace to be the lowest job-cut year since 1997. The September total plunged 24 percent from the 40,010 job cuts announced in August, according to the report Thursday from global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. It was also 24 percent lower than the September total from a year ago, when employers announced plans to cut payrolls by 40,289. (Challengergray.com)

· Brazil's Industrial Output Drops Unexpectedly In November. Brazilian industrial output took an unexpected step backward in November as production of durable goods declined sharply, further damping hopes of a recovery in the longbeleaguered sector. Output at factories and mines BRIO=ECI fell 0.7% in November from October, statistics agency IBGE said on Thursday, defying forecasts for a 0.5% gain in a Reuters survey of 20 analysts. Production fell in 11 of 24 industrial segments, with food products down 3.4% and electric equipment sinking 2.8%. Durable goods retreated 2.1% from October and 11% from November 2013. (Reuters)

· Mexico December Inflation Cools Despite Peso Slump. Mexico's annual inflation rate cooled in December but is still above the central bank's 4% ceiling, amid a deep slump in the peso that threatens to fan consumer prices higher. Inflation in the 12 months through December MXCPIA=ECI eased to 4.08%, national statistics office data showed on Thursday, just below the 4.11% expected in a Reuters poll and down from 4.17% in November. (Reuters)

Europe

· It’s Deja Vu As Carney Holds U.K. Interest Rates. This year is looking a lot like 2014 for Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. With the outlook dominated by a weak euro-area economy that’s showing few signs of recovery, political risks at home and inflation below the 2% target, the Monetary Policy Committee left the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% today. Investors see borrowing costs staying at a record low for the rest of the year. (Bloomberg)

· Greek Unemployment Falls To 25.8% In October. Greece's jobless rate fell to 25.8% in October from an upwardly revised 26% rate in September as the economy emerged from a six-year recession, Greek statistics agency ELSTAT said on Thursday. October's reading was the lowest since August 2012 when unemployment stood at 25.5%. The record high was set in September 2013, when unemployment hit 28%. (Reuters)

Currencies

· Dollar Index Rises For 7th-Straight Session. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose for the seventh-consecutive session Friday, boosted by rising crude-oil prices, a strong performance by U.S. stocks and the expectation that the European Central Bank will soon expand its program of asset purchases. The euro extended more than a week of declines Thursday, falling to another nine-year low, after the European Union Commission’s report on eurozone economic sentiment showed no change from a weak reading in November. The dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, the heaviest of which is the euro, was up 0.48% to 92.3300 Thursday. The shared currency Euro fell to $1.175, its lowest since late 2005, around 8 a.m. Eastern time. It was valued at $1.179 in recent trade, down from $1.183 late Wednesday. The dollar traded at was at ¥119.63, compared with ¥119.16 late Wednesday in New York. The pound traded at $1.51 in recent trade, after hitting an 18-month low of around $1.503 earlier in the session. After reaching its highest level against the krone, one dollar was worth 7.63 krone in recent trade, compared with 7.70 Wednesday afternoon. (Marketwatch)

· Ringgit Rebounds At Last Against Dollar. The ringgit rebounded from its recent four-day drop and rallied from its fiveand-a-half-year low to close higher Thursday against the dollar, a dealer said. At 5 pm, the local note was quoted at 3.5650/5680 against the greenback compared with 3.5800/5820 on Wednesday (8 Jan). The ringgit was also traded mostly higher against other major currencies. It appreciated against the euro to 4.2038/2085 from 4.2484/2518 on Wednesday and gained against the yen to 2.9765/9803 from 3.0064/0083 yesterday. The local unit strengthened against the pound to 5.3603/3659 from Wednesday's 5.4151/4192 and rose against the Singapore dollar to 2.6642/6675 from 2.6786/6805 previously. (Bernama)

Commodities

· Oil Holds Ground As Traders Search For Bottom Of Rout. Global oil prices were little changed for a second straight day on Thursday after better-than-expected U.S. jobs data helped the market hold ground after a 10% loss earlier in the week. But support for oil was likely to be short-lived as market bears continue hunting for a bottom to the second-biggest price rout in crude's history, traders said. Brent crude settled down 19 cents at $51.15 a barrel. It had dropped to $49.66 on Wednesday, its lowest since spring 2009. But U.S. crude finished up 14 cents at $48.79, after plumbing a 5-1/2-year low of $46.83 in the previous session. Brent had lost more than $5, or about 10%, in total in the first two days of this week. (Reuters)

· Gold Nudges Lower As The U.S. Dollar Extends Gains. Gold fell for the second straight day on Thursday, in a choppy session weighed down by a stronger dollar and rising stock markets after being buoyed by expectations the Federal Reserve will be patient in raising interest rates. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting released on Wednesday reassured markets that the central bank was in no hurry to raise interest rates, lifting European shares. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,208.17 an ounce at 2:35 p.m. EST (1935 GMT). U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled down $2.20 an ounce, or 0.2%, at $1,208.50. Among other precious metals, silver was down 1% at $16.35 an ounce, while platinum was up 0.2% at $1,215.49 an ounce and palladium rose 0.4% to $791.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

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