Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 12 Feb 2015

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Publish date: Thu, 12 Feb 2015, 03:08 PM

Malaysia

· Electricity Tariffs Reduced From March 1. The power tariff for consumers in Peninsular Malaysia will be reduced by 2.25sen/kWh from Mar 1 to June 30 this year. Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Seri Dr Maximus Ongkilisaid the decision was made at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday after it was informed that the cost of Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) savings could be passed on to consumers in the form of cheaper tariff amounting to RM726.99 million aftertaking into account the drop in global fuel prices and generation costs. He said the savings of ICPT costs would reduce theelectricity bills of domestic users using in excess of 300 kWh a month, and all consumers in other categories such ascommercial and industry. The tariff reductions would take effect from March 1 to June 30 and the government’s subsidywas expected to be around RM260mil a year. (Bernama/The Star)

Asia

· Chinese Economy More Sustainable Now: China Central Bank. China's economy is now more sustainable anddomestic consumption is steadily rising, Chinese Central Bank Vice Governor Yi Gang told a G20 meeting of financeofficials earlier this week. Finance officials from the Group of 20 leading economies sketched an uncertain outlook for globalgrowth on Tuesday and vowed to use monetary and fiscal policy if needed to stem any risk of stagnation. Yi also wasquoted on the central bank's website on Wednesday as saying that the central bank was closely monitoring China'sproperty market and shadow banking sector, and increasing the transparency of the nation's local government debt.(Reuters)

· Bank of Japan's Sato Sees Moderate Recovery, Nervous Over Debt. Japan's economy is likely to keep recovering at amodest pace, Bank of Japan policymaker Takehiro Sato said on Wednesday, but he said any doubts about thegovernment's fiscal policy could dampen the impact of central bank stimulus. Sato, one of four BOJ board members whohave opposed the bank's 80 trillion yen ($665 billion) a year stimulus drive, said the biggest risk to Japan was that investorsmight demand a higher premium to hold its huge stockpile of government debt. However, he said the country wascontinuing to see its economy slowly pick up. "Japan's economy has continued to recovery moderately," Sato said at aJapanese securities conference in London. "I expect it to continue its moderate recovery trend." He also said the effects ofthe BOJ's 'quantitative and qualitative easing' stimulus program had been increasing but that its impact would be"dampened" if financial markets began to question the fiscal policy of the government. (Reuters)

USA

· U.S. Posts Smaller Budget Deficit in January Than CBO Forecast. The U.S. budget deficit for January was smaller thaneconomists forecast as stronger growth and rising employment boosts tax revenue, Treasury Department figures showed.Spending exceeded revenue by $17.5 billion last month, compared with a $10.3 billion shortfall a year earlier, thedepartment said in a report released today in Washington. That was narrower than the median estimate in a Bloombergsurvey of 20 economists and a Congressional Budget Office forecast that were both for a $19 billion deficit. The imbalanceis forecast to shrink for a fifth straight year in fiscal 2016, marking the longest span of improvement since the surpluses ofthe late 1990s, as falling unemployment helps boost revenue, according to CBO figures released last month. The gap willbe 2.6% of gross domestic product in 2015, down from a peak of 9.8% of GDP in 2009. (Bloomberg)

· U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall in Latest Week - MBA. Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week as interestrates rose, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index ofmortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 9.0% in the week endedFeb 6. The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 10.3%, while the gauge of loan requests forhome purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, declined 6.5%. The refinance share of total mortgage activitydecreased to 69% of applications from 71% the week before. Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 3.84% in the week,the highest level since Jan 9. They were up 5 basis points from 3.79% the previous week. (Reuters)

Europe

· Greece Presents Bailout Plans to EU Finance Ministers. Greece's anti-austerity government is presenting its firstconcrete proposals for an alternative debt plan at an emergency meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels. Thegovernment wants to overhaul 30% of its bailout obligations, replacing them with a 10-point plan of reforms. But EUministers have warned that Greece must abide by existing terms. The EU-IMF bailout for the debt-laden country expires on28 February and Greece does not want it extended. Instead the new Athens government is asking for a "bridge agreement"that will enable it to stay afloat until it can agree a new four-year reform plan with its EU creditors. Thousands of left-wingdemonstrators have rallied in Athens in support of their government's proposition. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras'sgovernment won a confidence vote on Tuesday, with the support of 162 deputies in the 300-seat parliament. (BBC)

· IMF's Lagarde Says Greece is Competent, Thought About Issues. The head of the International Monetary FundChristine Lagarde praised Greek officials on Wednesday after meeting Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis as"competent", but said reaching an agreement would take time. "They are competent, intelligent, they've thought about their issues. We have to listen to them. We are starting to work together and it is a process that is starting and is going to last acertain time," Lagarde told reporters on entering a meeting of euro zone finance ministers devoted to Greece. (Reuters)

· Risk of Contagion from Greece is Low – Standard & Poor’s. The risk of Greece's turmoil spreading to the rest of theeuro zone is low, a senior official at ratings agency Standard and Poor's said in a German newspaper interview onWednesday. "Greece's risk premium has drastically increased again recently but the panic hasn't leapfrogged over to otherformer crisis countries. The risk of contagion doesn't seem to actually be that big," Moritz Kraemer, S&P's chief sovereignratings officer, told Boersen-Zeitung. While he said the risks associated with a country leaving the euro zone were difficult toforesee, he suggested that the euro zone could cope if Greece quit the bloc. "Greece's economy is very weak and its linkswith the rest of the euro zone are even smaller than the value-added suggests," Kraemer said. (Reuters)

· Switzerland Ends 2014 with Unexpected Deficit. Switzerland ended last year with an unexpected deficit after receiptsand expenditure came in below budget, the government said on Wednesday. The government reported a deficit of 124million Swiss francs ($133.92 million) for last year, but had previously expected a surplus of 121 million francs. "The outlookhas deteriorated noticeably because of the lower receipts," the Swiss Federal Council said in a statement. (Reuters)

· Russian Minister Says 2015 Budget Deficit Seen At 3.8% Of GDP. Russian Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said onWednesday that the country's budget would run a deficit this year of around 3.8% of gross domestic product, based on newmacroeconomic forecasts recently released by his ministry. Ulyukayev also told journalists that according to the newforecasts, Russia's budget revenues would be 2.34 trillion rubles ($35.5 billion) lower in 2015 than the amount foreseen inthe state budget passed last year. (Reuters)

Currencies

· Euro Rally Fades as Greek Deal Hangs in the Balance. The euro took a dip early in Asia on Thursday, buffeted by abarrage of conflicting headlines that left investors no clearer on whether Greece may yet secure a new debt agreement withits European lenders. The common currency eased to 135.95 yen, having earlier scaled a three-week peak of 136.70. Italso slipped to $1.1314 from a high of $1.1353. On the sterling, it pulled back to 74.19 pence, but held above a seven-yeartrough of 73.83. Markets had been on tenterhooks during a marathon meeting of euro zone finance ministers. With no realconviction to buy the euro, the dollar index held near a three-week high of 95.115 set overnight. On the yen, thegreenback held firm at 120.22 and within striking distance of a five-week peak of 120.48. Commodity currencies took a turnfor the worse as oil prices slid anew after U.S. stockpiles hit record highs. The Canadian dollar dipped to a near two-weeklow of C$1.2697 per USD, while the Australian dollar drifted down to $0.7716 and back toward the recent six-year troughof $0.7627. (Reuters)

Commodities

· OPEC Producers Cut Oil Prices to Asia in Battle for Market Share. Iraq, Kuwait and Iran joined Saudi Arabia in cuttingtheir March crude prices for Asia, signaling the battle for a share of OPEC’s largest market is intensifying. Iraq’s BasrahLight crude will sell at $4.10 a barrel below Middle East benchmarks, the deepest discount since at least August 2003, theOil Marketing Co. said Tuesday. National Iranian Oil Co. said its official selling price for March Light crude sales will be adiscount of $2.10 a barrel, the widest since at least March 2000, according to a company official who asked not to beidentified because of corporate policy. Kuwait Petroleum Corp. said Wednesday its discount will be $4.10, the biggest sinceAugust 2008. The cuts come after Saudi Arabia, the largest crude exporter, reduced pricing to Asia last week to the lowestin at least 14 years. (Bloomberg)

· Oil Down After Record U.S. Crude Stocks; Brent Below $55. Oil prices fell as much as 3% on Wednesday after U.S.stockpiles hit record highs, and analysts and traders said the market could shed more of a two-week rebound that wasspurred by expectations of lower output. On Wednesday, benchmark Brent oil dropped below the $55-per-barrel supportlevel, settling down $1.77, or 3%, at $54.66 a barrel. U.S. crude closed down $1.18, or about 2%, at $48.84 a barrel.(Reuters)

· Gold Dips as Firmer Dollar Offsets Eurozone Concerns. Gold fell to a one-month low on Wednesday as the dollarstrengthened, while caution prevailed in wider financial markets ahead of a meeting of finance ministers that is set todiscuss Greece's future in the euro zone. Spot prices are down nearly 5% so far this month as the strong dollar andexpectations of an interest rate rise in the United States weighed on investor sentiment. Spot gold was down 1.1% at$1,220.70 an ounce by 1924 GMT, having earlier touched its lowest since Jan. 9 at $1,218.05 an ounce. Spot silver wasdown 0.7% at $16.77 an ounce. Palladium was down 0.5% at $764.72 an ounce, while platinum was down 1% to$1,193.55 an ounce. (Reuters)

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