Asia

· Japan Hobbles Out of Recession with Growth Below Estimates. Japan’s economy expanded less than economists estimated in the fourth quarter, underlining the difficulty in stoking growth while export gains are undermined by weak investment and consumption at home. Gross domestic product grew at an annualized 2.2%, less than a median forecast for a 3.7% increase. Nominal GDP, which is unadjusted for price changes, climbed an annualized 4.5% from the previous quarter. The economy shrank 6.7% in the three months after Abe increased the sales tax in April, and dropped 2.3% in the third quarter, according to Monday’s revised data. Taken for 2014 as a whole, GDP came to a standstill after two years of expansion (Bloomberg)

· Thai GDP Growth Falls Further Behind Neighbours. Thailand’s economy in the fourth quarter beat expectations by expanding 2.3% from a year earlier. At that pace, it’s extending a two-year streak of lagging behind its neighbours in Southeast Asia. Thailand’s gross domestic product expansion has been about half that of its neighbors through much of the period amid political turmoil, including a coup last May and martial law since, plus record flooding in 2011 that triggered a recession as hundreds of factories and some hotels in Bangkok and neighboring provinces were shut for months. Thai GDP increased 0.7% overall in 2014, the slowest in three years as political unrest curbed local consumption and tourism, while lower agricultural prices and cooling global demand hurt exports. (Bloomberg)

· Indonesia Posts Small But Surprising January Trade Surplus of $709 Million. Indonesia posted a trade surplus of $709.4 million in January following a $186.8 million surplus in December, with imports contracting more than expected, the statistics bureau said on Monday. January's imports were $12.59 billion, down 15.59% from a year earlier. Analysts in the poll had expected a 6% contraction. Exports also fell 8.09% to $13.30 billion. (Reuters)

· Taiwan Raises 2015 Growth Outlook, No Deflation Risk Seen. Taiwan slightly raised its 2015 economic growth target to its highest in four years on stronger demand at home, though exports and imports could slow sharply on weakening global demand. The island's export-driven economy has seen solid worldwide demand for the tech gadgets it manufactures, especially as consumers rushed to buy Apple Inc's newest iPhone 6, but the government and analysts have warned of growing risk of slowdown in China and other global economies. The GDP target was raised to 3.78%, its highest since 2011, from preliminary growth of 3.5%, the Directorate General of Budget and Accounting Agency said on Monday. (Reuters)

· China January FDI Grows At Strongest Pace In Four Years. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China grew at its strongest pace in nearly four years in January, surging 29.4 percent from a year earlier to $13.9 billion as investors largely shunned the troubled manufacturing sector and focused on the more resilient services industry. But analysts cautioned about reading too much into economic indicators for January alone, given the strong seasonal distortions caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays, which began on Jan. 31 last year but start on Feb. 19 this year. January FDI rose 4.5 percent from December, the Commerce Ministry said on Monday. In terms of value, January FDI was the highest since June 2014. (Reuters)

 Europe

· Greek Talks With Euro-Area Finance Ministers Break Up. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s 11th-hour effort to strike a deal with Greece was parried by euro-area finance ministers refusing to loosen their grip on the country’s economy. Talks Monday in Brussels ended abruptly and Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis claimed a baitand- switch, saying Juncker’s commission had offered a path forward that euro-area finance ministers then refused to put on the table. Instead, Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem offered a different statement tying Greece to an extension of its existing program. Varoufakis rejected that proposal out of hand. According to seven European officials with direct knowledge of the talks, the meeting unraveled from that point. Dijsselbloem, who leads the finance ministers’ group, halted the proceedings, saying ministers could reconvene on Friday if there’s a breakthrough. “The next step has to come from the Greek authorities,” Dijsselbloem told reporters after the meeting. “They have to make up their minds whether they will ask for an extension.” Varoufakis said Greece had no choice but to refuse the statement on offer. “In the history of the European Union nothing good has ever come out of ultimatum,” he told reporters after the meeting. (Bloomberg)

· Foreign Debt Burden at Heart Of Russian Economic Worries. Looming debt repayments by Russian companies are now central to discussions of Russia's ability to weather the financial shocks caused by low oil prices and Western sanctions, but the picture is more complex than commonly believed. Despite last week's agreement aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, the sanctions are expected to remain for the foreseeable future, perhaps for years if the Ukraine deal fails to lead to a durable peace, leaving Russian companies largely cut off from Western financing. As long as Western banks refuse to lend, many analysts assume the state will need to help companies repay their $550 billion in foreign debts. The whole debt burden "has to all intents and purposes been transferred to the national balance sheet", analysts at London consultancy Trusted Sources said in a recent report. Pessimists therefore worry that even Russia's $375 billion in central bank foreign exchange reserves will eventually run out. (Reuters) 134.57. Against sterling, it came within a whisker of a 7-year trough of 73.69 pence set last week. It was last at 73.87 pence. Renewed weakness in the euro helped lift the dollar index to 94.201, from a one-week low of 93.899. Against the yen, the dollar came close to retesting 118.00 , but managed to recover some ground to last stand at 118.47. It was still off Monday's high of 118.88. Among commodity currencies, the New Zealand dollar was the best performer, reaching a three-week high of $0.7529. In contrast, its Australian peer was flat at $0.7775. (Reuters)

Commodities

· Malaysia Maintains Tax Free Crude Palm Oil Exports. Malaysia has kept tax on exports of crude palm oil at zero for March, a government circular showed yesterday, extending a duty-free policy held since October. The move, which is likely to underpin prices, comes as a surprise as Malaysia's plantation industries and commodities minister said last week the country was planning to resume taxing exports from March. The rate was scrapped from October to December, and later extended to end-February. (Reuters)

· Oil Steady As Libya, Kurdish Worries Offset By Greek Woes. Oil prices were little changed on Monday after touching their highest nearly two months, as gains in the dollar following the collapse of Greek debt talks offset growing violence in Libya and concerns over exports from Kurdistan. Benchmark Brent futures slipped 3 cents to $61.49 a barrel by 3 p.m. EST after reaching an intra-day peak of $62.57 a barrel, the highest since Dec. 22. Prices, which have fallen from $115 in June due to an oil glut, have rebounded by nearly 40 percent from their lows a month ago, aided by a sharp fall in U.S. oil drilling. U.S. March crude futures were unchanged at $52.78 a barrel, with trading volume of just over 100,000 lots, about one-fifth the recent norm due to U.S. Presidents Day. Monday's activity will be registered on Tuesday due to the holiday. (Reuters)

· Gold Gains for 3rd Session on Weak Dollar, Greek Debt Worries. Gold rose for a third straight session on Monday, due to a weaker dollar as a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on how to proceed with Greece's bailout programme got under way. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,230.96 an ounce by 1519 GMT, while U.S. gold for April delivery was up $3.90 at $1,231.00 an ounce. Liquidity is seen thinning through the day due to a national holiday in the United States. Silver was unchanged at $17.27 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.3% to $1,200.74 an ounce, while palladium was up 0.2% at $786.72 an ounce. (Reuters)