Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 18 Feb 2015

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Publish date: Wed, 18 Feb 2015, 09:08 AM

Malaysia

· Agriculture Sector Lost RM299m Because of Floods. Malaysia's agriculture and agro-based industry suffered a loss of RM299m because of the recent floods in several states. Agriculture and Agro-based Industry Minister, Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob said RM194m was lost due to damage to agriculture produce, RM99.5m from infrastructure damage and RM5.5m from damage to assets. "At the same time, 15,403 farmers, livestock breeders and fishermen were affected by the floods, involving 16,342 hectares of agriculture land," he told reporters after presenting financial aid to 937 families affected by floods in the Bera district of Pahang on Tuesday. (Bernama)

· January Vehicle Sales Up 1% At 50,602 Units, Says MAA. Total vehicle sales in January inched up by only one per cent or 329 units to 50,602 units from the 50,273 units recorded in the same month last year, the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) said. However, the sales volume for the month was 22% lower than the previous month due to excessive year-end offers given by car companies in December 2014. "The announcement that car prices would be lower once the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is implemented had caused consumers to hold back purchases," MAA said in a statement here today. On outlook, the MAA said the sales volume for February is expected to be lower than January amid short working period due to Chinese New Year festive holidays. (Bernama) (Bernama)

 Asia

· Indonesia’s Central Bank Cuts Rate to Spur Growth. Indonesia's central bank on Tuesday unexpectedly cut its policy interest rate by 0.25%age points to 7.5% after the recent drop in oil prices eased inflationary concerns. "Such policy is consistent with efforts to control inflation towards its target corridor (of 3 to 5%) in 2015 and 2016," Bank Indonesia governor Agus Martowardojo told a press conference as he announced the first rate cut in three years. Bank Indonesia's move has shifted market views, and some analysts think a further rate cut is possible within the year. The global slump in oil prices has eased inflationary concerns, with the inflation rate dropping from 8.36% in December to 6.96% in January. (Nikkei)

· Singapore’s Economy Grew More Than Initially Estimated in 4Q14. Singapore’s economy grew more than initially estimated last quarter as manufacturing improved, even as the outlook for this year is clouded by an uneven global recovery. Gross domestic product grew an annualized 4.9% in the three months through December from the previous quarter, when it rose a revised 2.6%, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a statement Tuesday. That compares with a January estimate of a 1.6% gain and the median forecast of 2.2% in a Bloomberg News survey of 13 economists. A plunge in oil prices is generating more disposable income in the U.S., Singapore’s third-biggest export destination. The Monetary Authority of Singapore unexpectedly eased policy last month, sending the currency to the weakest level since 2010 against the greenback. (Bloomberg)

· Bank Of Korea Holds Rates, Cautious Tone Lifts Bonds. South Korea's central bank held interest rates steady on Tuesday, as expected, but cautious remarks by its governor about the economic outlook kept hopes alive for a rate cut soon, lifting bond futures. The Bank of Korea's policy board left the policy interest rate unchanged at a record-matching low of 2.0% in a unanimous vote for a fourth consecutive month. Governor Lee Ju-yeol avoided answering a question during a news conference about whether he was as optimistic as in January about the economy's recovery, saying he needs more time. "Lee's remarks were generally neutral in terms of policy implications throughout the news conference and bond traders welcomed the fact that he did not shut the doors to another cut," said Kong Dong-rak, a fixed-income analyst at Hanwha Securities. (Reuters)

· Chinese Home Prices Fall for Ninth Month. The average price of new homes in China's 70 major cities fell 0.4% in January from the month before, marking the ninth consecutive decline. Government data showed that prices in the cities of Beijing and Shanghai also fell more last month than they did in December on an annual basis. China's once red-hot real estate market has been facing headwinds from a slowing economy and oversupply issues. Investors have been turning away from the market and investing in stocks. Home prices fell in 64 of the 70 cities tracked by the National Bureau of Statistics. On an annual basis, prices fell 5.1% in January - marking the fifth consecutive month that prices have fallen from a year earlier. (BBC)

USA

· U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips In February. U.S. homebuilder sentiment fell for a second straight month in February but still showed more builders view market conditions as favorable, the National Association of Home Builders said on Tuesday. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index fell to 55 from 57 the month before, the group said in a statement. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted the index would rise to 58. Readings above 50 mean more builders view market conditions as favorable than poor. The index has not been below 50 since June 2014. (Reuters)

Europe

· Greek Deflation Picks Up In January, Prices Drop For 23rd Month. Greek consumer prices fell 2.8% in January, with the annual pace of deflation accelerating from a 2.6% drop in December, data from the country's statistics service showed on Tuesday. Greece's EU-harmonized deflation rate also picked up, showing prices fell by 2.8% in January, with the reading slightly faster than an average forecast of a 2.7% drop in prices by economists polled by Reuters. Greece's consumer prices fell by an average 1.3% in 2014 compared to a year earlier. (Reuters)

· UK Inflation Rate Falls to Record Low of 0.3% in January. The rate of UK Consumer Prices Index inflation fell to 0.3% in January, its lowest level since records began. Cheaper petrol and lower food prices - helped by a supermarket price war - cut the rate from 0.5% in December, Office for National Statistics figures show. January's figure is the lowest rate of CPI inflation since estimates of the measure began in 1988. The Bank of England said last week that inflation may temporarily turn negative in the spring. Inflation as measured by the Retail Prices Index fell to 1.1% from 1.6% the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said. "Falling prices for motor fuels and food were the main contributors to the slowdown in the rate of inflation," it added. (BBC)

· French PM Skips Parliament Vote to Push Through Reforms. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls defied critics from left and right on Tuesday by declaring he would ram a flagship economic reform bill through parliament by decree, bypassing backbench rebels but exposing his government to a no-confidence vote. The package, which includes rules to broaden trading hours and deregulate some sectors, is aimed at spurring growth and persuading the European Commission to give Paris more time to get its public finances into line with EU rules (Reuters)

· German Investor Morale Hits Highest Level in a Year in February. German analyst and investor sentiment climbed in February for a fourth consecutive month to its highest level in a year, helped by the European Central Bank's bond-buying program, though the Ukraine crisis and Greek turmoil weighed on expectations. Mannheim-based think tank ZEW said on Tuesday its monthly survey of economic sentiment rose to 53.0 in February from 48.4 in January. That was slightly below the Reuters consensus forecast of 55.0. "Quantitative easing by the European Central Bank and unexpectedly high economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 have improved sentiment among financial market experts," said ZEW President Clemens Fuest. (Reuters)

· Employment In German Manufacturing Sector Hit Record High In 2014. The number of people employed in Germany's manufacturing sector rose to a record high of 5.3m at the end of last year, data from the Statistics Office showed on Tuesday, underscoring the strength of the mighty sector of Europe's largest economy. The increase of around 57,000 took staffing levels in the sector to the highest since the data was first collected in 2005, the Office said. Germany's DIHK Chambers of Commerce expect this upward trend to continue, partly thanks to booming exports. (Reuters)

Currencies

· Euro Trades Higher Against Rivals On Upbeat Economic Reports. The euro traded higher against the pound, yen and dollar Tuesday as economic data showed continued improvement in the eurozone. The euro traded at $1.1415, compared with $.1.1335 Friday. The shared currency traded at 137.74 yen, compared with ¥134.06 Friday. It traded at 74.34 pence , compared with 73.83 pence. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index , +0.04% , a measure of the dollar’s strength against a tradeweighted basket of six currencies, fell 0.12% to 94.0880, after finishing lower for the third-consecutive week Friday. After trading lower for most of the Asia trading day, the dollar turned higher against the yen, trading at ¥119.29, compared with ¥118.29. (Market Watch)

 Commodities

· Oil Up From Early Sell-Off as Brent Sets 2015 High. Oil closed up after a weak start on Tuesday, with Brent crude rising to a 2015 high of $63 a barrel as short-covering returned to a market depressed earlier by worries about euro zone stability. Brent oil's front-month contract for April delivery settled up $1.13 at $62.53 a barrel, rebounding from the day's low of $60.27. The session peak of $63 was the highest since Dec. 18. U.S. crude futures for March closed up 75 cents at $53.53, versus an intraday low at $50.81. (Reuters)

· Gold, Silver Drop on Bets Eurozone Will Muddle Through. Gold and silver fell to six-week lows, while platinum fell to the lowest since 2009, on signs that Greek banks will continue to get emergency funding despite a breakdown in debt talks between their government and euro zone partners. The ECB is set to decide on Wednesday whether to maintain emergency lending to Greek banks. Spot gold fell as much as 2.3% to its lowest since Jan 6 to $1,203.03 an ounce in earlier trade and was down 1.9% at $1,208.16 by 1904 GMT. Traders said some of the selling was technical. Silver tumbled 5.2% to a six-week low of $16.24 an ounce. It was down 4.4% at $16.44, while platinum was down 2.2% at $1,171.60 an ounce, after dropping to its lowest since July 2009 at $1,164 an ounce. Palladium was down 0.7% at $780.85 an ounce. (Reuters)

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