Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 24 Feb 2015

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Publish date: Tue, 24 Feb 2015, 09:50 AM

Asia

· Singapore Unveils Robin-Hood Budget With Boost to Top Tax Rate. Singapore took another step toward Western welfare systems and further from low-tax models like Hong Kong with the first increase in its top income tax rate in decades to address a widening wealth gap. While the richest 5% face higher levies, beneficiaries will include senior citizens, who are poised to get bigger payouts. The move, which still leaves Singapore with among the lowest tax rates in developed nations, comes amid speculation the ruling party that’s dominated the city in its 50 years since independence will call an election later this year. “Getting the wealthy to share some of the burden is probably preferred to a goods and services tax increase that affects everyone,” said Wai Ho Leong, an economist at Barclays Plc in Singapore. The top marginal rate will be raised to 22% from 20%, while others in the top 5% of earners will also see a bigger tax bill, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said in his budget speech in Parliament Monday. The move restores the top tax rate to the level it was a decade ago, when the island cut it to attract more foreign executives. (Bloomberg)

· Singapore Inflation Inches Down to -0.4% in January. Inflation eased to -0.4% in January from -0.1% in December, mainly due to a sharp decline in price of oil-related items as well as lower food and services inflation. Private-sector economists polled by Bloomberg had been expecting a 0.3% fall in the Consumer Price Index in January from a year ago. According to a report released by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry on Monday, accommodation cost fell by 1.9%, extending the 1.7% decline in the previous month, due to a soft housing rental market. Private road transport cost fell by 5.0%. Core inflation, which strips out the costs of accommodation and private road transport, edged down to one per cent from 1.5 per cent in December. (Straits Times)

· Philippine Central Bank: Any Rate Hike Need Not Be in Sync with Fed. The Philippine central bank can afford to leave its policy settings on hold for most of this year, and the timing and magnitude of any interest rate hike would not be determined by the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions, its governor said on Monday. The Philippine central bank was tightening policy last year as inflation picked up, and its tone remained hawkish even as many countries around the world eased policy. "It does not have to be in sync with the Fed, neither should it be in the same magnitude as any change in the Fed," Governor Amando Tetangco told Reuters in an interview at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas in Manila, adding the central bank will consider domestic conditions and inflation trends. (Reuters)

· South Korea Central Bank Chief Says Policy Currently Focused on Growth. The Bank of Korea's current monetary policy is focused on recovering economic growth, more so than stabilising inflation, Governor Lee Ju-yeol said to lawmakers in parliament on Monday. He also said the pace of household lending growth was faster than previously expected following the lowering of interest rates last year. "We did expect cutting interest rates would bring about more household borrowing but the lending grew faster than we thought," said Governor Lee Ju-yeol to lawmakers in parliament. The Bank of Korea cut interest rates twice last year in August and October by 25 basis points each. (Reuters)

USA

· U.S. Existing Home Sales at Nine-Month Low, Supply Limited. Home resales fell sharply to their lowest level in nine months in January amid a shortage of properties on the market, a setback that could temper expectations for an acceleration in housing activity this year. The National Association of Realtors said on Monday existing home sales declined 4.9% to an annual rate of 4.82 million units, the lowest level since last April. "Existing home sales are taking a bumpy road towards recovery," said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. The decline in sales, which was across all four regions, came despite the 30-year mortgage rate falling to a 20-month low. It was worse than economists' expectations for a 4.97 million unit-pace. (Reuters)

Europe

· Greece Delays Sending Reforms to Eurozone until Tuesday. Greece will present its economic reform plans to the eurozone on Tuesday, a government official said, missing a Monday deadline for the list which is a condition for extending the country's financial lifeline. The official gave no reason for the delay but said euro zone finance ministers would consider Greece's plans, which include a crackdown on tax evasion and corruption, as scheduled on Tuesday afternoon. In Brussels, a eurozone official said the "content of the letter will not be a surprise" to the eurozone and therefore the Tuesday submission was not a major issue. Greece has said it was working closely with its eurozone partners in drawing up the list. (Reuters)

· German Business Morale Edges Up in Good Sign for First Quarter. German business morale inched up to a sevenmonth high in February, a leading survey showed on Monday, suggesting Europe's largest economy is starting 2015 on a strong footing. Ifo's business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7,000 firms, increased to 106.8 in February from 106.7 in January. That was the highest reading since July, but below a Reuters consensus forecast for 107.7. "German business confidence suggests that the economy has continued the new momentum of the final quarter of 2014 well into the New Year," said Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING. The Ifo survey showed firms felt slightly more downbeat about the current situation than in January but a bit more optimistic about their prospects for the next six months. (Reuters)

Currencies

· Dollar Gains Before Yellen's Testimony, Euro Falls. The dollar rose on Monday against most currencies as investors await clues from Tuesday's testimony from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen before a Senate panel on the timing of a possible interest rate increase. The euro retreated on lingering doubts over whether Greece's four-month bailout extension struck late Friday would lead to a deal to keep Athens solvent. A somewhat disappointing private report on German business confidence spurred further selling in the single currency, analysts said. The index of the dollar against a group of six currencies was up 0.3% at 94.565 after touching 94.915, its highest level in more than a week. Among other major currencies, the Swiss franc lost nearly 1% against the dollar to near five-week lows as some of the safety flows waned on the conditional loan extension to Greece. The euro was down 0.4% at $1.1336 and down 0.5% at 134.75 yen, according to the EBS trading system. The dollar dipped 0.1% against the yen, last traded at 118.88 yen. (Reuters)

Commodities

· Oil Falls 2% On Glut Worries. Crude oil futures fell more than 2% on Monday as investors worried about oversupply and a strong dollar, but heating oil futures jumped 5% due to operational problems at major U.S. refineries. Benchmark Brent crude settled down $1.32 at $58.90 a barrel. U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, settled down $1.36, or 2.7%, at $49.81. (Reuters) · Gold Rebounds from 7-Week Low after U.S. Data. Gold steadied in choppy dealings on Monday, bouncing up from a seven-week low as the dollar pared gains after weaker-than-expected U.S. data raised doubts about whether the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates this summer. Data showed that U.S. home resales dropped to their lowest level in nine months last month. Spot gold had dropped to its lowest level since Jan 9 at $1,191.01 an ounce but was flat at $1,201.96 by 1950 GMT. The metal has posted four straight weeks of declines, dented by a strong dollar, U.S. rate hike expectations and hopes of a deal between Greece and its lenders. Silver rose 0.4% to $16.30 an ounce, while platinum rose 0.04% to $1,162.50 an ounce, turning up after touching a 5-1/2 year low at $1,150.80 an ounce. Palladium rose 0.8% to $783.25 an ounce. Key events for gold prices this week could be Fed Chair Janet Yellen's semiannual address to the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday and a raft of U.S. economic data. (Reuters)

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