Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 25 Feb 2015

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Publish date: Wed, 25 Feb 2015, 09:42 AM

Malaysia

· Fair Assessments By Sovereign Rating Agencies Wanted. Malaysia expects fair assessments by sovereign rating agencies on the back of the country's strong underlying fundamentals at present, said Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz. Speaking to reporters after inaugurating the Maybank Islamic Shariah Centre of Excellence (SCOE) here today, she said Malaysia had a low unemployment rate, at less than 3%. The country also has a strong financial system, steady economic growth path and current account surplus, alongside a low level of external debt and large reserves. "Rising household debt has been on a moderating trend since 2010. All areas of vulnerability have been addressed and we expect rating agencies to take these factors into account," Zeti said. (Bernama)

· BNM Reports International Reserves as at 13 February 2015. The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to RM385.9 billion (equivalent to USD110.5 billion) as at 13 February 2015. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.8 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

Asia

· China's Real Estate Land Use Drops 25.5% in 2014. Official data showed on Tuesday that China's land area used in real estate development fell sharply last year as the property sector hit a rough patch. New home construction used 151,000 hectares of land in 2014, plummeting 25.5% year-on-year, the Chinese Ministry of Land and Resources said in a report. A major contributor to China's economic expansion, the property market has been affected by weak demand and an excess of unsold homes. The real estate market continued its downward trend with new home prices in January, registering monthon- month declines in most cities surveyed. (Xinhua)

 USA

· Yellen: No Rate Hike for Next Couple FOMC Meetings. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen struck a decidedly dovish tone in indicating that it would be a while before the central bank's Open Market Committee makes a move on interest rates. The central bank chief said caution would be used as the jobs picture improves but inflation remains muted. "The FOMC's assessment that it can be patient in beginning to normalize policy means that the Committee considers it unlikely that economic conditions will warrant an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate for at least the next couple of FOMC meetings," Yellen said in prepared remarks before the Senate Banking Committee. Yellen promised that markets would have plenty of notice. "If economic conditions continue to improve, as the Committee anticipates, the Committee will at some point begin considering an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Before then, the Committee will change its forward guidance," she said. (CNBC)

· Growth in U.S. Home Prices Slowed in 2014. Home prices in 2014 saw yearly growth slow to the weakest pace in three years, according to a home price report released Tuesday. The home price index covering the entire nation rose 4.6% in the 12 months ended in December, said the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index report. That is down slightly from 4.7% in November and is the weakest full-year gain since home prices were falling in 2011. The home price index covering 10 major U.S. cities increased 4.3% in the year ended in December from a 4.2% rise in November. The 20-city price index was up 4.5%. That is above the 4.3% advance posted in November. (The Wall Street Journal)

 U.S. Consumer Confidence Pulls Back From Multi-Year High. U.S. consumer confidence fell more than expected in February, pulling back from a multi-year high according to a private sector report released on Tuesday. The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index ofconsumer attitudes fell to 96.4 from an upwardly revised 103.8 in January. The February reading was the lowest for the index since September, and was below economist expectations for a reading of 99.6, according to a Reuters poll. The January figure was originally reported as 102.9 and was the highest since August 2007. (Reuters)

· U.S. Services Sector Activity Jumps in February - Markit. The U.S. services sector expanded in February at its fastest pace since October, with businesses reporting customers boosting orders because of improving economic conditions, an industry report showed on Tuesday. Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary, or "flash," reading of its Purchasing Managers Index for the service sector rose to 57.0 in February from a final reading of 54.2 in January. The report far outpaced forecasts, which called for a February reading of 54.0, according to a survey of economists. A reading over 50 signals expansion in economic activity. (Reuters)

Europe

· Eurozone Backs Reform Plans in Greece Debt Crisis. Eurozone finance ministers have approved reform proposals submitted by Greece in order to obtain a four-month extension of its bailout. The Eurogroup said it had agreed to begin national procedures - parliamentary votes in several states to give the deal final approval. The measures offered by Greece include combating tax evasion and reforming the public sector. The Eurogroup said in a statement: "We call on the Greek authorities to further develop and broaden the list of reform measures, based on the current arrangement, in close coordination with the institutions." The European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB) both stated that the Greek proposals were a "valid starting point". The agreement had "averted an immediate crisis," said European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici. "It does not mean we approve those reforms, it means the approach is serious enough for further discussion," he added. (BBC) ·

Eurozone Inflation Falls Further to -0.6% in January. Consumer prices across the European Union fell in January at the fastest rate since records began in 1997, increasing the risk that the 28-member bloc will slide into deflation. Eurostat on Tuesday said consumer prices in the 28-nation bloc fell 0.5% in January from a year earlier, and confirmed data that showed prices in the eurozone were 0.6% lower. Twenty-three EU members experienced an annual decline in consumer prices in January, up from 16 in December and just four in November. The decline in prices in the 12 months to January was largely due to a sharp drop in energy costs. (MarketWatch)

· Domestic Demand Propels Q4 Expansion in German Economy. Stronger domestic demand drove growth in Europe's largest economy in the fourth quarter while foreign trade and gross capital investment also helped, data from Germany's Federal Statistics Office showed on Tuesday. Seasonally-adjusted data confirmed an earlier flash estimate showing that German gross domestic product rose by 0.7% on the quarter between October and December. Domestic demand added 0.5 percentage points to GDP in the fourth quarter, while foreign trade contributed 0.2 percentage points. Gross capital investment provided a boost of 0.2 percentage points. (Reuters)

Currencies

· Dollar Dips as Yellen Gives No Rate Hike Timing. The dollar weakened slightly against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, erasing earlier gains as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen offered no commitment as to when the U.S. central bank might raise interest rates. The euro found support after euro zone partners approved Greece's reform plan, a requirement for the cash-strapped nation to receive a four-month extension to its bailout. An index of the dollar's value versus a group of six currencies was down 0.11% at 94.463 after being up 0.4%. The greenback initially posted a two-week high against the yen shortly after Yellen's comments at 119.84 yen. Those gains faded and it last traded at 118.88, up 0.08%. The euro rebounded from losses against the greenback on developments on Greece and Yellen's perceived dovish speech. It was up 0.02% at $1.1337, recovering from a session low of $1.1288. It was 0.09% higher against the yen at 134.78 yen. (Reuters)

Commodities

· Oil Turns Lower on Expectations of Crude Oil Inventory Rise. Crude oil futures fell on Tuesday as expectations that this week's reports will show U.S. crude inventories rose again countered supportive news of Libyan oilfields being shut. Prices faltered after being lifted by news the Sarir and nearby oilfields in Libya were shut by a power cut, dealing another blow to exports from the embattled OPEC member. Brent April crude fell 24 cents to settle at $58.66 a barrel, after reaching $60.30. U.S. April crude fell 17 cents to settle at $49.28, off a $50.33 intraday peak. Crude stocks rose 8.9 million barrels to 437 million last week, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. (Reuters)

· Gold Hits 7-Week Low, Then Pares Losses after Yellen Testimony. Gold fell to a seven-week low on Tuesday then pared losses after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is preparing to consider interest rate hikes on a "meeting-by-meeting basis." Spot gold initially fell about 0.8% to a seven-week low of $1,190.91 per ounce as the U.S. dollar rose, then eased, down 0.2% at $1,199.35 an ounce by 1910 GMT. In other precious metals, silver was down 0.3% at $16.25 an ounce, while platinum fell 0.3% to $1,157.50, and palladium was up 0.6% at $789.97. (Reuters)

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