Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 26 Feb 2015

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Publish date: Thu, 26 Feb 2015, 09:37 AM

Malaysia

 · Unemployment Rate Inches Up to 3.0%. The unemployment rate increased to 3.0% in December 2014 as compared to 2.7% in November 2014 but was unchanged compared to the same month last year. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 2.9%, up 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The labour force participation rate experienced an increase of 0.4 percentage points to 67.9% in December 2014 as compared to the previous month. A year-on-year comparison showed that the labour force participation rate was 0.3 percentage points higher as compared to December 2013. (Department of Statistics)

· GST Helps Curtail Black Economy. The Goods and Services Tax to be implemented from April 1 will help reduce the black economy rate to 10% from 30% at present, Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Ahmad Maslan said. "This is one of the merits of the GST," he told reporters after briefing police personnel on the GST and current issues at the Johor Police Contingent Headquarters. Ahmad said according to the World Bank, the black economy (untraceable and untaxable business dealings) amounted to 30% the gross domestic product. (Bernama)

Asia

· Thai January Exports Badly Disappoint, Adding Pressure On Government. Thai exports were far weaker than expected in January, which will renew pressure on the military-led government to boost economic stimulus and on the central bank to cut rates. Exports, worth more than 60% of the economy, fell 3.46% in January on the year, the Commerce Ministry said on Wednesday. That was the biggest fall since August and worse than the most pessimistic expectation in a poll that gave a median forecast for a 2.55% gain. "We probably can't expect exports to help drive economic momentum and have to count on domestic factors," said Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, economist with Kasikorn Research Center. (Reuters)

· Hong Kong Economy Grows 2.2% in Q4, Pledges $4.4 Billion Sweeteners in Post-Protest Budget. Hong Kong unveiled HK$34 billion ($4.4 billion) worth of sweeteners in its budget on Wednesday, including measures to help businesses hit by pro-democracy protests, as it strives to rebuild confidence amid fears the city is losing its competitive edge. Financial Secretary John Tsang announced a cut in taxes on salaries and profits as well as an increase in child allowances to HK$100,000 ($13,000) from HK$70,000 in line with expectations. Tsang added that a 2015-16 land sale program would include 29 residential sites capable of providing 16,000 new homes. Tsang said the economy grew 2.2% in the fourth quarter of last year. That was slightly better than a median expectation for growth of 2.1% among six analysts polled, but marked a slowdown from annual growth of 2.7% in the third quarter. The economy grew 2.3% last year compared with a 2.9% expansion in 2013 and the government forecast growth of 1% to 3% this year. (Reuters)

· China Feb Flash HSBC PMI At 4-Month High, Export Orders Contract. Activity in China's mammoth factory sector edged up to a four-month high in February but export orders shrank at their fastest rate in 20 months, a private survey showed, painting a murky outlook that argues for more policy support. The flash HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) inched up to 50.1 in February, a whisker above the 50-point level that separates growth in activity from a contraction on a monthly basis. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 49.5, little changed from January's final PMI of 49.7. But even as factory activity grew marginally, the survey suggested that manufacturers still faced considerable risks from weak foreign demand and deepening deflationary pressures. While domestic demand picked up slightly, the new export orders sub-index shed three hefty points from January to skid to 47.1, the sharpest rate of contraction since June 2013. (The Star/Reuters)

 · Japan To Continue Financial Aid To ASEAN Countries. Despite financial constraints, the Japanese government will continue with its committment to provide official development assistance (ODA) grants to assist Asean countries with their economic development. Japan pledged to disburse ODA grants of two trillion yen (RM61bil) to Asean countries over five years at the Japan-Asean Commemorative Summit 2013 mainly for enhancing connectivity and narrowing the development gap towards Asean integration this year. ODA is broadly divided into bilateral aid in which assistance is given directly to developing countries and multilateral aid, which is provided through international organisations. “This is what we intend to do now and in the near future. Assisting Asean member countries is one of our top priorities. Japan, by far, is top in disbursing assistance to Asean although funds are now limited,” said Japan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry official Ritsuko Suzuki. (Bernama)

USA

· New Home Sales Steady Near Multi-Year Highs; Supply Up. New U.S. single-family home sales fell only slightly in January despite big declines in the snow-battered Northeast while supply rose to its highest level since 2010, showing hopeful signs for a sluggish housing market. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that sales dipped 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000 units. December's sales pace was revised up to 482,000 units, the highest level since June 2008, from 481,000 units. Sales were likely held back by snow storms in the Northeast, where sales recorded their biggest drop since June 2012. Economists had forecast new home sales, which account for about 9.1% of the housing market, falling to a 470,000-unit pace last month. (Reuters) indicator of home sales, increased 4.6 percent, rising for the first time in six weeks. (Reuters)

Europe

· France Promises New Labour Reforms as EU Gives Guarded Reprieve. France announced plans for fresh labour reforms on Wednesday, after the European Commission granted it a new two-year delay to get its budget deficit below an EU-imposed limit. Paris was spared a fine after it missed a second deadline to puts its finances in order. A years-long standoff between Paris and Brussels has seen French leaders repeatedly miss deficit-cutting targets, arguing excessive budget cuts would undermine efforts to kickstart economic recovery. Prime Minister Manuel Valls said he wanted new labour rules adopted in parliament by the summer, with moves to ease worker representation rules and reduce bureaucratic hurdles that hamper company growth once they hire 50 or more workers. (Reuters)

· French Consumer Confidence at Highest in Nearly Three Years, Unemployment Falls Slightly. French consumer confidence rose to its highest level in nearly three years in February, adding to signs the euro zone's second-largest economy is slowly lifting itself out of stagnation. Households were more optimistic in February than they had been since May 2012, official data showed on Wednesday. The household confidence index rose to 92 from 90 in January, beating forecasts of 91 and reaching its highest level but still well below its long-term average of 100. Separately, the number of unemployed people in France fell slightly in January, the first drop since August. The Labour Ministry said the number of people registered as jobless in mainland France fell by 19,100 last month to 3,481,600, down 0.5% from December and up 4.8% over one year. The jobless category that dropped the most was that of men less than 25 years of age. (Reuters).

Currencies

· Fed Disappoints Dollar Bulls, Aussie Turns to Data. The dollar nursed modest losses early on Thursday, having eased for a second straight session after recent remarks from the head of the Federal Reserve prompted markets to push back the timing of an eventual U.S. interest rate hike. The euro edged up to $1.1362, up from this week's trough of $1.1288, but remained stuck in a $1.12 - $1.15 range held since hitting an 11-year trough of $1.1098 a month ago. Against the yen, the greenback slipped to 118.86 yen, off this week's high of 119.84. Yet, it too has been struggling for direction since peaking at a 7.5-year high of 121.86 yen in early December. The dollar, however, made a clear break lower against both sterling and the Australian dollar. The pound touched a two-month high of $1.5538, while the Aussie dollar popped above 79 U.S. cents for the first time in a month. (Reuters)

 Commodities

· Brent Crude Futures Up 5% as Saudi Sees Improved Demand for Oil. Brent crude oil futures surged 5% on Wednesday, after Saudi Arabia's oil minister said oil demand was growing and data showed Chinese factories were producing more than expected. Falling refined products inventories reported by the government helped lift U.S. crude and countered data showing a larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventory build. Brent April crude rose $2.97 to settle at $61.63 a barrel. U.S. April crude rose $1.71 to settle at $50.99. U.S. crude stocks rose 8.4 million barrels last week to a record 434.07 million, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday, adding 2.4 million barrels at Cushing, Oklahoma. The relatively small gain at Cushing may have helped widen the spread between Brent and U.S. crude to its widest since January 2014, with Brent's premium nearing $11 a barrel. (Reuters)

· Gold Climbs as Fed Signals No Rush To Raise Rates. Gold rose on Wednesday, recovering from the previous day's seven-week low, after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested the Fed was in no rush to raise interest rates. Her comments weighed on the dollar, supporting gold. Spot gold was at $1,201.74 at 1446 GMT, up 0.2%, after hitting a peak of $1,211.80 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled up $4.20 an ounce at $1,201.50. Silver was up 1.6% at $16.47 an ounce. Spot platinum was up 0.8% at $1,167.70 an ounce, while spot palladium was up 1.9% at $805.10 an ounce, off a six-week high of $808.75 hit earlier in the session. (Reuters)

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