Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenang Research - Macro Bits - 2 Mac 2015

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Publish date: Mon, 02 Mar 2015, 12:09 PM

Malaysia

· Jan Domestic PPI Eases 0.4%. Malaysia's domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) for January 2015 eased 0.4% to 104.9 from 105.3 in December 2014, the Statistics Department said today. "The decrease in the overall index was mainly due to the negative changes in two categories -- mining (-10.0%) and electricity and gas (-0.6%)."However, the index for agriculture went up by 4.7%, manufacturing (+0.3%) and water supply (+0.3%)," the department said in a statement. Yearon- year, the domestic PPI decreased 4.8% with the local production index moving down 7.0% while the import price index slipped 0.2%. Meanwhile, the import price index fell 0.2% year-on-year in January 2015 to 106.5 from 106.7 in January last year. (Bernama)

Asia

· Japan’s Output Jumps While Retail Sales Sag, Inflation Slows. Japan’s industrial output increased the most in more than three years while retail sales slid and inflation slowed, underscoring strength in export industries and weak domestic demand. Production jumped 4% in January from the previous month, exceeding forecasts with the biggest gain since June 2011, according to trade ministry data. Retail sales fell 1.3%, household spending dropped and the central bank’s main inflation measure slowed to 0.2%, excluding sales-tax effects. (Bloomberg)

 · Japan May Delay Second Sales Tax Hike Again If Crisis Occurs: PM Abe. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Friday the government may further delay another sales tax increase if an unexpected event such as another global financial crisis or a huge earthquake occurs. Abe, speaking to parliament, said a sales tax hike to 8% from 5% last April weighed on people's minds. "Consumer sentiment was surely dampened," Abe said. The government had initially planned a second tax increase for October this year, but recently postponed it to April 2017 due to the weak economy. (Reuters)

· China Steps Up Easing With Second Rate Cut In Three Months. China’s central bank cut benchmark interest rates for the second time in three months as disinflation gives room to step up support for the nation’s slowing economy. The oneyear deposit rate will be lowered by 25 basis points to 2.5% and the one-year lending rate will also drop by a quarter percentage point to 5.35% on March 1, the Beijing-based People’s Bank of China said on its website late Saturday. (Bloomberg)

· China Factory Activity Shrinks Again In February. Hours after China's central bank cut interest rates to battle slowing growth and rising deflationary risk, an official survey showed that activity in China's factory sector contracted for a second straight month in February. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) inched up to 49.9 in February from January's 49.8, a whisker below the 50-point level separating growth from contraction on a monthly basis, but nevertheless above more pessimistic analyst forecasts for a 49.7 reading. The new reading ended a four-month streak of declining numbers, and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the rise should be viewed more positively as it occurred despite the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday, during which PMI usually contracts. (Reuters)

· India Budget To Boost Investment. Indian PM Narendra Modi's government has unveiled a business-friendly budget aimed at attracting greater investment for the economy. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley announced an unprecedented corporate tax cut, in the government's first full budget. But he also proposed major benefits for the poor, introducing a universal social security scheme. India will grow at a rate of more than 8% during 2015-16, a key economic report said ahead of the budget. (BBC)

USA

· U.S. Economy Slowed In Fourth Quarter, But Growth Outlook Still Favourable. U.S. economic growth braked more sharply than initially thought in the fourth quarter amid a moderate increase in business inventories and a wider trade deficit, but strong domestic demand brightened the outlook. Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2% annual pace, revised down from the 2.6% pace estimated last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. The economy grew at a 5% rate in the third quarter. Growth is poised to pick up in the first quarter now that the threat of an inventory overhang has diminished. However, an exceptionally cold and snowy February, as well as reductions in oil and gas drilling, could limit the pace of expansion. (Reuters)

· U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops From 11-Year Peak In February. U.S. consumer sentiment fell from an 11-year high in February, weighed down by an unusually severe winter, a survey released on Friday showed. The University of Michigan's final February reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment was 95.4, sliding from January's 98.1, which was the highest since January 2004. February's final number, however, was higher than the initial estimate of 93.6 released in the middle of the month, and was stronger than the market forecast of 94.0. The survey's barometer of current economic conditions fell to 106.9 from 109.3 in January, but beat a forecast of 103. The report's gauge of consumer expectations also slipped to 88 from 91, but was roughly in line with forecasts for this metric. (Reuters)

· U.S. Pending Home Sales Hit One-And-A-Half-Year High In January. Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes rose to their highest level in 1-1/2 years in January, a hopeful sign that the sluggish housing recovery may be gaining speed. The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index rose 1.7% last month, a gain that more than reversed a December slide. In addition, the drop in December was much less severe than previously thought, with pending sales declining just 1.5% as opposed to the previously reported 3.7% drop. (Reuters)

Europe

· Greek Economy Shrinks 0.4% Quarter-On-Quarter In Last Quarter Of 2014. Greece's economy contracted more than originally estimated in the last quarter of 2014 compared with the previous three-month period, a revised estimate by the ELSTAT statistics service showed on Friday. The estimate of gross domestic product, based on seasonally adjusted data, showed the economy shrank 0.4% in October to December. This was worse than a flash estimate of a 0.2% drop made earlier this month, and growth of 0.7% in the third quarter. Reuters)

· Greece Debt: Pm Alexis Tsipras Rules Out Third Bailout. Greece will not need a third international debt bailout when its current programme ends in four months, the country's prime minister has said. Alexis Tsipras vowed his government would "start working hard" to change the country, which is saddled with a debt 175% of its GDP. Greece has already received two bailouts since 2010, totalling 240bn euros (£188bn; $272bn). Germany's parliament ratified a four-month extension on Friday. (BBC)

· French Consumer Spending Data Fuels Hope For Recovery. French consumer spending rose 0.6% in January from December, data released on Friday showed, an indication that the traditional driver of the country's weak economy is showing signs of life. Among the areas of growth in household outlays were purchases of durable goods, up 1.9%, and cars, up 3.2%, the INSEE statistics agency said. (Reuters)

· German Negotiated Wages Rise At 3.2% 2014. German negotiated wages including special payments climbed by 3.2% on average last year - the biggest increase since the statistics were first compiled in 2010 - boding well for private consumption to drive growth this year. The Federal Statistics Office revised up its original estimate by 0.1%age points. Wages for the roughly 19 million workers covered by negotiated wage deals rose more than three times as steeply as inflation, which was at 0.9% on average last year. The increase was far stronger than in 2013, when workers under collective wage agreements had a 2.4% pay hike and in 2012, when their paychecks increased by 2.7%. (Reuters)

Currencies

· U.S. Dollar Rings Up Modest February Gain. The U.S. dollar index posted a monthly gain after spending much of February in consolidation mode as investors await further signals on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate increase move. The ICE dollar index which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, traded at 95.256, up from a level of 95.150 in North American trade late Thursday and near a level last seen in 2003. For the month, the index rose 0.4%. The euro traded at $1.1197, little changed from its level in late North American trade on Thursday. The dollar was at ¥119.63 compared with ¥119.49 late Thursday in New York. (Market Watch)

Commodities

· Oil Up Sharply, Posts First Monthly Gain Since June. Crude oil rose sharply on Friday as Brent and U.S. futures posted their first monthly gains since June, supported by an improving demand outlook and supply outages. Brent crude rose $2.53 to $62.58 a barrel. February's 18% gain was the biggest monthly percentage rise since May 2009. U.S. crude rose $1.59 to settle at $49.76, managing a 3.1% February gain. (Reuters)

· Gold Up After U.S. Data, Set For Biggest Monthly Loss Since Sept. Gold rebounded on Friday as mixed U.S. data tempered expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike this year but was still set for its biggest monthly loss since September on a steady dollar and multiyear highs for European shares. Initially lower, spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,212.10 an ounce by 2:14 p.m. EST (1914 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled up $3 to $1,213.10 an ounce. Spot prices have gained 0.8% on the week, but have fallen 5.5% in February. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $16.56 an ounce. Palladium rose 1.1% to $815.95 an ounce, and platinum was up 0.9% at $1,183 an ounce. (Reuters)

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